Alex De Minaur and Aslan Karatsev will square off in the quarter of the Rakuten Japan Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 6:00 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.45
Aslan Karatsev -> 2.76
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Aslan Karatsev
This will be the 3rd time that Alex De Minaur and Aslan Karatsev clash against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for De Minaur and Karatsev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Karatsev won 6-3 4-6 6-4 in the 3rd round in Madrid back in May 2023.
Highlights Aslan Karatsev vs Alex De Minaur – Madrid 01-May-2023
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33-11 | 15-5 | 10-5 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 13-10 | 6-5 | 0-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, De Minaur got to the quarter after defeating Jack Draper 4-6 7-64 7-61 and Diego Schwartzman 6-0 7-5.
In the 2nd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Schwartzman (6-0 7-5). During the match, De Minaur scored 69 points vs Schwartzman’s 47. The Australian was extremely aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Regarding the service games, De Minaur struck 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Alex De Minaur was very effective on serve to win 71% (22/31) of his 1st serve and 71% (12/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. De Minaur broke Schwartzman 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
De Minaur has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
De Minaur has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 63% of his matches (313-183). 26-11 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, De Minaur has an overall152-79 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in Acapulco where he overcame Tommy Paul in the final 3-6 6-4 6-1.
Alex has a composed 41-22 win-loss record in 2023, 26-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
Aslan Karatsev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 36-11 | 7-4 | 17-2 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 50, Aslan got to the quarter after defeating Frances Tiafoe 6-3 7-64 and Zhizhen Zhang 6-3 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Zhang (6-3 6-4). During the match Karatsev scored 65 points vs Zhang’s 45. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Karatsev struck 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Aslan Karatsev was very effective on serve to win 96% (23/24) of his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Zhang twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Russian’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Pune, Madrid and Zhuhai.
The Russian has an aggregate 30-20 win-loss record in 2023, 11-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Tokyo
Aslan has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 41 |
| Pts | 189-154 | 139-113 |
| Total Points | 343 | 252 |
| Winners | 70 | 60 |
| %Winners | 37% | 43% |
Both De Minaur and Karatsev played 2 matches. At the moment, Alex De Minaur lost 1 set while Aslan Karatsev hasn’t surrendered a set so far. De Minaur has played 1 set more than Karatsev (5 vs 4). Therefore, De Minaur played 13 games more than Karatsev. De Minaur scored 70 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian struck 60 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 7 |
| 1st in | 95/159 | 76/131 |
| %1st in | 60% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 70/95 | 60/76 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 37/64 | 33/55 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 60% |
De Minaur blasted 12 aces (6 per match). Karatsev fired 14 aces (7 per match). De Minaur won 74% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Karatsev won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 4 |
| Converted | 8/17 | 4/7 |
| % Converted | 47% | 57% |
| Conceded | 8 | 6 |
| Saved | 3 | 5 |
| % Saved | 38% | 83% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 1 |
The Australian broke his opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Australian lost his serve 5 times and he saved 38% of the break points that he conceded. Karatsev broke his opponents 4 times with a 57% conversion rate. Karatsev conceded his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||
| R1 Draper |
R2 Schwartzman |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 7-64 7-61 | 6-0 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 36 | 18 | 54 | |
| pts | 120-107 | 69-47 | 189-154 | |
| Total points | 227 | 116 | 343 | |
| Winners | 48 | 22 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 32% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 9 | 3 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 64/111 | 31/48 | 95/159 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 65% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 48/64 | 22/31 | 70/95 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 71% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/47 | 12/17 | 37/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 71% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 5/11 | 8/17 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 45% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 | 8 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 0/1 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 43% | 0% | 22% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Karatsev | ||||
| R1 Tiafoe |
R2 Zhang |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-64 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 19 | 41 | |
| pts | 74-68 | 65-45 | 139-113 | |
| Total points | 142 | 110 | 252 | |
| Winners | 37 | 23 | 60 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 35% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 10 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 52/82 | 24/49 | 76/131 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 49% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 37/52 | 23/24 | 60/76 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 96% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 17/25 | 33/55 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 68% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 2/4 | 4/7 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 50% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/0 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWLWWWWL
LLLLWLL Tennis Scores in Tokyo
- Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien RojerArevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer – Ben Mclachlan/Yoshihito NishiokaMclachlan/Yoshihito Nishioka (6-3 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jamie Murray/Michael VenusMurray/Michael Venus – Sander Gille/Joran VliegenGille/Joran Vliegen (4-6 7-5 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Tommy PaulPaul – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Marcos GironGiron (3-0) – H2H and prediction
