Jelena Ostapenko and Liudmila Samsonova will clash against each other in the quarter of the China Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 4:30 pm on Diamond. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Liudmila Samsonova who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Liudmila Samsonova is the pick to win this match.
Liudmila Samsonova -> 1.81
Jelena Ostapenko -> 2
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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Liudmila Samsonova
This will be the 4th time that Jelena Ostapenko and Liudmila Samsonova fight against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Samsonova won 6-2 6-0 in the 3rd round in Madrid back in April 2023.
Highlights Liudmila Samsonova vs Jelena Ostapenko – Madrid 29-April-2023
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 9-8 | 3-2 | 4-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, Jelena reached the quarter after defeating Eva Lys 2-6 6-3 6-2, Linda Noskova w/o and Jessica Pegula 6-4 6-2.
In the 3rd round, Ostapenko had a good straight sets win against Pegula (6-4 6-2). During the match, Ostapenko scored 70 points vs Pegula’s 55. The Latvian was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ostapenko struck 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve twice and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 64% of her first serves in, winning 61% (25/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 57% (13/23) on the 2nd serve. Jelena broke Pegula 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Latvian has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 54% of the points she played.
Ostapenko has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 61% of her matches (324-204). 21-13 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Ostapenko has a compiled 120-98 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Birmingham where she beat Barbora Krejcikova in the final 7-6(8) 6-4.
Jelena has an overall 36-19 win-loss record in 2023, 21-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Liudmila Samsonova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-23 | 12-15 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-24 | 25-15 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-17 | 26-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-22 | 15-9 | 6-9 | 8-3 | 10-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-12 | 10-6 | 4-4 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, Samsonova reached the quarter after beating Alycia Parks 6-4 7-64, Petra Kvitova 6-4 7-5 and Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-74 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The Russian defeated Kostyuk (6-4 6-74 7-5). During the match Samsonova scored 123 points vs Kostyuk’s 114. Ludmilla was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Samsonova made 4 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Liudmila Samsonova lost the serve 5 times and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Samsonova put 61% of her first serves in, winning 67% (45/67) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (19/42) on the 2nd serve. Samsonova broke Kostyuk 7 times after converting 35% of her break points (7/20).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Samsonova’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Abu Dhabi and Montreal.
Ludmilla has a compiled 30-21 win-loss record in 2023, 22-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 43 | 80 |
| Pts | 162-139 | 283-251 |
| Total Points | 301 | 534 |
| Winners | 58 | 105 |
| %Winners | 36% | 37% |
Ostapenko played 2 matches while Samsonova competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jelena Ostapenko surrendered 1 set, while Liudmila Samsonova lost 1 set. Ostapenko has played 2 set(s) less than Samsonova (5 vs 7). Therefore, Ostapenko played 37 games less than Samsonova. Jelena scored 58 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Ludmilla scored 105 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 5 |
| 1st in | 98/163 | 151/264 |
| %1st in | 60% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 58/98 | 105/151 |
| %1st pts | 59% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 31/65 | 55/113 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 49% |
Ostapenko struck 8 aces (4 per match). Samsonova bagged 15 aces (5 per match). Ostapenko won 59% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Samsonova won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ostapenko | Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 16 |
| Converted | 12/19 | 16/38 |
| % Converted | 63% | 42% |
| Conceded | 24 | 29 |
| Saved | 16 | 18 |
| % Saved | 67% | 62% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 11 |
The Latvian broke her opponents 12 times with a 63% conversion rate. Ostapenko dropped her serve 8 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Samsonova broke her opponents 16 times with a 42% conversion rate. Ludmilla conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.
| Ostapenko | |||||
| R1 Lys |
R2 Noskova |
R3 Pegula |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | w/o | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | – | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | – | 18 | 43 | |
| pts | 92-84 | – | 70-55 | 162-139 | |
| Total points | 176 | – | 125 | 301 | |
| Winners | 33 | – | 25 | 58 | |
| %Winners | 36% | – | 36% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | – | 5 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | – | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 57/99 | – | 41/64 | 98/163 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | – | 64% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 33/57 | – | 25/41 | 58/98 | |
| % 1st pts | 58% | – | 61% | 59% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/42 | – | 13/23 | 31/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | – | 57% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | – | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 7/10 | – | 5/9 | 12/19 | |
| Converted % | 70% | – | 56% | 63% | |
| Conceded | 16 | – | 8 | 24 | |
| Saved | 10/16 | – | 6/8 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 63% | – | 75% | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | – | 2 | 8 | |
| Samsonova | |||||
| R1 Parks |
R2 Kvitova |
R3 Kostyuk |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-64 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-4 6-74 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 22 | 35 | 80 | |
| pts | 82-74 | 78-63 | 123-114 | 283-251 | |
| Total points | 156 | 141 | 237 | 534 | |
| Winners | 29 | 31 | 45 | 105 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 40% | 37% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 3 | 8 | 18 | |
| 1st in | 45/88 | 39/67 | 67/109 | 151/264 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 58% | 61% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 29/45 | 31/39 | 45/67 | 105/151 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 79% | 67% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/43 | 14/28 | 19/42 | 55/113 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 50% | 45% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/9 | 7/20 | 16/38 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 44% | 35% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 3 | 13 | 29 | |
| Saved | 9/13 | 1/3 | 8/13 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 69% | 33% | 62% | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWLLWWW
LLLLWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (6-4 7-64) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (7-65 6-2) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Xinyu WangWang (6-4 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Magda LinetteLinette (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-4 6-74 7-5) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (2-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (6-4 7-6(4)) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Xinyu WangWang (6-4 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena RybakinaRybakina (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Cori GauffGauff (4-2) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-2) – H2H and prediction
