H2H, prediction of Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner in Beijing with odds, preview, pick | 3rd October 2023

PREVIEW. Beijing. Alcaraz and Sinner will play each other in the semifinal of the China Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match on Tuesday the 3rd of October

Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will play each other in the semifinal of the China Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:30 pm on DIAMOND. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.31
Jannik Sinner -> 3.46

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

This will be the 8th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner fight against each other. The head to head is 4-3 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Sinner won 6-7(4) 6-4 6-2 in the semifinal in Miami back in March 2023.

Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz – Miami 31-March-2023

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
3
High
1
LWWWWWWWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 11-2 6-2 0-0 5-0 0-0 0-0
2024 54-15 22-7 17-4 7-3 8-1 0-0
2023 65-12 26-6 25-3 2-3 12-0 0-0
2022 57-13 21-4 27-4 6-4 3-1 0-0
2021 48-19 15-8 22-7 10-3 1-1 0-0

Ranked no. 2, the Spaniard reached the semifinal after beating Yannick Hanfmann 6-4 6-3, Lorenzo Musetti 6-2 6-2 and Casper Ruud 6-4 6-2.

In the quarter, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Ruud (6-4 6-2). During the match, Alcaraz scored 76 points vs Ruud’s 56. Alcaraz was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was extremely effective on serve to win 71% (27/38) of his 1st serve and 65% (11/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alcaraz broke Ruud 4 times after converting 27% of his break points (4/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carlos hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 6 years having won 80% of his matches (229-58). 24-4 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an aggregate73-18 record in the last 6 years on hard.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Buenos Aires where he defeated Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Indian Wells where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Barcelona where he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where he defeated Jan-Lennard Struff in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and in London where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-4 and at the Wimbledon where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4.

Alcaraz has an overall 61-7 win-loss record in 2023, 24-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.

Alcaraz
Beijing
Alcaraz's Record

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner
Jannik Sinner

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
1
High
1
WWWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 7-0 7-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 73-8 40-5 11-2 13-0 9-1 0-0
2023 64-15 28-7 8-3 20-2 8-3 0-0
2022 47-16 21-6 15-4 7-4 4-2 0-0
2021 49-22 22-8 10-6 17-6 0-2 0-0

Ranked no. 7, Jannik got to the semifinal after beating Daniel Evans 6-4 6-72 6-3, Yoshihito Nishioka 6-2 6-0 and Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 3-6 6-2.

In the quarter, Sinner defeated Dimitrov (6-4 3-6 6-2). During the match Sinner scored 94 points vs Dimitrov’s 88. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about serving, Sinner bagged 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jannik Sinner lost the serve once and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 59% of his first serves in, winning 68% (34/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 66% (23/35) on the 2nd serve. Jannik broke Dimitrov 3 times after converting 20% of his break points (3/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sinner has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Montpellier where he defeated Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3 and in Toronto where he overcame Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-1.

The Italian has an aggregate 47-13 win-loss record in 2023, 24-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Sinner
Beijing
Sinner's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

C.Alcaraz
J.Sinner
4h:42
4h:42
Time on court​
6h:28
6h:28
1h:44
1h:44
Last match​
!
2h:31
2h:31
3
3
Match played
3
3
53
53
Games Played​
73
73
6
6
Set played​​
8
8
201
201
Total points​
258
258
67
67
Avg point​
86
86
75
75
Winners
90
90
25
25
Avg Winners​
30
30
37%
37%
Ratio winners
35%
35%
-- Serve --
9
9
Aces
22
22
3
3
Avg Aces
7.3
7.3
8
8
Double Faults
4
4
2.7
2.7
Avg Double Faults
1.3
1.3
75/104
75/104
1st won total​
90/126
90/126
!
72%
72%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
30/51
30/51
2nd won total​
62/102
62/102
59%
59%
2nd won %
!
61%
61%
-- Break Points --
13/36
13/36
BP won
13/32
13/32
4.3/12
4.3/12
Avg BP won
4.3/10.7
4.3/10.7
36%
36%
Won
41%
41%
8
8
Conceded
14
14
2.7
2.7
Avg Conceded
4.7
4.7
3
3
Broken
4
4
1
1
Avg Broken
1.3
1.3
5
5
Saved
10
10

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Alcaraz Sinner
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 6 8
Tot Games 53 73
Pts 201-152 258-218
Total Points 353 476
Winners 75 90
%Winners 37% 35%

Both Alcaraz and Sinner played 3 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner dropped 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Alcaraz has played 2 set(s) less than Sinner (6 vs 8). Therefore, Alcaraz played 20 games less than Sinner. The Spaniard scored 75 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Sinner fired 90 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve Alcaraz Sinner
Aces 9 22
Avg per match 3 7.3
1st in 104/155 126/228
%1st in 67% 55%
1st pts 75/104 90/126
%1st pts 72% 71%
2nd pts 30/51 62/102
%2nd pts 59% 61%

Alcaraz scored 9 aces (3 per match). Sinner blasted 22 aces (7.3 per match). Alcaraz won 72% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Alcaraz Sinner
Won 13 13
Converted 13/36 13/32
% Converted 36% 41%
Conceded 8 14
Saved 5 10
% Saved 63% 71%
Times Broken 3 4

The Spaniard broke his opponents 13 times with a 36% conversion rate. Alcaraz surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Jannik broke his opponents 13 times with a 41% conversion rate. Sinner conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
R1
Hanfmann
R2
Musetti
1/4
Ruud
Total
Score 6-4 6-3 6-2 6-2 6-4 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 19 16 18 53
pts 70-56 55-40 76-56 201-152
Total points 126 95 132 353
Winners 24 24 27 75
%Winners 34% 44% 36% 37%
SERVE
Aces 2 1 6 9
Double Faults 4 3 1 8
1st in 30/47 36/53 38/55 104/155
% 1st in 64% 68% 69% 67%
1st pts 24/30 24/36 27/38 75/104
% 1st pts 80% 67% 71% 72%
2nd pts 8/17 11/17 11/17 30/51
% 2nd pts 47% 65% 65% 59%
Breaks
Won 5 4 4 13
Converted 5/16 4/5 4/15 13/36
Converted % 31% 80% 27% 36%
Conceded 3 3 2 8
Saved 1/3 3/3 1/2 5
Saved % 33% 100% 50% 61%
Times Broken 2 0 1 3
Sinner
R1
Evans
R2
Nishioka
1/4
Dimitrov
Total
Score 6-4 6-72 6-3 6-2 6-0 6-4 3-6 6-2
Tot Set 3 2 3 8
Tot Games 32 14 27 73
pts 104-96 60-34 94-88 258-218
Total points 200 94 182 476
Winners 37 19 34 90
%Winners 36% 32% 36% 35%
SERVE
Aces 11 8 3 22
Double Faults 2 1 1 4
1st in 55/100 21/43 50/85 126/228
% 1st in 55% 49% 59% 55%
1st pts 37/55 19/21 34/50 90/126
% 1st pts 67% 90% 68% 71%
2nd pts 28/45 11/22 23/35 62/102
% 2nd pts 62% 50% 66% 61%
Breaks
Won 4 6 3 13
Converted 4/6 6/11 3/15 13/32
Converted % 67% 55% 20% 41%
Conceded 4 2 8 14
Saved 2/4 1/2 7/8 10
Saved % 50% 50% 88% 63%
Times Broken 2 1 1 4

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Alcaraz
LWWWWWWWLW
Sinner
WWWWWWW
2025 2024 2023
11 - 2
7 - 0
6-2
Hard
7-0
5-0
I Hard
0-0

Tennis Scores in Beijing

  • Jannik SinnerSinnerGrigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-4 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
  • Alexander ZverevZverevNicolas JarryJarry (6-1 6-75 6-3) – See score progression
  • Daniil MedvedevMedvedevUgo HumbertHumbert (6-4 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
  • Carlos AlcarazAlcarazCasper RuudRuud (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
  • Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinMarcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (6-75 7-65 10-5) – See score progression
  • Ivan Dodig/Austin KrajicekDodig/Austin KrajicekMarcelo Melo/Alexander ZverevMelo/Alexander Zverev (7-65 4-6 11-9) – See score progression
  • Karen Khachanov/Andrey RublevKhachanov/Andrey RublevAlexander Erler/Lucas MiedlerErler/Lucas Miedler (7-5 7-64) – See score progression
  • Carlos AlcarazAlcarazCasper RuudRuud (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
  • Jannik SinnerSinnerGrigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-4 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw