Mattia Bellucci and Pablo Carreno-Busta will face off in the 2nd round of the Malaga Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 12:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.57
Mattia Bellucci -> 2.29
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Prediction and head to head Mattia Bellucci vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
There is no head to head record between Mattia Bellucci and Pablo Carreno-Busta since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Mattia Bellucci
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24-31 | 10-13 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 51-33 | 31-18 | 5-2 | 9-9 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-34 | 22-19 | 2-9 | 4-3 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 66-23 | 30-4 | 25-12 | 11-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-18 | 29-10 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 144, Mattia got to the 2nd round after beating Roberto Carballes Baena 4-6 6-3 6-2.
In the 1st round against Carballes Baena, The Italian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Bellucci scored 100 points vs Carballes Baena’s 85. Bellucci was extremely aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about the service games, Bellucci scored 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Mattia Bellucci lost the serve twice and he saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Bellucci put 56% of his first serves in, winning 86% (44/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (16/40) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Carballes Baena 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).
Bellucci has a solid win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 65% of his matches (179-98). 17-17 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Bellucci has a compiled97-42 win-loss record in the last 6 years on hard.
His best result of the year was conquering the title the Cassis Challenger where he defeated Tomas Machac in the final 6-3 6-4.
Mattia has an overall 28-31 win-loss record in 2023, 17-17 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Malaga Challenger
The Italian has never competed in this tournament before.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 195, Pablo got to the 2nd round after beating Arthur Cazaux 2-6 6-4 6-3.
In the 1st round against Cazaux, Carreno-Busta recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 6-3).During the match Carreno-Busta scored less points (4) than Cazaux. In fact, the world no. 144 won 87 points vs Cazaux’s. That means that Carreno-Busta was more focused during the important points. Pablo was extremely aggressive to blast 50 winners.
About the serving games, Carreno-Busta struck 2 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve 3 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 70% of his first serves in, winning 68% (50/74) of the points behind his 1st serve and 32% (10/31) on the 2nd serve. Pablo broke Cazaux 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
The Spaniard has an aggregate 2-4 win-loss record in 2023, 2-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Bellucci | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 27 | 27 |
| Pts | 100-85 | 87-91 |
| Total Points | 185 | 178 |
| Winners | 44 | 50 |
| %Winners | 44% | 57% |
Both Bellucci and Carreno-Busta played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Mattia Bellucci dropped 1 set, while Pablo Carreno-Busta conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Bellucci and Carreno-Busta have played the same amount of sets 3. They also played the same amount of games (27). The Italian scored 44 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard made 50 winners (57%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Bellucci | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 2 |
| 1st in | 51/91 | 74/105 |
| %1st in | 56% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 44/51 | 50/74 |
| %1st pts | 86% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 16/40 | 10/31 |
| %2nd pts | 40% | 32% |
Bellucci made 5 aces . Carreno-Busta scored 2 aces . Bellucci won 86% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 40% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 32% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Bellucci | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 4 |
| Converted | 4/12 | 4/6 |
| % Converted | 33% | 67% |
| Conceded | 14 | 10 |
| Saved | 12 | 7 |
| % Saved | 86% | 70% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
The Italian broke his opponent 4 times with a 33% conversion rate. Bellucci conceded his serve twice and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Pablo broke his opponent 4 times with a 67% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.
| Bellucci | |||
| R1 Carballes Baena |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 27 | |
| pts | 100-85 | 100-85 | |
| Total points | 185 | 185 | |
| Winners | 44 | 44 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 51/91 | 51/91 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 44/51 | 44/51 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/40 | 16/40 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 40% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 4/12 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 14 | 14 | |
| Saved | 12/14 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Carreno-Busta | |||
| R1 Cazaux |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 27 | |
| pts | 87-91 | 87-91 | |
| Total points | 178 | 178 | |
| Winners | 50 | 50 | |
| %Winners | 57% | 57% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 74/105 | 74/105 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 50/74 | 50/74 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/31 | 10/31 | |
| % 2nd pts | 32% | 32% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 4/6 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | |
| Saved | 7/10 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 70% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
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LWLLWWWWLW Tennis Scores in Malaga Challenger
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