Jessica Pegula and Jelena Ostapenko will play each other in the 3rd round of the China Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 12:00 pm on DIAMOND. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.47
Jelena Ostapenko -> 2.69
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Jelena Ostapenko
This will be the 5th time that Jessica Pegula and Jelena Ostapenko play each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Pegula won 6-2 2-6 7-5 in the 2nd round in Doha back in February 2023.
Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko – Doha 15-February-2023
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 53-23 | 35-12 | 11-5 | 3-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Jessica reached the 3rd round after beating Anna Blinkova 6-72 6-2 6-1.
In the 2nd round against Blinkova, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-72 6-2 6-1). During the match, Pegula scored 102 points vs Blinkova’s 81. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Pegula blasted 4 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Jessica Pegula was pretty efficient on serve to win 73% (30/41) of her 1st serve and 52% (22/42) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Jessica broke Blinkova 7 times after converting 37% of her break points (7/19).
Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (290-164). 36-10 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has an aggregate 177-88 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Australia where she defeated Martina Trevisan in the final 6-4 6-2 and in Montreal where she beat Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-0.
Jessica has an aggregate 50-16 win-loss record in 2023, 36-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-20 | 8-14 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, the Latvian reached the 3rd round after defeating Eva Lys 2-6 6-3 6-2 and Linda Noskova w/o.
In the 2nd round, Ostapenko defeated Noskova (w/o). During the match Ostapenko and Noskova scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 4 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Latvian was not very aggressive do strike just winners.
About the serving games, Ostapenko couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jelena Ostapenko conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of her first serves in, win 0% (/) of the points behind her 1st serve and 0% (/) on the 2nd serve.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Birmingham where she beat Barbora Krejcikova in the final 7-6(8) 6-4.
Jelena has an aggregate 35-19 win-loss record in 2023, 20-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 28 | 25 |
| Pts | 102-81 | 92-84 |
| Total Points | 183 | 176 |
| Winners | 30 | 33 |
| %Winners | 29% | 36% |
Both Pegula and Ostapenko played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula lost 1 set, while Jelena Ostapenko conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Ostapenko have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Pegula played 3 games more than Ostapenko. Pegula scored 30 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, Jelena recorded 33 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 3 |
| 1st in | 41/83 | 57/99 |
| %1st in | 49% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 30/41 | 33/57 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 58% |
| 2nd pts | 22/42 | 18/42 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 43% |
Pegula managed to score 4 aces . Ostapenko bagged 3 aces . Pegula won 73% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Ostapenko won 58% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 7 |
| Converted | 7/19 | 7/10 |
| % Converted | 37% | 70% |
| Conceded | 4 | 16 |
| Saved | 2 | 10 |
| % Saved | 50% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 6 |
Jessica broke her opponent 7 times with a 37% conversion rate. Pegula conceded her serve twice and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The Latvian broke her opponent 7 times with a 70% conversion rate. Ostapenko conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | |||
| R2 Blinkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-72 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 28 | |
| pts | 102-81 | 102-81 | |
| Total points | 183 | 183 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 29% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 41/83 | 41/83 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 49% | |
| 1st pts | 30/41 | 30/41 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/42 | 22/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 7 | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/19 | 7/19 | |
| Converted % | 37% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Ostapenko | ||||
| R1 Lys |
R2 Noskova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | w/o | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | – | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | – | 25 | |
| pts | 92-84 | – | 92-84 | |
| Total points | 176 | – | 176 | |
| Winners | 33 | – | 33 | |
| %Winners | 36% | – | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | – | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | – | 6 | |
| 1st in | 57/99 | – | 57/99 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | – | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 33/57 | – | 33/57 | |
| % 1st pts | 58% | – | 58% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/42 | – | 18/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | – | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | – | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/10 | – | 7/10 | |
| Converted % | 70% | – | 70% | |
| Conceded | 16 | – | 16 | |
| Saved | 10/16 | – | 10 | |
| Saved % | 63% | – | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | – | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWLWWWWL
LLLLWLLWLL Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (6-72 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Ons JabeurJabeur (7-65 6-1) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Tatjana MariaMaria (7-5 6-0) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Xinyu WangWang – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Hao-Ching Chan/Giuliana OlmosChan/Giuliana Olmos – Storm Hunter/Elise MertensHunter/Elise Mertens (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (3-6 6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Petra MarticMartic (7-5 5-7 7-62) – See score progression
- Magda Linette/Peyton StearnsLinette/Peyton Stearns – Gabriela Dabrowski/Erin RoutliffeDabrowski/Erin Routliffe (6-2 7-63) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Katie BoulterBoulter (7-5 7-62) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Linda NoskovaNoskova (w/o) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Petra KvitovaKvitova (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Magda LinetteLinette – Jennifer BradyBrady (3-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Anhelina KalininaKalinina – Daria SavilleSaville (6-2 7-65) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Yue YuanYuan (2-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Katie BoulterBoulter (7-5 7-6(2)) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Tatjana MariaMaria (7-5 6-0) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (6-7(2) 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Ons JabeurJabeur (7-6(5) 6-1) – See score progression
- Xinyu WangWang – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (3-6 6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Petra MarticMartic (7-5 5-7 7-6(2)) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Maria SakkariSakkari – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Anhelina KalininaKalinina – Caroline GarciaGarcia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Magda LinetteLinette – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-0) – H2H and prediction
