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Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will play each other in the final of the China Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 7:30 pm on DIAMOND. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.59
Jannik Sinner -> 2.36
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 7th time that Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner clash against each other. The head to head is 6-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Medvedev won 7-5 6-3 in the final in Miami back in April 2023.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner – Miami 02-April-2023
Daniil Medvedev
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Medvedev got to the final after defeating Tommy Paul 6-2 6-1, Alex De Minaur 7-63 6-3, Ugo Humbert 6-4 3-6 6-1 and Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Zverev (6-4 6-3). During the match, Medvedev scored 62 points vs Zverev’s 46. Daniil was exceptionally aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about the service games, Medvedev made 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Daniil Medvedev was quite effective on serve to win 80% (33/41) of his 1st serve and 69% (11/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Daniil broke Zverev twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev has surrendered 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Medvedev has an impressive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (482-190). 37-6 on hard in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has a compiled 218-68 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he beat Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he defeated Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Miami where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Rome where he overcame Holger Rune in the final 7-5 7-5.
Daniil has a composed 59-12 win-loss record in 2023, 37-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Medvedev has never competed in this tournament before.
Jannik Sinner
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 7-0 | 7-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, the Italian reached the final after defeating Daniel Evans 6-4 6-72 6-3, Yoshihito Nishioka 6-2 6-0, Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 3-6 6-2 and Carlos Alcaraz 7-64 6-1.
In the semifinal, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Alcaraz (7-64 6-1). During the match Sinner scored 75 points vs Alcaraz’s 63. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Sinner scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jannik Sinner lost the serve twice and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 59% of his first serves in, winning 66% (29/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (15/31) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Alcaraz 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sinner has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Montpellier where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3 and in Toronto where he overcame Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-1.
Jannik has an aggregate 48-13 win-loss record in 2023, 25-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Medvedev | Sinner |
---|---|---|
Match played | 4 | 4 |
Tot Set | 9 | 10 |
Tot Games | 82 | 93 |
Pts | 300-231 | 333-281 |
Total Points | 531 | 614 |
Winners | 134 | 119 |
%Winners | 45% | 36% |
Both Medvedev and Sinner played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev dropped 1 set, while Jannik Sinner surrendered 2 sets. Medvedev has played 1 set(s) less than Sinner (9 vs 10). Therefore, Medvedev played 11 games less than Sinner. Daniil scored 134 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Sinner fired 119 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Medvedev | Sinner |
---|---|---|
Aces | 27 | 23 |
Avg per match | 6.8 | 5.8 |
1st in | 176/263 | 170/303 |
%1st in | 67% | 56% |
1st pts | 134/176 | 119/170 |
%1st pts | 76% | 70% |
2nd pts | 42/87 | 77/133 |
%2nd pts | 48% | 58% |
Medvedev struck 27 aces (6.8 per match). Sinner struck 23 aces (5.8 per match). Medvedev won 76% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Medvedev | Sinner |
---|---|---|
Won | 16 | 18 |
Converted | 16/36 | 18/40 |
% Converted | 44% | 45% |
Conceded | 16 | 23 |
Saved | 9 | 17 |
% Saved | 56% | 74% |
Times Broken | 7 | 6 |
Daniil broke his opponents 16 times with a 44% conversion rate. Daniil surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 18 times with a 45% conversion rate. Jannik conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded.
Medvedev | ||||||
R1 Paul |
R2 De Minaur |
1/4 Humbert |
1/2 Zverev |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-2 6-1 | 7-63 6-3 | 6-4 3-6 6-1 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
Tot Games | 15 | 22 | 26 | 19 | 82 | |
pts | 66-37 | 83-74 | 89-74 | 62-46 | 300-231 | |
Total points | 103 | 157 | 163 | 108 | 531 | |
Winners | 29 | 35 | 37 | 33 | 134 | |
%Winners | 44% | 42% | 42% | 53% | 45% | |
SERVE | ||||||
Aces | 9 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 27 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 21 | |
1st in | 34/50 | 47/74 | 54/82 | 41/57 | 176/263 | |
% 1st in | 68% | 64% | 66% | 72% | 67% | |
1st pts | 29/34 | 35/47 | 37/54 | 33/41 | 134/176 | |
% 1st pts | 85% | 74% | 69% | 80% | 76% | |
2nd pts | 7/16 | 11/27 | 13/28 | 11/16 | 42/87 | |
% 2nd pts | 44% | 41% | 46% | 69% | 48% | |
Breaks | ||||||
Won | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 16 | |
Converted | 5/11 | 3/9 | 6/12 | 2/4 | 16/36 | |
Converted % | 45% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 44% | |
Conceded | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
Saved | 3/4 | 1/3 | 1/5 | 4/4 | 9 | |
Saved % | 75% | 33% | 20% | 100% | 57% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
Sinner | ||||||
R1 Evans |
R2 Nishioka |
1/4 Dimitrov |
1/2 Alcaraz |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-4 6-72 6-3 | 6-2 6-0 | 6-4 3-6 6-2 | 7-64 6-1 | ||
Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
Tot Games | 32 | 14 | 27 | 20 | 93 | |
pts | 104-96 | 60-34 | 94-88 | 75-63 | 333-281 | |
Total points | 200 | 94 | 182 | 138 | 614 | |
Winners | 37 | 19 | 34 | 29 | 119 | |
%Winners | 36% | 32% | 36% | 39% | 36% | |
SERVE | ||||||
Aces | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | |
Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
1st in | 55/100 | 21/43 | 50/85 | 44/75 | 170/303 | |
% 1st in | 55% | 49% | 59% | 59% | 56% | |
1st pts | 37/55 | 19/21 | 34/50 | 29/44 | 119/170 | |
% 1st pts | 67% | 90% | 68% | 66% | 70% | |
2nd pts | 28/45 | 11/22 | 23/35 | 15/31 | 77/133 | |
% 2nd pts | 62% | 50% | 66% | 48% | 58% | |
Breaks | ||||||
Won | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 | |
Converted | 4/6 | 6/11 | 3/15 | 5/8 | 18/40 | |
Converted % | 67% | 55% | 20% | 63% | 45% | |
Conceded | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 23 | |
Saved | 2/4 | 1/2 | 7/8 | 7/9 | 17 | |
Saved % | 50% | 50% | 88% | 78% | 67% | |
Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-6) – H2H and prediction