Taro Daniel and Luca Nardi will clash against each other in the final of the Matsuyama Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Taro Daniel who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Taro Daniel is the pick to win this match.
Taro Daniel -> 1.54
Luca Nardi -> 2.4

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Taro Daniel vs. Luca Nardi

This will be the 2^nd time that Taro Daniel and Luca Nardi play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Daniel (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Daniel won 6-3 6-3 in the qualifications in at the Wimbledon back in June 2023.

Taro Daniel

Ranked no. 86, the Japanese reached the final after defeating Shunsuke Nakagawa 6-1 6-2, Moez Echargui 6-2 3-6 6-2, Yu Hsiou Hsu 6-2 3-6 7-5 and August Holmgren 7-6⁵ 6-2.

In the semifinal, Taro had a good straight sets win against Holmgren (7-6⁵ 6-2). During the match, Daniel scored 67 points vs Holmgren’s 51. The Japanese was pretty aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Regarding the service games, Daniel fired 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Taro Daniel was extremely effective on serve to win 86% (31/36) of his 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Taro broke Holmgren twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Taro has dropped 2 set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.

Daniel has good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (374-280). 34-15 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Daniel has a compiled 153-111 match record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Sydney Challenger where he beat Marc Polmans in the final 6-2 6-4.

Taro has a compiled 45-29 win-loss record in 2023, 34-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Matsuyama Challenger

Taro has never competed in this tournament before.

Luca Nardi

Ranked no. 143, Luca got to the final after defeating Seong Chan Hong 7-5 3-6 7-6⁴, James McCabe 6-4 6-4, Bu Yunchaokete 7-5 6-3 and Geoffrey Blancaneaux 6-3 6-3.

In the semifinal, Nardi had a good straight sets win against Blancaneaux (6-3 6-3). During the match Nardi scored 69 points vs Blancaneaux’s 53. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about serving, Nardi made 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Luca Nardi lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Nardi put 64% of his first serves in, winning 84% (27/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (8/18) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Blancaneaux 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title the Porto Challenger where he defeated Joao Sousa in the final 5-7 6-4 6-1.

Nardi has an aggregate 34-32 win-loss record in 2023, 17-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Daniel	Nardi
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	9
Tot Games	90	93
Pts	298-245	318-275
Total Points	543	593
Winners	112	134
%Winners	38%	42%

Both Daniel and Nardi played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Taro Daniel lost 2 sets, while Luca Nardi lost 1 set. Daniel has played 1 set more than Nardi (10 vs 9). However, it’s interesting to notice that Daniel played 3 games less than Nardi. Daniel scored 112 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Luca made 134 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Daniel	Nardi
Aces	14	17
Avg per match	3.5	4.3
1st in	153/258	174/268
%1st in	59%	65%
1st pts	112/153	134/174
%1st pts	73%	77%
2nd pts	61/105	50/94
%2nd pts	58%	53%

Daniel bagged 14 aces (3.5 per match). Nardi managed to score 17 aces (4.3 per match). Daniel won 73% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Daniel	Nardi
Won	18	13
Converted	18/41	13/35
% Converted	44%	37%
Conceded	13	16
Saved	6	11
% Saved	46%	69%
Times Broken	7	5

Daniel broke his opponents 18 times with a 44% conversion rate. Daniel surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 46% of the break points that he conceded. Nardi broke his opponents 13 times with a 37% conversion rate. Luca conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.

Daniel
	R1 Nakagawa	R2 Echargui	1/4 Hsiou	1/2 Holmgren	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-2 3-6 6-2	6-2 3-6 7-5	7-65 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	3	2	10
Tot Games	15	25	29	21	90
pts	63-41	83-68	85-85	67-51	298-245
Total points	104	151	170	118	543
Winners	22	26	33	31	112
%Winners	35%	31%	39%	46%	38%
SERVE
Aces	2	2	6	4	14
Double Faults	2	0	1	1	4
1st in	27/51	39/73	51/79	36/55	153/258
% 1st in	53%	53%	65%	65%	59%
1st pts	22/27	26/39	33/51	31/36	112/153
% 1st pts	81%	67%	65%	86%	73%
2nd pts	14/24	19/34	14/28	14/19	61/105
% 2nd pts	58%	56%	50%	74%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	6	6	2	18
Converted	4/11	6/10	6/15	2/5	18/41
Converted %	36%	60%	40%	40%	44%
Conceded	3	6	4	0	13
Saved	3/3	3/6	0/4	0/0	6
Saved %	100%	50%	0%	–	38%
Times Broken	0	3	4	0	7

Nardi
	R1 Chan Hong	R2 McCabe	1/4 Yunchaokete	1/2 Blancaneaux	Total
Score	7-5 3-6 7-64	6-4 6-4	7-5 6-3	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	2	2	9
Tot Games	34	20	21	18	93
pts	99-102	78-61	72-59	69-53	318-275
Total points	201	139	131	122	593
Winners	44	36	27	27	134
%Winners	44%	46%	38%	39%	42%
SERVE
Aces	0	5	10	2	17
Double Faults	6	2	2	1	11
1st in	61/92	47/67	34/59	32/50	174/268
% 1st in	66%	70%	58%	64%	65%
1st pts	44/61	36/47	27/34	27/32	134/174
% 1st pts	72%	77%	79%	84%	77%
2nd pts	15/31	10/20	17/25	8/18	50/94
% 2nd pts	48%	50%	68%	44%	53%
Breaks
Won	3	3	3	4	13
Converted	3/7	3/7	3/8	4/13	13/35
Converted %	43%	43%	38%	31%	37%
Conceded	6	3	2	5	16
Saved	3/6	2/3	2/2	4/5	11
Saved %	50%	67%	100%	80%	74%
Times Broken	3	1	0	1	5

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Taro DanielDaniel – (1-0) – H2H and prediction