Dennis Novak and Illya Marchenko will square off in the final of the Hamburg Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:30 am on COURT 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Dennis Novak who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Dennis Novak is the pick to win this match.
Dennis Novak -> 1.533
Illya Marchenko -> 2.42
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Prediction and head to head Dennis Novak vs. Illya Marchenko
This will be the 3rd time that Dennis Novak and Illya Marchenko face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Marchenko (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they squared off, Marchenko won 7-6(6) 6-0 in the 1st round in the Bratislava 2 Challenger back in October 2023.
Dennis Novak
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28-26 | 5-6 | 18-15 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-23 | 12-3 | 12-10 | 10-8 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 2-2 | 21-14 | 6-9 | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 26-29 | 1-3 | 9-12 | 14-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-14 | 8-6 | 0-2 | 8-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 176, Dennis reached the final after beating Marko Topo 7-62 6-1, Antoine Bellier 6-3 7-5, Javier Barranco Cosano 6-2 6-2 and Tristan Lamasine 4-6 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal against Lamasine, The Austrian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-4). During the match, Novak scored 91 points vs Lamasine’s 79. Dennis was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Regarding the service games, Novak fired 7 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Dennis Novak lost the serve 5 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Novak put 61% of his first serves in, winning 63% (35/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (17/36) on the 2nd serve. The Austrian broke Lamasine 6 times after converting 86% of his break points (6/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Novak has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
Novak has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (411-237). 9-5 on indoor hard courts in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Novak has a composed 74-57 match record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger where he overcame Tung-Lin Wu in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Austrian has a composed 37-20 win-loss record in 2023, 9-5 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Hamburg Challenger
Illya Marchenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8-22 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-22 | 17-5 | 6-6 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-25 | 9-10 | 3-4 | 8-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-28 | 5-7 | 2-5 | 26-12 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 15-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 248, the Ukrainian got to the final after beating Oleksii Krutykh 6-2 6-3, Altug Celikbilek 6-4 3-6 7-63, Adam Walton 6-4 6-1 and Billy Harris 7-5 3-6 7-5.
In the semifinal, Illya defeated Harris (7-5 3-6 7-5). During the match Marchenko scored 98 points vs Harris’s 95. The Ukrainian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 44 winners.
About the serving games, Marchenko fired 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Illya Marchenko lost the serve 4 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Marchenko put 61% of his first serves in, winning 71% (44/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (19/40) on the 2nd serve. Illya broke Harris 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Illya has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title the Salinas Challenger where he defeated Matija Pecotic in the final 6-4 6-4.
Marchenko has an overall 37-19 win-loss record in 2023, 13-7 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Hamburg Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Novak | Marchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 86 | 99 |
| Pts | 304-241 | 323-281 |
| Total Points | 545 | 604 |
| Winners | 130 | 143 |
| %Winners | 43% | 44% |
Both Novak and Marchenko played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Dennis Novak dropped 1 set, while Illya Marchenko dropped 2 sets. Novak has played 1 set(s) less than Marchenko (9 vs 10). Therefore, Novak played 13 games less than Marchenko. Dennis scored 130 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Illya recorded 143 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Novak | Marchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 34 |
| Avg per match | 5.3 | 8.5 |
| 1st in | 180/278 | 180/302 |
| %1st in | 65% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 130/180 | 143/180 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 52/98 | 60/122 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 49% |
Novak blasted 21 aces (5.3 per match). Marchenko made 34 aces (8.5 per match). Novak won 72% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Marchenko won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Novak | Marchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 13 |
| Converted | 15/34 | 13/25 |
| % Converted | 44% | 52% |
| Conceded | 27 | 28 |
| Saved | 21 | 21 |
| % Saved | 78% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 7 |
Novak broke his opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. Dennis dropped his serve 6 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. The Ukrainian broke his opponents 13 times with a 52% conversion rate. Marchenko conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Novak | ||||||
| R1 Topo |
R2 Bellier |
1/4 Barranco |
1/2 Lamasine |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-62 6-1 | 6-3 7-5 | 6-2 6-2 | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 21 | 16 | 29 | 86 | |
| pts | 78-57 | 71-62 | 64-43 | 91-79 | 304-241 | |
| Total points | 135 | 133 | 107 | 170 | 545 | |
| Winners | 33 | 36 | 26 | 35 | 130 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 51% | 41% | 38% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 42/63 | 45/68 | 37/55 | 56/92 | 180/278 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 66% | 67% | 61% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 33/42 | 36/45 | 26/37 | 35/56 | 130/180 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 80% | 70% | 63% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/21 | 13/23 | 9/18 | 17/36 | 52/98 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 57% | 50% | 47% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | |
| Converted | 2/9 | 2/8 | 5/10 | 6/7 | 15/34 | |
| Converted % | 22% | 25% | 50% | 86% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 27 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 3/3 | 7/8 | 9/14 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 88% | 64% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | |
| Marchenko | ||||||
| R1 Krutykh |
R2 Celikbilek |
1/4 Walton |
1/2 Harris |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 | 6-4 3-6 7-63 | 6-4 6-1 | 7-5 3-6 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 32 | 17 | 33 | 99 | |
| pts | 59-36 | 102-101 | 64-49 | 98-95 | 323-281 | |
| Total points | 95 | 203 | 113 | 193 | 604 | |
| Winners | 27 | 47 | 25 | 44 | 143 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | 39% | 45% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 11 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 34 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 30/46 | 56/94 | 32/60 | 62/102 | 180/302 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 60% | 53% | 61% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 27/30 | 47/56 | 25/32 | 44/62 | 143/180 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 84% | 78% | 71% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/16 | 17/38 | 14/28 | 19/40 | 60/122 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 45% | 50% | 48% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 2/4 | 4/7 | 4/8 | 13/25 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 57% | 50% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 28 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 6/8 | 4/5 | 9/13 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 80% | 69% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWLLWWWW
LLLLLLLLLL 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Dennis NovakNovak – Illya MarchenkoMarchenko (0-2) – H2H and prediction
