Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will face off in the Round Robin of the the Nitto ATP Finals for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 2:30 pm on Centre Court . In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.64
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.26
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev
This will be the 5th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev clash against each other. The head to head is 2-2 for Alcaraz and Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they locked horns, Medvedev won 7-6(3) 6-1 3-6 6-3 in the semifinal in at the U.S. Open back in September 2023.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz – U.S. Open 08-September-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29-6 | 13-2 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Carlos got to the Round Robin after defeating Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-2.
In the previous match, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Rublev (7-5 6-2). During the match, Alcaraz scored 65 points vs Rublev’s 43. Carlos was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz made 5 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was very effective on serve to win 94% (32/34) of his 1st serve and 62% (8/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alcaraz broke Rublev 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 6 years having won 79% of his matches (232-62). 1-2 on indoor hard courts in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a composed17-9 win-loss record in the last 6 years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Buenos Aires where he defeated Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Indian Wells where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Barcelona where he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where he defeated Jan-Lennard Struff in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and in London where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-4 and at the Wimbledon where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4.
Alcaraz has a composed 64-11 win-loss record in 2023, 1-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
The Spaniard has never competed in this tournament before.
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-9 | 18-4 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Daniil reached the Round Robin after defeating Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-2 and Alexander Zverev 7-67 6-4.
In the previous match, Medvedev had a good straight sets win against Zverev (7-67 6-4). During the match Medvedev scored 73 points vs Zverev’s 64. Daniil was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Talking about serving, Medvedev fired 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was pretty effective on serve to win 78% (40/51) of his 1st serve and 53% (10/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Daniil was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Zverev twice.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he overcame Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he overcame Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Miami where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Rome where he beat Holger Rune in the final 7-5 7-5.
The Russian has an aggregate 66-16 win-loss record in 2023, 11-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nitto ATP Finals
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 20 | 41 |
| Pts | 65-43 | 148-121 |
| Total Points | 108 | 269 |
| Winners | 32 | 70 |
| %Winners | 49% | 47% |
Alcaraz played 1 match while Medvedev competed in 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Alcaraz has played 2 set(s) less than Medvedev (2 vs 4). Therefore, Alcaraz played 21 games less than Medvedev. Alcaraz scored 32 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Daniil blasted 70 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 7 |
| 1st in | 34/47 | 87/134 |
| %1st in | 72% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 32/34 | 70/87 |
| %1st pts | 94% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 8/13 | 24/47 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 51% |
Alcaraz bagged 5 aces . Medvedev made 14 aces (7 per match). Alcaraz won 94% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 5 |
| Converted | 3/6 | 5/12 |
| % Converted | 50% | 42% |
| Conceded | 0 | 11 |
| Saved | 0 | 10 |
| % Saved | 0% | 91% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
The Spaniard broke his opponent 3 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Spaniard extremely effective on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 0 break points. Daniil broke his opponents 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||
| Round Robin Rublev | Round Robin Zverev | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-2 | 6-73 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 32 | 52 | |
| pts | 65-43 | – | 65-43 | |
| Total points | 108 | 0 | 108 | |
| Winners | 32 | 32 | ||
| %Winners | 49% | 0% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1st in | 34/47 | / | 34/47 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 0% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 32/34 | / | 32/34 | |
| % 1st pts | 94% | 0% | 94% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/13 | / | 8/13 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 0% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | ||
| Converted | 3/6 | / | 3/6 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 0% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | ||
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/ | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | ||
| Medvedev | ||||
| Round Robin Zverev | Round Robin Rublev | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-67 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 18 | 41 | |
| pts | 73-64 | 75-57 | 148-121 | |
| Total points | 137 | 132 | 269 | |
| Winners | 40 | 30 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 55% | 40% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 10 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 51/70 | 36/64 | 87/134 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 56% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 40/51 | 30/36 | 70/87 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 83% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/19 | 14/28 | 24/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 50% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Converted | 2/2 | 3/10 | 5/12 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 30% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 7/7 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Tennis Scores in Nitto ATP Finals
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (7-61 4-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Rohan Bopanna/Matthew EbdenBopanna/Matthew Ebden – Rinky Hijikata/Jason Murray KublerHijikata/Jason Murray Kubler (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Andrey RublevRublev (7-5 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Rajeev Ram/Joe SalisburyRam/Joe Salisbury – Wesley Koolhof/Neal SkupskiKoolhof/Neal Skupski (6-3 3-6 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Holger RuneRune – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (2-1 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Taylor FritzFritz (6-3 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz (6-73 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Wesley Koolhof/Neal SkupskiKoolhof/Neal Skupski – Rinky Hijikata/Jason Murray KublerHijikata/Jason Murray Kubler (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Ivan Dodig/Austin KrajicekDodig/Austin Krajicek – Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin (2-6 6-3 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrey RublevRublev – Alexander ZverevZverev (3-5) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (2-2) – H2H and prediction