Iga Swiatek and Liudmila Samsonova will fight against each other in the final of the China Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 7:30 pm on Diamond. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.26
Liudmila Samsonova -> 3.86
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Liudmila Samsonova
This will be the 3rd time that Iga Swiatek and Liudmila Samsonova clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Swiatek won 6-1 6-0 in the 3rd round in Dubai back in February 2023.
Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Liudmila Samsonova – Dubai 22-February-2023
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32-4 | 22-3 | 8-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Pole got to the final after defeating Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-4 6-3, Varvara Gracheva 6-4 6-1, Magda Linette 6-1 6-1, Caroline Garcia 6-78 7-65 6-1 and Cori Gauff 6-2 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Pole had a good straight sets win against Gauff (6-2 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 61 points vs Gauff’s 39. Swiatek was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Iga Swiatek was quite effective on serve to win 87% (26/30) of her 1st serve and 60% (6/10) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Iga broke Gauff 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Swiatek has dropped 1 set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 81% of her matches (279-67). 36-8 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Swiatek has a composed127-37 match record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Doha where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Stuttgart where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 6-4 and at the French Open where she overcame Karolina Muchova in the final 6-2 5-7 6-4 and in Warsaw where she beat Laura Siegemund in the final 6-0 6-1.
Swiatek has an overall 62-11 win-loss record in 2023, 36-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
The Pole has never competed in this tournament before.
Liudmila Samsonova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-24 | 25-15 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-17 | 26-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-22 | 15-9 | 6-9 | 8-3 | 10-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-12 | 10-6 | 4-4 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, Ludmilla got to the final after beating Alycia Parks 6-4 7-64, Petra Kvitova 6-4 7-5, Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-74 7-5, Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 6-2 and Elena Rybakina 7-67 6-3.
In the semifinal, Ludmilla had a good straight sets win against Rybakina (7-67 6-3). During the match Samsonova scored 78 points vs Rybakina ‘s 70. Samsonova was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about serving, Samsonova fired 7 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Liudmila Samsonova was very efficient on serve to win 76% (34/45) of her 1st serve and 52% (16/31) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Ludmilla broke Rybakina twice after converting 40% of her break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Samsonova has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
The Russian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Abu Dhabi and Montreal.
Samsonova has an overall 32-21 win-loss record in 2023, 24-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 100 | 119 |
| Pts | 349-251 | 421-361 |
| Total Points | 600 | 782 |
| Winners | 141 | 160 |
| %Winners | 40% | 38% |
Both Swiatek and Samsonova played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek lost 1 set, while Liudmila Samsonova lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Swiatek and Samsonova have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Swiatek played 19 games less than Samsonova. Iga scored 141 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian recorded 160 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 29 |
| Avg per match | 1.4 | 5.8 |
| 1st in | 185/262 | 219/380 |
| %1st in | 71% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 141/185 | 160/219 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 45/77 | 79/161 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 49% |
Swiatek made 7 aces (1.4 per match). Samsonova struck 29 aces (5.8 per match). Swiatek won 76% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Samsonova won 73% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 25 | 23 |
| Converted | 25/44 | 23/51 |
| % Converted | 57% | 45% |
| Conceded | 8 | 33 |
| Saved | 1 | 20 |
| % Saved | 13% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 13 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 25 times with a 57% conversion rate. Iga dropped her serve 7 times and she saved 13% of the break points that she conceded. Samsonova broke her opponents 23 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Russian conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 61% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||||
| R1 Sorribes Tormo |
R2 Gracheva |
R3 Linette |
1/4 Garcia |
1/2 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 6-1 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-78 7-65 6-1 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 17 | 14 | 33 | 17 | 100 | |
| pts | 64-48 | 60-42 | 51-26 | 113-96 | 61-39 | 349-251 | |
| Total points | 112 | 102 | 77 | 209 | 100 | 600 | |
| Winners | 17 | 22 | 16 | 60 | 26 | 141 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 37% | 31% | 53% | 43% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 32/45 | 30/44 | 19/36 | 74/97 | 30/40 | 185/262 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 68% | 53% | 76% | 75% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 17/32 | 22/30 | 16/19 | 60/74 | 26/30 | 141/185 | |
| % 1st pts | 53% | 73% | 84% | 81% | 87% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/13 | 9/14 | 12/17 | 11/23 | 6/10 | 45/77 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 64% | 71% | 48% | 60% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | |
| Converted | 7/14 | 5/9 | 5/7 | 4/6 | 4/8 | 25/44 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 56% | 71% | 67% | 50% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| Saved | 1/5 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 20% | 0% | – | 0% | – | 4% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Samsonova | |||||||
| R1 Parks |
R2 Kvitova |
R3 Kostyuk |
1/4 Ostapenko |
1/2 Rybakina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-64 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-4 6-74 7-5 | 6-3 6-2 | 7-67 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 22 | 35 | 17 | 22 | 119 | |
| pts | 82-74 | 78-63 | 123-114 | 60-40 | 78-70 | 421-361 | |
| Total points | 156 | 141 | 237 | 100 | 148 | 782 | |
| Winners | 29 | 31 | 45 | 21 | 34 | 160 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 40% | 37% | 35% | 44% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 4 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 29 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 25 | |
| 1st in | 45/88 | 39/67 | 67/109 | 23/40 | 45/76 | 219/380 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 58% | 61% | 58% | 59% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 29/45 | 31/39 | 45/67 | 21/23 | 34/45 | 160/219 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 79% | 67% | 91% | 76% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/43 | 14/28 | 19/42 | 8/17 | 16/31 | 79/161 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 50% | 45% | 47% | 52% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/9 | 7/20 | 5/8 | 2/5 | 23/51 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 44% | 35% | 63% | 40% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 33 | |
| Saved | 9/13 | 1/3 | 8/13 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 69% | 33% | 62% | 0% | 67% | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-2) – H2H and prediction
