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Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will play each other in the semifinal of the China Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:30 pm on DIAMOND. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.31
Jannik Sinner -> 3.46
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 8th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner fight against each other. The head to head is 4-3 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sinner won 6-7(4) 6-4 6-2 in the semifinal in Miami back in March 2023.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz – Miami 31-March-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 54-15 | 22-7 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Spaniard reached the semifinal after beating Yannick Hanfmann 6-4 6-3, Lorenzo Musetti 6-2 6-2 and Casper Ruud 6-4 6-2.
In the quarter, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Ruud (6-4 6-2). During the match, Alcaraz scored 76 points vs Ruud’s 56. Alcaraz was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was extremely effective on serve to win 71% (27/38) of his 1st serve and 65% (11/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alcaraz broke Ruud 4 times after converting 27% of his break points (4/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 6 years having won 80% of his matches (229-58). 24-4 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an aggregate73-18 record in the last 6 years on hard.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Buenos Aires where he defeated Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Indian Wells where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Barcelona where he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where he defeated Jan-Lennard Struff in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and in London where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-4 and at the Wimbledon where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4.
Alcaraz has an overall 61-7 win-loss record in 2023, 24-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.
Jannik Sinner
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 7-0 | 7-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, Jannik got to the semifinal after beating Daniel Evans 6-4 6-72 6-3, Yoshihito Nishioka 6-2 6-0 and Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 3-6 6-2.
In the quarter, Sinner defeated Dimitrov (6-4 3-6 6-2). During the match Sinner scored 94 points vs Dimitrov’s 88. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about serving, Sinner bagged 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jannik Sinner lost the serve once and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 59% of his first serves in, winning 68% (34/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 66% (23/35) on the 2nd serve. Jannik broke Dimitrov 3 times after converting 20% of his break points (3/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sinner has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Montpellier where he defeated Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3 and in Toronto where he overcame Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-1.
The Italian has an aggregate 47-13 win-loss record in 2023, 24-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Alcaraz | Sinner |
---|---|---|
Match played | 3 | 3 |
Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
Tot Games | 53 | 73 |
Pts | 201-152 | 258-218 |
Total Points | 353 | 476 |
Winners | 75 | 90 |
%Winners | 37% | 35% |
Both Alcaraz and Sinner played 3 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner dropped 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Alcaraz has played 2 set(s) less than Sinner (6 vs 8). Therefore, Alcaraz played 20 games less than Sinner. The Spaniard scored 75 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Sinner fired 90 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Alcaraz | Sinner |
---|---|---|
Aces | 9 | 22 |
Avg per match | 3 | 7.3 |
1st in | 104/155 | 126/228 |
%1st in | 67% | 55% |
1st pts | 75/104 | 90/126 |
%1st pts | 72% | 71% |
2nd pts | 30/51 | 62/102 |
%2nd pts | 59% | 61% |
Alcaraz scored 9 aces (3 per match). Sinner blasted 22 aces (7.3 per match). Alcaraz won 72% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Alcaraz | Sinner |
---|---|---|
Won | 13 | 13 |
Converted | 13/36 | 13/32 |
% Converted | 36% | 41% |
Conceded | 8 | 14 |
Saved | 5 | 10 |
% Saved | 63% | 71% |
Times Broken | 3 | 4 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 13 times with a 36% conversion rate. Alcaraz surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Jannik broke his opponents 13 times with a 41% conversion rate. Sinner conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
Alcaraz | |||||
R1 Hanfmann |
R2 Musetti |
1/4 Ruud |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
Tot Games | 19 | 16 | 18 | 53 | |
pts | 70-56 | 55-40 | 76-56 | 201-152 | |
Total points | 126 | 95 | 132 | 353 | |
Winners | 24 | 24 | 27 | 75 | |
%Winners | 34% | 44% | 36% | 37% | |
SERVE | |||||
Aces | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | |
Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
1st in | 30/47 | 36/53 | 38/55 | 104/155 | |
% 1st in | 64% | 68% | 69% | 67% | |
1st pts | 24/30 | 24/36 | 27/38 | 75/104 | |
% 1st pts | 80% | 67% | 71% | 72% | |
2nd pts | 8/17 | 11/17 | 11/17 | 30/51 | |
% 2nd pts | 47% | 65% | 65% | 59% | |
Breaks | |||||
Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |
Converted | 5/16 | 4/5 | 4/15 | 13/36 | |
Converted % | 31% | 80% | 27% | 36% | |
Conceded | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
Saved | 1/3 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 5 | |
Saved % | 33% | 100% | 50% | 61% | |
Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Sinner | |||||
R1 Evans |
R2 Nishioka |
1/4 Dimitrov |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-4 6-72 6-3 | 6-2 6-0 | 6-4 3-6 6-2 | ||
Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
Tot Games | 32 | 14 | 27 | 73 | |
pts | 104-96 | 60-34 | 94-88 | 258-218 | |
Total points | 200 | 94 | 182 | 476 | |
Winners | 37 | 19 | 34 | 90 | |
%Winners | 36% | 32% | 36% | 35% | |
SERVE | |||||
Aces | 11 | 8 | 3 | 22 | |
Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
1st in | 55/100 | 21/43 | 50/85 | 126/228 | |
% 1st in | 55% | 49% | 59% | 55% | |
1st pts | 37/55 | 19/21 | 34/50 | 90/126 | |
% 1st pts | 67% | 90% | 68% | 71% | |
2nd pts | 28/45 | 11/22 | 23/35 | 62/102 | |
% 2nd pts | 62% | 50% | 66% | 61% | |
Breaks | |||||
Won | 4 | 6 | 3 | 13 | |
Converted | 4/6 | 6/11 | 3/15 | 13/32 | |
Converted % | 67% | 55% | 20% | 41% | |
Conceded | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | |
Saved | 2/4 | 1/2 | 7/8 | 10 | |
Saved % | 50% | 50% | 88% | 63% | |
Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Head 2 Head
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Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-4 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Nicolas JarryJarry (6-1 6-75 6-3) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Ugo HumbertHumbert (6-4 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Casper RuudRuud (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (6-75 7-65 10-5) – See score progression
- Ivan Dodig/Austin KrajicekDodig/Austin Krajicek – Marcelo Melo/Alexander ZverevMelo/Alexander Zverev (7-65 4-6 11-9) – See score progression
- Karen Khachanov/Andrey RublevKhachanov/Andrey Rublev – Alexander Erler/Lucas MiedlerErler/Lucas Miedler (7-5 7-64) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Casper RuudRuud (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-4 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (7-9) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Jannik SinnerSinner (4-3) – H2H and prediction