Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini will play each other in the 3^rd round of the China Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 7:30 pm on DIAMOND. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.128
Jasmine Paolini -> 6.05

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini

This will be the 4^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Paolini (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Paolini won 2-6 6-3 6-3 in the 2^nd round in Indian Wells back in 2022.

Highlights Jasmine Paolini vs Aryna Sabalenka – Indian Wells 12-March-2022

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the 3^rd round after beating Sofia Kenin 6-1 6-2 and Katie Boulter 7-5 7-6².

In the 2^nd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Boulter (7-5 7-6²). During the match, Sabalenka scored 107 points vs Boulter’s 95. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka fired 8 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 61% of her first serves in, winning 67% (41/61) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (22/39) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Boulter 3 times after converting 25% of her break points (3/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 68% of her matches (315-151). 32-6 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate186-82 record in the last 8 years on hard.

Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Adelaide where she defeated Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she beat Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she defeated Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.

The Belarussian has a compiled 52-11 win-loss record in 2023, 32-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Jasmine Paolini

Ranked no. 36, Jasmine reached the 3^rd round after beating Beatriz Haddad Maia 3-6 6-4 6-4 and Yue Yuan 2-6 6-3 6-4.

In the 2^nd round against Yuan, Jasmine recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-4).During the match Paolini scored less points (1) than Yuan. In fact, the world no. 1 won 80 points vs Yuan’s. That means that Paolini was more focused during the important points. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.

About the serving games, Paolini couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve 5 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 70% of her first serves in, winning 51% (28/55) of the points behind her 1st serve and 71% (17/24) on the 2nd serve. Paolini broke Yuan 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Paolini has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was winning the title the Florence where she defeated Taylor Townsend in the final 6-3 7-5.

Jasmine has a compiled 33-26 win-loss record in 2023, 13-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Paolini
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	6
Tot Games	40	56
Pts	168-123	193-187
Total Points	291	380
Winners	63	74
%Winners	38%	38%

Both Sabalenka and Paolini played 2 matches. At the moment, Jasmine Paolini surrendered 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Paolini (4 vs 6). Therefore, Sabalenka played 16 games less than Paolini. Sabalenka scored 63 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Jasmine blasted 74 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Paolini
Aces	13	1
Avg per match	6.5	0.5
1st in	84/139	144/196
%1st in	60%	73%
1st pts	63/84	74/144
%1st pts	75%	51%
2nd pts	33/55	30/52
%2nd pts	60%	58%

Sabalenka bagged 13 aces (6.5 per match). Paolini fired 1 ace (0.5 per match). Sabalenka won 75% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Paolini won 51% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Paolini
Won	7	13
Converted	7/21	13/30
% Converted	33%	43%
Conceded	12	25
Saved	10	12
% Saved	83%	48%
Times Broken	2	13

Aryna broke her opponents 7 times with a 33% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve twice and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded. The Italian broke her opponents 13 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Italian conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 48% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R1 Kenin	R2 Boulter	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	7-5 7-62
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	15	25	40
pts	61-28	107-95	168-123
Total points	89	202	291
Winners	22	41	63
%Winners	36%	38%	38%
SERVE
Aces	5	8	13
Double Faults	2	7	9
1st in	23/39	61/100	84/139
% 1st in	59%	61%	60%
1st pts	22/23	41/61	63/84
% 1st pts	96%	67%	75%
2nd pts	11/16	22/39	33/55
% 2nd pts	69%	56%	60%
Breaks
Won	4	3	7
Converted	4/9	3/12	7/21
Converted %	44%	25%	33%
Conceded	0	12	12
Saved	0/0	10/12	10
Saved %	–	83%	42%
Times Broken	0	2	2

Paolini
	R1 Haddad Maia	R2 Yuan	Total
Score	3-6 6-4 6-4	2-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	29	27	56
pts	113-106	80-81	193-187
Total points	219	161	380
Winners	46	28	74
%Winners	41%	35%	38%
SERVE
Aces	1	0	1
Double Faults	1	1	2
1st in	89/117	55/79	144/196
% 1st in	76%	70%	73%
1st pts	46/89	28/55	74/144
% 1st pts	52%	51%	51%
2nd pts	13/28	17/24	30/52
% 2nd pts	46%	71%	58%
Breaks
Won	8	5	13
Converted	8/20	5/10	13/30
Converted %	40%	50%	43%
Conceded	19	6	25
Saved	11/19	1/6	12
Saved %	58%	17%	38%
Times Broken	8	5	13

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-4 6-7⁴ 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Magda LinetteLinette (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (2-6 6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Maria SakkariSakkari – Xin Yu WangYu Wang (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Anhelina KalininaKalinina – Caroline GarciaGarcia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction