Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur will play each other in the 3rd round of the Rolex Paris Masters for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 5:00 pm on COURT CENTRAL. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.33
Alex De Minaur -> 3.32

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Alex De Minaur

This will be the 6th time that Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur face off. The head to head is 5-0 for Sinner (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they locked horns, Sinner won 6-4 6-1 in the final in Toronto back in August 2023.

Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur – Toronto 13-August-2023

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
2
High
1
WWWWWWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 58-6 24-3 11-2 15-0 8-1 0-0
2024 73-8 40-5 11-2 13-0 9-1 0-0
2023 64-15 28-7 8-3 20-2 8-3 0-0
2022 47-16 21-6 15-4 7-4 4-2 0-0
2021 49-22 22-8 10-6 17-6 0-2 0-0

Ranked no. 4 (career-high), the Italian reached the 3rd round after defeating Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-76 7-5 6-1.

In the 2nd round against Mcdonald, The Italian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-76 7-5 6-1). During the match, Sinner scored 98 points vs Mcdonald’s 75. Sinner was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sinner struck 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Jannik Sinner was very effective on serve to win 85% (41/48) of his 1st serve and 66% (23/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Sinner broke Mcdonald 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Sinner has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 70% of his matches (266-112). 13-1 on indoor hard courts in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Sinner has an aggregate80-24 record in the last 6 years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Montpellier where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3 and in Toronto where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-1 and in Beijing where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(2) 7-6(2) and in Vienna where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3.

Jannik has an aggregate 57-14 win-loss record in 2023, 13-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Paris

Paris
Sinner's Record

Alex De Minaur

Alex De Minaur

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
7
High
6
LWLLLWWLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 56-24 30-11 10-5 13-6 3-2 0-0
2024 47-21 19-6 10-5 11-9 7-1 0-0
2023 46-26 26-12 4-5 10-6 6-3 0-0
2022 47-25 19-10 9-6 12-5 7-4 0-0
2021 25-25 10-10 4-5 3-7 8-3 0-0

Ranked no. 13, De Minaur reached the 3rd round after defeating Andy Murray 7-65 4-6 7-5 and Dusan Lajovic 4-6 6-4 6-4

.

In the 2nd round against Lajovic, The Australian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 6-4). During the match De Minaur scored 99 points vs Lajovic’s 84. Alex was very aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Talking about serving, De Minaur fired 10 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Alex De Minaur was quite efficient on serve to win 81% (42/52) of his 1st serve and 54% (22/41) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Alex broke Lajovic 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alex has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Acapulco where he defeated Tommy Paul in the final 3-6 6-4 6-1.

De Minaur has an overall 44-24 win-loss record in 2023, 8-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Paris

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2019, 2020 and 2022. See his history

.
Paris
De Minaur's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Sinner
A.De Minaur
2h:16
2h:16
Time on court​
!
5h:10
5h:10
!
2h:16
2h:16
Last match​
!
2h:10
2h:10
1
1
Match played
!
2
2
32
32
Games Played​
65
65
3
3
Set played​​
6
6
98
98
Total points​
206
206
98
98
Avg point​
103
103
41
41
Winners
86
86
41
41
Avg Winners​
43
43
42%
42%
Ratio winners
42%
42%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
17
17
4
4
Avg Aces
8.5
8.5
2
2
Double Faults
4
4
2
2
Avg Double Faults
2
2
41/48
41/48
1st won total​
86/116
86/116
!
85%
85%
1st won %
!
74%
74%
23/35
23/35
2nd won total​
43/89
43/89
!
66%
66%
2nd won %
48%
48%
-- Break Points --
4/8
4/8
BP won
8/12
8/12
4/8
4/8
Avg BP won
4/6
4/6
50%
50%
Won
!
67%
67%
1
1
Conceded
18
18
1
1
Avg Conceded
9
9
1
1
Broken
7
7
1
1
Avg Broken
3.5
3.5
0
0
Saved
11
11

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sinner De Minaur
Match played 1 2
Tot Set 3 6
Tot Games 32 65
Pts 98-75 206-196
Total Points 173 402
Winners 41 86
%Winners 42% 42%

Sinner played 1 match while De Minaur competed in 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jannik Sinner conceded 1 set, while Alex De Minaur surrendered 2 sets. Sinner has played 3 set(s) less than De Minaur (3 vs 6). Therefore, Sinner played 33 games less than De Minaur. Jannik scored 41 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Australian managed to score 86 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sinner De Minaur
Aces 4 17
Avg per match 4 8.5
1st in 48/83 116/205
%1st in 58% 57%
1st pts 41/48 86/116
%1st pts 85% 74%
2nd pts 23/35 43/89
%2nd pts 66% 48%

Sinner bagged 4 aces . De Minaur scored 17 aces (8.5 per match). Sinner won 85% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, De Minaur won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sinner De Minaur
Won 4 8
Converted 4/8 8/12
% Converted 50% 67%
Conceded 1 18
Saved 0 11
% Saved 0% 61%
Times Broken 1 7

The Italian broke his opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Sinner surrendered his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. The Australian broke his opponents 8 times with a 67% conversion rate. De Minaur conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.

Sinner
R2
Mcdonald
Total
Score 6-76 7-5 6-1
Tot Set 3 3
Tot Games 32 32
pts 98-75 98-75
Total points 173 173
Winners 41 41
%Winners 42% 42%
SERVE
Aces 4 4
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 48/83 48/83
% 1st in 58% 58%
1st pts 41/48 41/48
% 1st pts 85% 85%
2nd pts 23/35 23/35
% 2nd pts 66% 66%
Breaks
Won 4 4
Converted 4/8 4/8
Converted % 50% 50%
Conceded 1 1
Saved 0/1 0
Saved % 0% 0%
Times Broken 1 1
De Minaur
R1
Murray
R2
Lajovic
Total
Score 7-65 4-6 7-5 4-6 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 3 3 6
Tot Games 35 30 65
pts 107-112 99-84 206-196
Total points 219 183 402
Winners 44 42 86
%Winners 41% 42% 42%
SERVE
Aces 7 10 17
Double Faults 3 1 4
1st in 64/112 52/93 116/205
% 1st in 57% 56% 57%
1st pts 44/64 42/52 86/116
% 1st pts 69% 81% 74%
2nd pts 21/48 22/41 43/89
% 2nd pts 44% 54% 48%
Breaks
Won 5 3 8
Converted 5/6 3/6 8/12
Converted % 83% 50% 67%
Conceded 11 7 18
Saved 6/11 5/7 11
Saved % 55% 71% 126%
Times Broken 5 2 7

Tennis Scores in Paris

Upcoming matches in the draw