Thai Kwiatkowski and Aidan Mchugh will play each other in the 2nd round of the Knoxville Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 1:30 pm on COURT 2. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Thai Kwiatkowski who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Thai Kwiatkowski is the pick to win this match.
Thai Kwiatkowski -> 1.7
Aidan Mchugh -> 2.06
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Prediction and head to head Thai Kwiatkowski vs. Aidan Mchugh
This will be the 2nd time that Thai Kwiatkowski and Aidan Mchugh face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Kwiatkowski (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they competed against each other, Kwiatkowski won 7-5 3-6 7-6(5) in the qualifications in the Chicago Challenger back in July 2023.
Thai Kwiatkowski
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21-13 | 16-4 | 1-6 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-24 | 23-15 | 7-3 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-24 | 5-9 | 9-6 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 11-9 | 11-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 355, Thai reached the 2nd round after beating Chris Rodesch 3-6 6-3 6-4, Christian Harrison 6-1 6-3 and Strong Kirchheimer 6-75 6-2 6-4.
In the 1st round against Kirchheimer, Thai recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 6-2 6-4). During the match, Kwiatkowski scored 115 points vs Kirchheimer’s 97. Thai was exceptionally aggressive to blast 58 winners.
Regarding the service games, Kwiatkowski recorded 18 aces and he committed only 9 double faults. Thai Kwiatkowski lost the serve twice and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Kwiatkowski put 66% of his first serves in, winning 77% (58/75) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (15/38) on the 2nd serve. Thai broke Kirchheimer 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).
Kwiatkowski has favorable match record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (202-142). 5-4 on indoor hard courts in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Kwiatkowski has a composed 28-25 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
Thai’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M15 Sunrise and M15 Las Vegas.
Kwiatkowski has a compiled 35-22 win-loss record in 2023, 5-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Knoxville Challenger
Aidan Mchugh
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14-17 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| 2023 | 52-30 | 39-20 | 0-0 | 13-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-26 | 11-10 | 0-0 | 23-12 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 52-28 | 34-15 | 7-5 | 10-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-13 | 4-8 | 3-2 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 365, the Brit reached the 2nd round after defeating Alexander Cozbinov 3-6 7-5 6-3.
In the 1st round against Cozbinov, Mchugh recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-5 6-3). During the match Mchugh scored 100 points vs Cozbinov’s 99. Mchugh was exceptionally aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about serving, Mchugh recorded 9 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Aidan Mchugh lost the serve 4 times and he saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Mchugh put 62% of his first serves in, winning 64% (44/69) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (18/43) on the 2nd serve. Aidan broke Cozbinov 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Aidan’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M25 Champaign,M25 Edwardsville and M25 Madrid.
Aidan has a composed 51-28 win-loss record in 2023, 12-8 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Knoxville Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kwiatkowski | Mchugh |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 75 | 30 |
| Pts | 272-220 | 100-99 |
| Total Points | 492 | 199 |
| Winners | 122 | 44 |
| %Winners | 45% | 44% |
Kwiatkowski played 3 matches while Mchugh competed in 1 match. Kwiatkowski started his run from the qualifications while Mchugh had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Thai Kwiatkowski conceded 2 sets, while Aidan Mchugh lost 1 set. Kwiatkowski has played 5 sets more than Mchugh (8 vs 3). Therefore, Kwiatkowski played 45 games more than Mchugh. Thai scored 122 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Mchugh managed to score 44 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kwiatkowski | Mchugh |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 27 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 9 | 9 |
| 1st in | 154/244 | 69/112 |
| %1st in | 63% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 122/154 | 44/69 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 64% |
| 2nd pts | 44/90 | 18/43 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 42% |
Kwiatkowski scored 27 aces (9 per match). Mchugh bagged 9 aces . Kwiatkowski won 79% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Mchugh won 64% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 42% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kwiatkowski | Mchugh |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 5 |
| Converted | 12/26 | 5/10 |
| % Converted | 46% | 50% |
| Conceded | 16 | 16 |
| Saved | 12 | 12 |
| % Saved | 75% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 |
The American broke his opponents 12 times with a 46% conversion rate. Kwiatkowski conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Aidan broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. Mchugh conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Kwiatkowski | |||||
| Q1 Rodesch |
Q3 Harrison |
R1 Kirchheimer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | 6-1 6-3 | 6-75 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 16 | 31 | 75 | |
| pts | 94-84 | 63-39 | 115-97 | 272-220 | |
| Total points | 178 | 102 | 212 | 492 | |
| Winners | 45 | 19 | 58 | 122 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 30% | 50% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 3 | 18 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 2 | 9 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 55/81 | 24/50 | 75/113 | 154/244 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 48% | 66% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 45/55 | 19/24 | 58/75 | 122/154 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 79% | 77% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/26 | 16/26 | 15/38 | 44/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 62% | 39% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 2/8 | 5/6 | 5/12 | 12/26 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 83% | 42% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 1/2 | 7/9 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 50% | 78% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Mchugh | |||||
| R1 Cozbinov |
Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-5 6-3 | ||||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |||
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | |||
| pts | 100-99 | 100-99 | |||
| Total points | 199 | 199 | |||
| Winners | 44 | 44 | |||
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |||
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 9 | 9 | |||
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |||
| 1st in | 69/112 | 69/112 | |||
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |||
| 1st pts | 44/69 | 44/69 | |||
| % 1st pts | 64% | 64% | |||
| 2nd pts | 18/43 | 18/43 | |||
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 42% | |||
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |||
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/10 | |||
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |||
| Conceded | 16 | 16 | |||
| Saved | 12/16 | 12 | |||
| Saved % | 75% | 25% | |||
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |||
Head 2 Head
WLLLLLLWLL
LLWLLWLWLW Tennis Scores in Knoxville Challenger
- Tennys SandgrenSandgren – Brandon HoltHolt (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Gabriel DebruDebru (6-3 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Denis KudlaKudla – Martin DammDamm (7-64 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander RitschardRitschard – Mitchell KruegerKrueger (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander RitschardRitschard – Tennys SandgrenSandgren (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Thai KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski – Aidan MchughMchugh (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Beibit ZhukayevZhukayev – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
