Elena Rybakina and Liudmila Samsonova will square off in the semifinal of the China Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:30 pm on Diamond. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.49
Liudmila Samsonova -> 2.62

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Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Liudmila Samsonova

This will be the 4^th time that Elena Rybakina and Liudmila Samsonova face off. The head to head is 3-0 for Samsonova (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Samsonova won 1-6 6-1 6-2 in the semifinal in Montreal back in August 2023.

Elena Rybakina

Ranked no. 5, the Kazakhstani reached the semifinal after defeating Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2, Tatjana Maria 7-5 6-0, Mirra Andreeva 2-6 6-4 6-1 and Aryna Sabalenka 7-5 6-2.

In the quarter, Rybakina had a good straight sets win against Sabalenka (7-5 6-2). During the match, Rybakina scored 72 points vs Sabalenka’s 59. The Kazakhstani was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about the service games, Rybakina fired 12 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Elena Rybakina lost the serve once. Furthermore, Rybakina put 62% of her first serves in, winning 77% (30/39) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Rybakina broke Sabalenka 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Kazakhstani has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points she played.

Rybakina has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (288-129). 30-8 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Rybakina has an overall126-63 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Indian Wells where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-6(11) 6-4 and in Rome where she beat Anhelina Kalinina in the final 6-4 1-0 ret..

The Kazakhstani has a compiled 46-12 win-loss record in 2023, 30-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

The Kazakhstani has never competed in this tournament before.

Liudmila Samsonova

Ranked no. 22, the Russian reached the semifinal after beating Alycia Parks 6-4 7-6⁴, Petra Kvitova 6-4 7-5, Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-7⁴ 7-5 and Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 6-2.

In the quarter, Samsonova had a good straight sets win against Ostapenko (6-3 6-2). During the match Samsonova scored 60 points vs Ostapenko’s 40. Ludmilla was exceptionally aggressive to blast 21 winners.

About the serving games, Samsonova managed to score 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Liudmila Samsonova lost the serve once. Furthermore, Samsonova put 58% of her first serves in, winning 91% (21/23) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (8/17) on the 2nd serve. Samsonova broke Ostapenko 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ludmilla has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Samsonova’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Abu Dhabi and Montreal.

The Russian has a compiled 31-21 win-loss record in 2023, 23-13 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Rybakina	Samsonova
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	9
Tot Games	78	97
Pts	273-196	343-291
Total Points	469	634
Winners	108	126
%Winners	40%	37%

Both Rybakina and Samsonova played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set, while Liudmila Samsonova dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Rybakina and Samsonova have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Rybakina played 19 games less than Samsonova. Elena scored 108 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Ludmilla bagged 126 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Rybakina	Samsonova
Aces	34	22
Avg per match	8.5	5.5
1st in	136/241	174/304
%1st in	56%	57%
1st pts	108/136	126/174
%1st pts	79%	72%
2nd pts	55/105	63/130
%2nd pts	52%	48%

Rybakina recorded 34 aces (8.5 per match). Samsonova bagged 22 aces (5.5 per match). Rybakina won 79% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Samsonova won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Rybakina	Samsonova
Won	17	21
Converted	17/28	21/46
% Converted	61%	46%
Conceded	11	30
Saved	6	18
% Saved	55%	60%
Times Broken	5	12

Elena broke her opponents 17 times with a 61% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 55% of the break points that she conceded. Ludmilla broke her opponents 21 times with a 46% conversion rate. Samsonova conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.

Rybakina
	R1 Zheng	R2 Maria	R3 Andreeva	1/4 Sabalenka	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	7-5 6-0	2-6 6-4 6-1	7-5 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	15	18	25	20	78
pts	54-28	63-36	84-73	72-59	273-196
Total points	82	99	157	131	469
Winners	22	20	36	30	108
%Winners	41%	32%	43%	42%	40%
SERVE
Aces	3	9	10	12	34
Double Faults	0	1	2	1	4
1st in	25/44	23/46	49/88	39/63	136/241
% 1st in	57%	50%	56%	62%	56%
1st pts	22/25	20/23	36/49	30/39	108/136
% 1st pts	88%	87%	73%	77%	79%
2nd pts	11/19	14/23	18/39	12/24	55/105
% 2nd pts	58%	61%	46%	50%	52%
Breaks
Won	4	5	4	4	17
Converted	4/7	5/7	4/5	4/9	17/28
Converted %	57%	71%	80%	44%	61%
Conceded	0	1	9	1	11
Saved	0/0	0/1	6/9	0/1	6
Saved %	–	0%	67%	0%	17%
Times Broken	0	1	3	1	5

Samsonova
	R1 Parks	R2 Kvitova	R3 Kostyuk	1/4 Ostapenko	Total
Score	6-4 7-64	6-4 7-5	6-4 6-74 7-5	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	23	22	35	17	97
pts	82-74	78-63	123-114	60-40	343-291
Total points	156	141	237	100	634
Winners	29	31	45	21	126
%Winners	35%	40%	37%	35%	37%
SERVE
Aces	4	7	4	7	22
Double Faults	7	3	8	3	21
1st in	45/88	39/67	67/109	23/40	174/304
% 1st in	51%	58%	61%	58%	57%
1st pts	29/45	31/39	45/67	21/23	126/174
% 1st pts	64%	79%	67%	91%	72%
2nd pts	22/43	14/28	19/42	8/17	63/130
% 2nd pts	51%	50%	45%	47%	48%
Breaks
Won	5	4	7	5	21
Converted	5/9	4/9	7/20	5/8	21/46
Converted %	56%	44%	35%	63%	46%
Conceded	13	3	13	1	30
Saved	9/13	1/3	8/13	0/1	18
Saved %	69%	33%	62%	0%	41%
Times Broken	4	2	5	1	12

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Caroline GarciaGarcia (6-7⁸ 7-6⁵ 6-1) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Magda Linette/Peyton StearnsLinette/Peyton Stearns – Beatriz Haddad Maia/Veronika KudermetovaHaddad Maia/Veronika Kudermetova (1-6 7-6³ 10-8) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-7) – H2H and prediction