Sebastian Korda and Adrian Mannarino will face off in the final of the Astana Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 3:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Korda who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Korda is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Korda -> 1.56
Adrian Mannarino -> 2.43
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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Korda vs. Adrian Mannarino
There is no head to head record between Sebastian Korda and Adrian Mannarino since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Sebastian Korda
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-19 | 17-9 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 26-16 | 18-8 | 1-3 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 34-22 | 13-9 | 8-6 | 12-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-20 | 12-8 | 6-5 | 13-5 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 22-10 | 6-4 | 6-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 7-1 |
Ranked no. 28, Sebastian reached the final after defeating Alexei Popyrin 7-65 6-74 6-4, Nuno Borges 6-4 7-64, Tallon Griekspoor 6-4 4-6 6-3 and Hamad Medjedovic 6-78 7-62 7-63.
In the semifinal against Medjedovic, Sebastian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-78 7-62 7-63). During the match, Korda scored 123 points vs Medjedovic’s 112. Sebastian was pretty aggressive to blast 66 winners.
Talking about the service games, Korda fired 18 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Sebastian Korda was quite effective on serve to win 87% (66/76) of his 1st serve and 61% (23/38) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 3 set in this event to win 52% of the points he played.
Korda has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 61% of his matches (207-133). 4-0 on indoor hard courts in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Korda has an aggregate39-20 win-loss record in the last 8 years on indoor hard courts.
Sebastian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Adelaide.
The American has a compiled 22-12 win-loss record in 2023, 4-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Astana
Korda has never competed in this tournament before.
Adrian Mannarino
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17-33 | 9-17 | 0-5 | 7-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-29 | 15-13 | 2-8 | 15-4 | 12-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-32 | 18-14 | 1-6 | 8-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 14-26 | 5-7 | 0-7 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-17 | 8-7 | 0-3 | 11-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 34, Adrian reached the final after beating Arthur Rinderknech 7-64 6-2, Alibek Kachmazov 6-2 5-7 6-3, Jurij Rodionov 6-1 7-66 and Sebastian Ofner 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal, Mannarino had a good straight sets win against Ofner (6-4 6-2). During the match Mannarino scored 58 points vs Ofner’s 44. The French player was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, Mannarino recorded 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Adrian Mannarino was exceptionally effective on serve to win 75% (24/32) of his 1st serve and 52% (11/21) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The French player was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Ofner 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Newport where he overcame Alex Michelsen in the final 6-2 6-4.
Adrian has a compiled 37-25 win-loss record in 2023, 9-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Astana
Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Korda | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 127 | 88 |
| Pts | 401-364 | 306-256 |
| Total Points | 765 | 562 |
| Winners | 201 | 121 |
| %Winners | 50% | 40% |
Both Korda and Mannarino played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sebastian Korda surrendered 3 sets, while Adrian Mannarino surrendered 1 set. Korda has played 2 sets more than Mannarino (11 vs 9). Therefore, Korda played 39 games more than Mannarino. Sebastian scored 201 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Mannarino bagged 121 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Korda | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 61 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 15.3 | 3 |
| 1st in | 250/376 | 172/296 |
| %1st in | 66% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 201/250 | 121/172 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 76/126 | 64/124 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 52% |
Korda made 61 aces (15.3 per match). Mannarino blasted 12 aces (3 per match). Korda won 80% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Mannarino won 70% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Korda | Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 19 |
| Converted | 6/16 | 19/30 |
| % Converted | 38% | 63% |
| Conceded | 16 | 29 |
| Saved | 13 | 20 |
| % Saved | 81% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 9 |
Korda broke his opponents 6 times with a 38% conversion rate. Korda surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 81% of the break points that he conceded. Adrian broke his opponents 19 times with a 63% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.
| Korda | ||||||
| R1 Popyrin |
R2 Borges |
1/4 Griekspoor |
1/2 Medjedovic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-74 6-4 | 6-4 7-64 | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | 6-78 7-62 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 36 | 23 | 29 | 39 | 127 | |
| pts | 127-117 | 70-57 | 81-78 | 123-112 | 401-364 | |
| Total points | 244 | 127 | 159 | 235 | 765 | |
| Winners | 65 | 30 | 40 | 66 | 201 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 43% | 49% | 54% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 19 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 61 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 83/118 | 37/62 | 54/82 | 76/114 | 250/376 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 60% | 66% | 67% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 65/83 | 30/37 | 40/54 | 66/76 | 201/250 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 81% | 74% | 87% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/35 | 18/25 | 20/28 | 23/38 | 76/126 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 72% | 71% | 61% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 2/3 | 2/7 | 0/3 | 6/16 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 67% | 29% | 0% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | |
| Saved | 7/8 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 88% | 67% | 67% | 100% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mannarino | ||||||
| R1 Rinderknech |
R2 Kachmazov |
1/4 Rodionov |
1/2 Ofner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-2 | 6-2 5-7 6-3 | 6-1 7-66 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 29 | 20 | 18 | 88 | |
| pts | 79-67 | 96-86 | 73-59 | 58-44 | 306-256 | |
| Total points | 146 | 182 | 132 | 102 | 562 | |
| Winners | 34 | 35 | 28 | 24 | 121 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 47/78 | 55/94 | 38/71 | 32/53 | 172/296 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 59% | 54% | 60% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 34/47 | 35/55 | 28/38 | 24/32 | 121/172 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 64% | 74% | 75% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/31 | 19/39 | 17/33 | 11/21 | 64/124 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 49% | 52% | 52% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 8/13 | 4/4 | 4/4 | 19/30 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 62% | 100% | 100% | 63% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 29 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 5/10 | 8/10 | 1/2 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 50% | 80% | 50% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (0-0) – H2H and prediction
