Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will square off in the semifinal of the WTA Finals for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 6:30 am on Estadio Paradisus. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.57
Aryna Sabalenka -> 2.41
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek
This will be the 9th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek clash against each other. The head to head is 5-3 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 3-6 6-3 in the final in Madrid back in May 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek – Madrid 06-May-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30-9 | 14-4 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the semifinal after defeating Maria Sakkari 6-0 6-1 and Elena Rybakina 6-2 3-6 6-3.
In the previous match, Sabalenka defeated Rybakina (6-2 3-6 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 98 points vs Rybakina ‘s 93. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka managed to score 6 aces and she was not very solid on her 2nd serve to score 15 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 61% of her first serves in, winning 66% (44/67) of the points behind her 1st serve and 44% (19/43) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Rybakina 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has dropped 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 68% of her matches (318-153). 35-8 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed189-84 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Adelaide where she defeated Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she beat Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she defeated Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
Sabalenka has a compiled 55-13 win-loss record in 2023, 35-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cancun
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45-4 | 22-3 | 21-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Iga reached the semifinal after defeating Marketa Vondrousova 7-63 6-0, Cori Gauff 6-0 7-5 and Ons Jabeur 6-1 6-2.
In the previous match, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Jabeur (6-1 6-2). During the match Swiatek scored 60 points vs Jabeur’s 34. The Pole was quite aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Swiatek scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Iga Swiatek was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (20/26) of her 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Iga broke Jabeur 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Pole hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 61% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Doha where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Stuttgart where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 6-4 and at the French Open where she beat Karolina Muchova in the final 6-2 5-7 6-4 and in Warsaw where she defeated Laura Siegemund in the final 6-0 6-1 and in Beijing where she defeated Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-2 6-2.
Swiatek has a composed 66-11 win-loss record in 2023, 40-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 39 | 52 |
| Pts | 160-127 | 198-127 |
| Total Points | 287 | 325 |
| Winners | 65 | 70 |
| %Winners | 41% | 35% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Swiatek competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set while Iga Swiatek hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Swiatek (5 vs 6). Therefore, Sabalenka played 13 games less than Swiatek. The Belarussian scored 65 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Iga struck 70 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 1.7 |
| 1st in | 93/161 | 103/168 |
| %1st in | 58% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 65/93 | 70/103 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 33/68 | 36/65 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 55% |
Sabalenka fired 12 aces (6 per match). Swiatek scored 5 aces (1.7 per match). Sabalenka won 70% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Swiatek won 68% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 17 |
| Converted | 10/19 | 17/30 |
| % Converted | 53% | 57% |
| Conceded | 17 | 13 |
| Saved | 14 | 7 |
| % Saved | 82% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 6 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 10 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Belarussian lost her serve 3 times and she saved 82% of the break points that she conceded. Swiatek broke her opponents 17 times with a 57% conversion rate. The Pole conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| Round Robin Rybakina |
Round Robin Pegula |
Round Robin Sakkari |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 3-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | 6-0 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 19 | 13 | 58 | |
| pts | 98-93 | – | 62-34 | 160-127 | |
| Total points | 191 | 0 | 96 | 287 | |
| Winners | 44 | 21 | 65 | ||
| %Winners | 45% | 0% | 34% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 15 | 5 | 20 | ||
| 1st in | 67/110 | / | 26/51 | 93/161 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 0% | 51% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 44/67 | / | 21/26 | 65/93 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 0% | 81% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/43 | / | 14/25 | 33/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 0% | 56% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | ||
| Converted | 5/10 | / | 5/9 | 10/19 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 0% | 56% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 5 | 17 | ||
| Saved | 9/12 | 0/ | 5/5 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 75% | – | 100% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Swiatek | |||||
| Round Robin Jabeur |
Round Robin Gauff |
Round Robin Vondrousova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-0 7-5 | 7-63 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 19 | 52 | |
| pts | 60-34 | 69-47 | 69-46 | 198-127 | |
| Total points | 94 | 116 | 115 | 325 | |
| Winners | 20 | 28 | 22 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 41% | 32% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 26/48 | 41/56 | 36/64 | 103/168 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 73% | 56% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 20/26 | 28/41 | 22/36 | 70/103 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 68% | 61% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/22 | 7/15 | 16/28 | 36/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 47% | 57% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 6 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 6/10 | 6/10 | 17/30 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 60% | 60% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 1/3 | 2/5 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 33% | 40% | 51% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Cori GauffGauff (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (3-5) – H2H and prediction
