Aslan Karatsev and Shintaro Mochizuki will square off in the semifinal of the Rakuten Japan Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 2:00 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aslan Karatsev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aslan Karatsev is the pick to win this match.
Aslan Karatsev -> 1.3
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 3.54
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Prediction and head to head Aslan Karatsev vs. Shintaro Mochizuki
There is no head to head record between Aslan Karatsev and Shintaro Mochizuki since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Aslan Karatsev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 36-11 | 7-4 | 17-2 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 50, the Russian got to the semifinal after defeating Frances Tiafoe 6-3 7-64, Zhizhen Zhang 6-3 6-4 and Alex De Minaur 6-3 6-2.
In the quarter, Karatsev had a good straight sets win against De Minaur (6-3 6-2). During the match, Karatsev scored 64 points vs De Minaur’s 53. Karatsev was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Regarding the service games, Karatsev fired 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Aslan Karatsev was quite effective on serve to win 72% (31/43) of his 1st serve and 54% (14/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Karatsev broke De Minaur 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Karatsev has good record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (333-229). 12-9 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Karatsev has an overall 141-73 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Aslan’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Pune, Madrid and Zhuhai.
The Russian has a compiled 31-20 win-loss record in 2023, 12-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
Karatsev has never competed in this tournament before.
Shintaro Mochizuki
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14-17 | 5-8 | 7-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-33 | 22-16 | 13-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-34 | 18-17 | 13-12 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 11-10 | 18-11 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 14-12 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 215, Mochizuki got to the semifinal after defeating Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-4 7-65, Taylor Fritz 0-6 6-4 7-62 and Alexei Popyrin 7-5 2-6 7-5.
In the quarter, The Japanese defeated Popyrin (7-5 2-6 7-5).During the match Mochizuki scored less points (9) than Popyrin. In fact, the world no. 50 won 94 points vs Popyrin’s. That means that Mochizuki was more focused during the important points. Mochizuki was very aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Mochizuki fired 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki lost the serve 3 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Mochizuki put 60% of his first serves in, winning 69% (41/59) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (19/40) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Popyrin 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mochizuki has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 50% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Barletta Challenger where he beat Santiago Rodriguez Taverna in the final 6-1 6-4.
Shintaro has a composed 36-29 win-loss record in 2023, 19-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Karatsev | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 58 | 84 |
| Pts | 203-166 | 260-264 |
| Total Points | 369 | 524 |
| Winners | 91 | 113 |
| %Winners | 45% | 43% |
Both Karatsev and Mochizuki played 3 matches. At the moment, Shintaro Mochizuki dropped 2 sets while Aslan Karatsev hasn’t conceded a set so far. Karatsev has played 2 set(s) less than Mochizuki (6 vs 8). Therefore, Karatsev played 26 games less than Mochizuki. The Russian scored 91 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese made 113 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Karatsev | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 17 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 5.7 | 3.7 |
| 1st in | 119/200 | 166/273 |
| %1st in | 60% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 91/119 | 113/166 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 47/81 | 59/107 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 55% |
Karatsev blasted 17 aces (5.7 per match). Mochizuki bagged 11 aces (3.7 per match). Karatsev won 76% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Mochizuki won 68% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Karatsev | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 7 |
| Converted | 7/12 | 7/20 |
| % Converted | 58% | 35% |
| Conceded | 11 | 22 |
| Saved | 10 | 14 |
| % Saved | 91% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 8 |
Karatsev broke his opponents 7 times with a 58% conversion rate. The Russian dropped his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded. Mochizuki broke his opponents 7 times with a 35% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Karatsev | |||||
| R1 Tiafoe |
R2 Zhang |
1/4 De Minaur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-64 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 19 | 17 | 58 | |
| pts | 74-68 | 65-45 | 64-53 | 203-166 | |
| Total points | 142 | 110 | 117 | 369 | |
| Winners | 37 | 23 | 31 | 91 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 35% | 48% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 52/82 | 24/49 | 43/69 | 119/200 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 49% | 62% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 37/52 | 23/24 | 31/43 | 91/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 96% | 72% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 17/25 | 14/26 | 47/81 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 68% | 54% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 7/12 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 50% | 60% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 0 | 5 | 11 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/0 | 5/5 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 100% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mochizuki | |||||
| R1 Etcheverry |
R2 Fritz |
1/4 Popyrin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-65 | 0-6 6-4 7-62 | 7-5 2-6 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 29 | 32 | 84 | |
| pts | 78-74 | 88-87 | 94-103 | 260-264 | |
| Total points | 152 | 175 | 197 | 524 | |
| Winners | 32 | 40 | 41 | 113 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% | 44% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 49/79 | 58/95 | 59/99 | 166/273 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 61% | 60% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 32/49 | 40/58 | 41/59 | 113/166 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 69% | 69% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/30 | 20/37 | 19/40 | 59/107 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 54% | 48% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 2/8 | 2/5 | 3/7 | 7/20 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 40% | 43% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 9 | 9 | 22 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 5/9 | 6/9 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 56% | 67% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWLL
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