Thiago Moura Monteiro and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will clash against each other in the quarter of the Montevideo Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 6:00 pm on CANCHA CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Thiago Moura Monteiro who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Thiago Moura Monteiro is the pick to win this match.
Thiago Moura Monteiro -> 1.68
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 2.12
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Prediction and head to head Thiago Moura Monteiro vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli
This will be the 2nd time that Thiago Moura Monteiro and Camilo Ugo Carabelli square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Moura Monteiro (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Moura Monteiro won 3-6 6-4 6-4 in the final in the Campinas Challenger back in October 2023.
Thiago Moura Monteiro
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-30 | 3-4 | 23-25 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-28 | 1-3 | 33-17 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-30 | 3-7 | 30-22 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 43-33 | 8-8 | 28-16 | 4-7 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-27 | 8-8 | 25-18 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 131, the Brazilian got to the quarter after beating Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco 6-0 6-4 and Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 7-5 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Moura Monteiro had a good straight sets win against Rodriguez Taverna (7-5 6-3). During the match, Moura Monteiro scored 75 points vs Rodriguez Taverna’s 58. Moura Monteiro was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Regarding the service games, Moura Monteiro made 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Thiago Moura Monteiro lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Moura Monteiro put 67% of his first serves in, winning 87% (34/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (8/19) on the 2nd serve. The Brazilian broke Rodriguez Taverna 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Moura Monteiro hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to conquer 59% of the points he played.
Moura Monteiro has favorable record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (367-277). 28-21 on clay in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Moura Monteiro has a composed 305-193 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Campinas Challenger where he defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the final 3-6 6-4 6-4.
The Brazilian has an aggregate 32-29 win-loss record in 2023, 28-21 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Montevideo Challenger
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33-29 | 5-9 | 27-14 | 1-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 58-30 | 6-5 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 144, Ugo Carabelli got to the quarter after defeating Federico Coria 7-63 6-0 and Elias Ymer 6-2 6-76 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Camilo defeated Ymer (6-2 6-76 6-1). During the match Ugo Carabelli scored 106 points vs Ymer’s 81. Ugo Carabelli was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
About the serving games, Ugo Carabelli recorded 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Camilo Ugo Carabelli was extremely efficient on serve to win 75% (38/51) of his 1st serve and 58% (19/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Camilo broke Ymer 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was conquering the title the Antofagasta Challenger where he defeated Tristan Boyer in the final 3-6 6-1 7-5.
Camilo has a compiled 41-25 win-loss record in 2023, 41-23 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Montevideo Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Moura Monteiro | Ugo Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 37 | 47 |
| Pts | 137-96 | 181-136 |
| Total Points | 233 | 317 |
| Winners | 55 | 64 |
| %Winners | 40% | 35% |
Both Moura Monteiro and Ugo Carabelli played 2 matches. At the moment, Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost 1 set while Thiago Moura Monteiro hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Moura Monteiro has played 1 set(s) less than Ugo Carabelli (4 vs 5). Therefore, Moura Monteiro played 10 games less than Ugo Carabelli. The Brazilian scored 55 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Camilo bagged 64 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Moura Monteiro | Ugo Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 3 |
| 1st in | 66/102 | 88/146 |
| %1st in | 65% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 55/66 | 64/88 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 21/36 | 31/58 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 53% |
Moura Monteiro blasted 8 aces (4 per match). Ugo Carabelli struck 6 aces (3 per match). Moura Monteiro won 83% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Ugo Carabelli won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Moura Monteiro | Ugo Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 12 |
| Converted | 8/16 | 12/25 |
| % Converted | 50% | 48% |
| Conceded | 6 | 8 |
| Saved | 5 | 3 |
| % Saved | 83% | 38% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 5 |
Thiago broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Thiago surrendered his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. Camilo broke his opponents 12 times with a 48% conversion rate. Camilo conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 38% of the break points that he conceded.
| Moura Monteiro | ||||
| R1 Alejandro Dellien Velasco |
R2 Rodriguez Taverna |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 21 | 37 | |
| pts | 62-38 | 75-58 | 137-96 | |
| Total points | 100 | 133 | 233 | |
| Winners | 21 | 34 | 55 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 45% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 6 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 27/44 | 39/58 | 66/102 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 67% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 21/27 | 34/39 | 55/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 87% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/17 | 8/19 | 21/36 | |
| % 2nd pts | 76% | 42% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/9 | 8/16 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 44% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 2/3 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 84% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ugo Carabelli | ||||
| R1 Coria |
R2 Ymer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-0 | 6-2 6-76 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 28 | 47 | |
| pts | 75-55 | 106-81 | 181-136 | |
| Total points | 130 | 187 | 317 | |
| Winners | 26 | 38 | 64 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 36% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 37/62 | 51/84 | 88/146 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 61% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 26/37 | 38/51 | 64/88 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 75% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/25 | 19/33 | 31/58 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 58% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 12 | |
| Converted | 6/12 | 6/13 | 12/25 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 46% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 2 | 8 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 0/2 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 0% | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLLWLWLL
LWLLLWLLLL Tennis Scores in Montevideo Challenger
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hugo DellienDellien – Marcelo Tomas Barrios VeraTomas Barrios Vera (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
