Ben Shelton and Aslan Karatsev will face off in the final of the Rakuten Japan Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ben Shelton who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Ben Shelton is the pick to win this match.
Ben Shelton -> 1.7
Aslan Karatsev -> 2.16
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Prediction and head to head Ben Shelton vs. Aslan Karatsev
This will be the 2nd time that Ben Shelton and Aslan Karatsev play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Shelton (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Shelton won 6-4 3-6 6-2 6-0 in the 3rd round in at the U.S. Open back in September 2023.
Highlights Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev – U.S. Open 01-September-2023
Ben Shelton
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-8 | 9-6 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-26 | 21-13 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-11 | 16-9 | 0-0 | 24-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-7 | 7-3 | 5-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19 (career-high), Ben reached the final after beating Taro Daniel 3-6 6-4 7-62, Jordan Thompson 6-75 6-4 6-3, Tommy Paul 7-64 6-3 and Marcos Giron 6-72 7-65 6-4.
In the semifinal against Giron, Shelton recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-72 7-65 6-4).During the match, Shelton scored less points (7) than Giron. In fact, the world no. 19 won 109 points vs Giron’s. That means that Shelton was more focused during the important points. Shelton was pretty aggressive to blast 59 winners.
Talking about the service games, Shelton blasted 13 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Ben Shelton lost the serve 3 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Shelton put 74% of his first serves in, winning 67% (59/88) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (16/31) on the 2nd serve. Shelton broke Giron 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ben has lost 3 set in this event to win 52% of the points he played.
Shelton has a solid record in the last 3 years having won 67% of his matches (85-42). 20-13 on hard in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Shelton has an aggregate43-25 record in the last 3 years on hard.
The American’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in the Cagliari Challenger,at the U.S. Open and Tokyo.
Shelton has an aggregate 27-24 win-loss record in 2023, 20-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
Ben has never competed in this tournament before.
Aslan Karatsev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 36-11 | 7-4 | 17-2 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 50, the Russian reached the final after defeating Frances Tiafoe 6-3 7-64, Zhizhen Zhang 6-3 6-4, Alex De Minaur 6-3 6-2 and Shintaro Mochizuki 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal, Aslan had a good straight sets win against Mochizuki (6-3 6-4). During the match Karatsev scored 64 points vs Mochizuki’s 49. Aslan was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Karatsev fired 6 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Aslan Karatsev was very efficient on serve to win 85% (29/34) of his 1st serve and 60% (15/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Mochizuki twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aslan hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Karatsev’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Pune, Madrid, Zhuhai and Tokyo.
Aslan has a composed 32-20 win-loss record in 2023, 13-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shelton | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 122 | 77 |
| Pts | 389-366 | 267-215 |
| Total Points | 755 | 482 |
| Winners | 187 | 120 |
| %Winners | 48% | 45% |
Both Shelton and Karatsev played 4 matches. At the moment, Ben Shelton conceded 3 sets while Aslan Karatsev hasn’t conceded a set so far. Shelton has played 3 sets more than Karatsev (11 vs 8). Therefore, Shelton played 45 games more than Karatsev. Shelton scored 187 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Karatsev struck 120 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shelton | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 45 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 11.3 | 5.8 |
| 1st in | 252/378 | 153/259 |
| %1st in | 67% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 187/252 | 120/153 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 69/126 | 62/106 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 58% |
Shelton scored 45 aces (11.3 per match). Karatsev fired 23 aces (5.8 per match). Shelton won 74% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Karatsev won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shelton | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 9 |
| Converted | 11/26 | 9/18 |
| % Converted | 42% | 50% |
| Conceded | 23 | 12 |
| Saved | 16 | 11 |
| % Saved | 70% | 92% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 1 |
Shelton broke his opponents 11 times with a 42% conversion rate. The American lost his serve 7 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. The Russian broke his opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. Aslan conceded his serve once and he saved 92% of the break points that he conceded.
| Shelton | ||||||
| R1 Daniel |
R2 Thompson |
1/4 Paul |
1/2 Giron |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-4 7-62 | 6-75 6-4 6-3 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-72 7-65 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 32 | 22 | 36 | 122 | |
| pts | 93-92 | 117-99 | 70-59 | 109-116 | 389-366 | |
| Total points | 185 | 216 | 129 | 225 | 755 | |
| Winners | 44 | 50 | 34 | 59 | 187 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 43% | 49% | 54% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 45 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 60/90 | 62/96 | 42/73 | 88/119 | 252/378 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 65% | 58% | 74% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 44/60 | 50/62 | 34/42 | 59/88 | 187/252 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 81% | 81% | 67% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 19/34 | 18/31 | 16/31 | 69/126 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 56% | 58% | 52% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 3/11 | 2/2 | 4/8 | 11/26 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 27% | 100% | 50% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 23 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 1/2 | 6/7 | 7/10 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | 86% | 70% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Karatsev | ||||||
| R1 Tiafoe |
R2 Zhang |
1/4 De Minaur |
1/2 Mochizuki |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-64 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 77 | |
| pts | 74-68 | 65-45 | 64-53 | 64-49 | 267-215 | |
| Total points | 142 | 110 | 117 | 113 | 482 | |
| Winners | 37 | 23 | 31 | 29 | 120 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 35% | 48% | 45% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 52/82 | 24/49 | 43/69 | 34/59 | 153/259 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 49% | 62% | 58% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 37/52 | 23/24 | 31/43 | 29/34 | 120/153 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 96% | 72% | 85% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 17/25 | 14/26 | 15/25 | 62/106 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 68% | 54% | 60% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 2/6 | 9/18 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 50% | 60% | 33% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/0 | 5/5 | 1/1 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 100% | 100% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLWLW
LL 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
