Cori Gauff and Jessica Pegula will clash against each other in the semifinal of the WTA Finals for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:30 am on Estadio Paradisus. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Cori Gauff who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Cori Gauff is the pick to win this match.
Cori Gauff -> 1.74
Jessica Pegula -> 2.1
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Prediction and head to head Cori Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula
This will be the 4th time that Cori Gauff and Jessica Pegula clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Pegula won 6-2 5-7 7-5 in the quarter in Montreal back in August 2023.
Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Cori Gauff – Montreal 11-August-2023
Cori Gauff
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52-16 | 31-9 | 14-5 | 2-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-16 | 40-9 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-23 | 23-16 | 10-4 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-16 | 16-10 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-8 | 7-5 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3 (career-high), Cori got to the semifinal after defeating Ons Jabeur 6-0 6-1 and Marketa Vondrousova 5-7 7-64 6-3.
In the previous match against Vondrousova, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 7-64 6-3). During the match, Gauff scored 104 points vs Vondrousova’s 101. Gauff was quite aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Regarding the service games, Gauff made 3 aces and she was not very steady on her 2nd serve to score 17 double faults. Cori Gauff lost the serve 7 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Gauff put 62% of her first serves in, winning 66% (43/65) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (13/40) on the 2nd serve. Gauff broke Vondrousova 8 times after converting 73% of her break points (8/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Cori has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Gauff has a solid win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 68% of her matches (175-81). 40-8 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Gauff has a composed99-47 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Auckland where she overcame Rebeka Masarova in the final 6-1 6-1 and in Washington where she beat Maria Sakkari in the final 6-2 6-3 and in Cincinnati where she defeated Karolina Muchova in the final 6-3 6-4 and at the U.S. Open where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 2-6 6-3 6-2.
The American has an overall 51-15 win-loss record in 2023, 40-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cancun
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Pegula got to the semifinal after defeating Elena Rybakina 7-5 6-2, Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 6-3 and Maria Sakkari 6-3 6-2.
In the previous match, Jessica had a good straight sets win against Sakkari (6-3 6-2). During the match Pegula scored 62 points vs Sakkari’s 49. Pegula was pretty aggressive to blast 13 winners.
About the serving games, Pegula couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was quite steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 60% of her first serves in, winning 46% (13/28) of the points behind her 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Sakkari 7 times after converting 64% of her break points (7/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pegula hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where she beat Martina Trevisan in the final 6-4 6-2 and in Montreal where she beat Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-0 and in Seoul where she overcame Yue Yuan in the final 6-2 6-3.
Jessica has an aggregate 58-17 win-loss record in 2023, 44-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Gauff | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 47 | 56 |
| Pts | 162-129 | 200-154 |
| Total Points | 291 | 354 |
| Winners | 60 | 63 |
| %Winners | 37% | 32% |
Gauff played 2 matches while Pegula competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Cori Gauff surrendered 1 set while Jessica Pegula hasn’t dropped a set so far. Gauff has played 1 set(s) less than Pegula (5 vs 6). Therefore, Gauff played 9 games less than Pegula. Gauff scored 60 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Pegula managed to score 63 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Gauff | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 2.3 |
| 1st in | 86/151 | 97/167 |
| %1st in | 57% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 60/86 | 63/97 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 29/65 | 38/70 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 54% |
Gauff managed to score 4 aces (2 per match). Pegula scored 7 aces (2.3 per match). Gauff won 70% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 65% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Gauff | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 17 |
| Converted | 13/19 | 17/32 |
| % Converted | 68% | 53% |
| Conceded | 16 | 16 |
| Saved | 9 | 9 |
| % Saved | 56% | 56% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 7 |
The American broke her opponents 13 times with a 68% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded. Pegula broke her opponents 17 times with a 53% conversion rate. Pegula conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded.
| Gauff | |||||
| Round Robin Vondrousova |
Round Robin Swiatek |
Round Robin Jabeur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 7-64 6-3 | 6-0 7-5 | 6-0 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 18 | 13 | 65 | |
| pts | 104-101 | – | 58-28 | 162-129 | |
| Total points | 205 | 0 | 86 | 291 | |
| Winners | 43 | 17 | 60 | ||
| %Winners | 41% | 0% | 29% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 17 | 3 | 20 | ||
| 1st in | 65/105 | / | 21/46 | 86/151 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 0% | 46% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 43/65 | / | 17/21 | 60/86 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 0% | 81% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/40 | / | 16/25 | 29/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 33% | 0% | 64% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 5 | 13 | ||
| Converted | 8/11 | / | 5/8 | 13/19 | |
| Converted % | 73% | 0% | 63% | 68% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 3 | 16 | ||
| Saved | 6/13 | 0/ | 3/3 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 46% | – | 100% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 7 | 0 | 7 | ||
| Pegula | |||||
| Round Robin Sakkari |
Round Robin Sabalenka |
Round Robin Rybakina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 19 | 20 | 56 | |
| pts | 62-49 | 68-52 | 70-53 | 200-154 | |
| Total points | 111 | 120 | 123 | 354 | |
| Winners | 13 | 26 | 24 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 21% | 38% | 34% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 28/47 | 39/59 | 30/61 | 97/167 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 66% | 49% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 13/28 | 26/39 | 24/30 | 63/97 | |
| % 1st pts | 46% | 67% | 80% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/19 | 12/20 | 15/31 | 38/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 60% | 48% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 5 | 5 | 17 | |
| Converted | 7/11 | 5/14 | 5/7 | 17/32 | |
| Converted % | 64% | 36% | 71% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 3/5 | 5/7 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 60% | 71% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWWWWWW
LLLWLWWLWW 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Cori GauffGauff (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (3-5) – H2H and prediction
