Jasmine Paolini and Elise Mertens will face off in the final of the Jasmin Open Tunisia for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on Center Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elise Mertens who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elise Mertens is the pick to win this match.
Elise Mertens -> 1.86
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.95
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 5th time that Jasmine Paolini and Elise Mertens clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Mertens (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Mertens won 6-3 2-6 7-5 in the 1st round in Doha back in 2022.
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37-16 | 17-8 | 12-5 | 0-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-15 | 1-8 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 30 (career-high), Paolini reached the final after beating Alize Cornet 6-4 6-2, Petra Marcinko 6-4 3-6 6-2, Lucia Bronzetti 7-5 7-63 and Lesya Tsurenko 6-2 4-6 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Italian defeated Tsurenko (6-2 4-6 6-2). During the match, Paolini scored 109 points vs Tsurenko’s 90. Paolini was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Regarding the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace and she committed only 4 double faults. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve 5 times and she saved 19 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 63% of her first serves in, winning 61% (40/66) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (18/39) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Tsurenko 8 times after converting 47% of her break points (8/17).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has surrendered 2 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Paolini has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 57% of her matches (320-238). 20-15 on hard in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Paolini has an overall 108-86 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title the Florence where she defeated Taylor Townsend in the final 6-3 7-5.
The Italian has an aggregate 40-28 win-loss record in 2023, 20-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monastir
Paolini has never competed in this tournament before.
Elise Mertens
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-22 | 16-12 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 34-13 | 17-7 | 9-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 36, Mertens got to the final after defeating Alexandra Eala 7-5 6-0, Iryna Shymanovich 6-3 6-2, Mai Hontama 6-3 6-2 and Clara Burel 6-2 6-1.
In the semifinal, Mertens had a good straight sets win against Burel (6-2 6-1). During the match Mertens scored 66 points vs Burel’s 44. Elise was very aggressive to blast 19 winners.
About the serving games, Mertens managed to score 2 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 55% of her first serves in, winning 63% (19/30) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (12/25) on the 2nd serve. Elise broke Burel 7 times after converting 54% of her break points (7/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belgian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.
The Belgian’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Monterrey and Monastir.
The Belgian has an aggregate 29-22 win-loss record in 2023, 23-16 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monastir
Previously, she won this tournament once in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 96 | 67 |
| Pts | 351-294 | 270-189 |
| Total Points | 645 | 459 |
| Winners | 140 | 84 |
| %Winners | 40% | 31% |
Both Paolini and Mertens played 4 matches. At the moment, Jasmine Paolini conceded 2 sets while Elise Mertens hasn’t conceded a set so far. Paolini has played 2 sets more than Mertens (10 vs 8). Therefore, Paolini played 29 games more than Mertens. Jasmine scored 140 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Belgian struck 84 winners (31%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 20 |
| Avg per match | 0.5 | 5 |
| 1st in | 229/334 | 107/201 |
| %1st in | 69% | 53% |
| 1st pts | 140/229 | 84/107 |
| %1st pts | 61% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 50/105 | 43/94 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 46% |
Paolini struck 2 aces (0.5 per match). Mertens struck 20 aces (5 per match). Paolini won 61% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 79% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 26 | 24 |
| Converted | 26/51 | 24/48 |
| % Converted | 51% | 50% |
| Conceded | 51 | 15 |
| Saved | 33 | 7 |
| % Saved | 65% | 47% |
| Times Broken | 18 | 8 |
Paolini broke her opponents 26 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Italian conceded her serve 18 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded. The Belgian broke her opponents 24 times with a 50% conversion rate. Mertens conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 47% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | ||||||
| R1 Cornet |
R2 Marcinko |
1/4 Bronzetti |
1/2 Tsurenko |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 3-6 6-2 | 7-5 7-63 | 6-2 4-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 96 | |
| pts | 63-46 | 92-84 | 87-74 | 109-90 | 351-294 | |
| Total points | 109 | 176 | 161 | 199 | 645 | |
| Winners | 26 | 37 | 37 | 40 | 140 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 40% | 43% | 37% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 42/60 | 65/91 | 56/78 | 66/105 | 229/334 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 71% | 72% | 63% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 26/42 | 37/65 | 37/56 | 40/66 | 140/229 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 57% | 66% | 61% | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/18 | 10/26 | 10/22 | 18/39 | 50/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 38% | 45% | 46% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 8/17 | 5/10 | 8/17 | 26/51 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 47% | 50% | 47% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 11 | 9 | 24 | 51 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 4/11 | 5/9 | 19/24 | 33 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 36% | 56% | 79% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 18 | |
| Mertens | ||||||
| R1 Eala |
R2 Shymanovich |
1/4 Hontama |
1/2 Burel |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-0 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 67 | |
| pts | 84-61 | 58-43 | 62-41 | 66-44 | 270-189 | |
| Total points | 145 | 101 | 103 | 110 | 459 | |
| Winners | 31 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 29% | 27% | 29% | 31% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 23 | |
| 1st in | 36/65 | 20/40 | 21/41 | 30/55 | 107/201 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 50% | 51% | 55% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 31/36 | 17/20 | 17/21 | 19/30 | 84/107 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 85% | 81% | 63% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/29 | 11/20 | 13/20 | 12/25 | 43/94 | |
| % 2nd pts | 24% | 55% | 65% | 48% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | |
| Converted | 7/15 | 5/9 | 5/11 | 7/13 | 24/48 | |
| Converted % | 47% | 56% | 45% | 54% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 15 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 3/6 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 27% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Elise MertensMertens (1-3) – H2H and prediction
