Aryna Sabalenka and Cori Gauff will fight against each other in the final of the U.S. Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.84
Cori Gauff -> 1.97
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cori Gauff
This will be the 6th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Cori Gauff fight against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Gauff (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Sabalenka won 6-4 6-0 in the quarter in Indian Wells back in March 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Cori Gauff – Indian Wells 15-March-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-7 | 14-4 | 11-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Aryna reached the final after beating Maryna Zanevska 6-3 6-2, Jodie Anna Burrage 6-3 6-2, Clara Burel 6-1 6-1, Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-3, Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-4 and Madison Keys 0-6 7-61 7-65.
In the semifinal against Keys, The Belarussian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (0-6 7-61 7-65). During the match, Sabalenka scored 107 points vs Keys’s 101. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka scored 12 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 6 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 65% of her first serves in, winning 64% (41/64) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (19/34) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Keys 3 times after converting 30% of her break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 68% of her matches (313-150). 30-5 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed184-81 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she beat Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she defeated Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
Sabalenka has a compiled 50-10 win-loss record in 2023, 30-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Cori Gauff
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-8 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-16 | 40-9 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-23 | 23-16 | 10-4 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-16 | 16-10 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-8 | 7-5 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Gauff got to the final after beating Laura Siegemund 3-6 6-2 6-4, Mirra Andreeva 6-3 6-2, Elise Mertens 3-6 6-3 6-0, Caroline Wozniacki 6-3 3-6 6-1, Jelena Ostapenko 6-0 6-2 and Karolina Muchova 6-4 7-5.
In the semifinal, The American had a good straight sets win against Muchova (6-4 7-5). During the match Gauff scored 74 points vs Muchova’s 58. Cori was extremely aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Gauff scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Cori Gauff lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Gauff put 55% of her first serves in, winning 61% (20/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 67% (18/27) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Muchova 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Cori has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Auckland where she beat Rebeka Masarova in the final 6-1 6-1 and in Washington where she beat Maria Sakkari in the final 6-2 6-3 and in Cincinnati where she overcame Karolina Muchova in the final 6-3 6-4.
The American has an aggregate 44-13 win-loss record in 2023, 33-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 13 | 15 |
| Tot Games | 113 | 129 |
| Pts | 413-299 | 474-366 |
| Total Points | 712 | 840 |
| Winners | 160 | 162 |
| %Winners | 39% | 34% |
Both Sabalenka and Gauff played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Cori Gauff surrendered 3 sets. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Gauff (13 vs 15). Therefore, Sabalenka played 16 games less than Gauff. Sabalenka scored 160 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The American scored 162 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 32 | 24 |
| Avg per match | 5.3 | 4 |
| 1st in | 215/346 | 231/409 |
| %1st in | 62% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 160/215 | 162/231 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 68/131 | 93/178 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 52% |
Sabalenka blasted 32 aces (5.3 per match). Gauff blasted 24 aces (4 per match). Sabalenka won 74% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Gauff won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 27 | 31 |
| Converted | 27/49 | 31/54 |
| % Converted | 55% | 57% |
| Conceded | 23 | 38 |
| Saved | 11 | 23 |
| % Saved | 48% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 12 | 15 |
Aryna broke her opponents 27 times with a 55% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 12 times and she saved 48% of the break points that she conceded. Cori broke her opponents 31 times with a 57% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 15 times and she saved 61% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||||
| R1 Zanevska |
R2 Anna |
R3 Burel |
R4 Kasatkina |
1/4 Zheng |
1/2 Keys |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-1 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | 0-6 7-61 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 32 | 113 | |
| pts | 66-46 | 58-44 | 60-31 | 66-42 | 56-35 | 107-101 | 413-299 | |
| Total points | 112 | 102 | 91 | 108 | 91 | 208 | 712 | |
| Winners | 31 | 27 | 22 | 16 | 23 | 41 | 160 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% | 37% | 24% | 41% | 38% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | |
| 1st in | 43/58 | 29/57 | 30/48 | 23/40 | 26/45 | 64/98 | 215/346 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 51% | 63% | 58% | 58% | 65% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 31/43 | 27/29 | 22/30 | 16/23 | 23/26 | 41/64 | 160/215 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 93% | 73% | 70% | 88% | 64% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 2/15 | 13/28 | 12/18 | 9/17 | 13/19 | 19/34 | 68/131 | |
| % 2nd pts | 13% | 46% | 67% | 53% | 68% | 56% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | |
| Converted | 6/7 | 3/4 | 5/10 | 7/11 | 3/7 | 3/10 | 27/49 | |
| Converted % | 86% | 75% | 50% | 64% | 43% | 30% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 23 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 5/11 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 100% | 100% | 40% | – | 45% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | |
| Gauff | ||||||||
| R1 Siegemund |
R2 Andreeva |
R3 Mertens |
R4 Wozniacki |
1/4 Ostapenko |
1/2 Muchova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-2 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 6-0 | 6-3 3-6 6-1 | 6-0 6-2 | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 17 | 24 | 25 | 14 | 22 | 129 | |
| pts | 101-91 | 65-38 | 90-73 | 86-71 | 58-35 | 74-58 | 474-366 | |
| Total points | 192 | 103 | 163 | 157 | 93 | 132 | 840 | |
| Winners | 30 | 22 | 40 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 162 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 34% | 44% | 41% | 26% | 27% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 7 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 40/83 | 27/48 | 58/87 | 50/83 | 23/48 | 33/60 | 231/409 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 56% | 67% | 60% | 48% | 55% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 30/40 | 22/27 | 40/58 | 35/50 | 15/23 | 20/33 | 162/231 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 81% | 69% | 70% | 65% | 61% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/43 | 13/21 | 10/29 | 16/33 | 15/25 | 18/27 | 93/178 | |
| % 2nd pts | 49% | 62% | 34% | 48% | 60% | 67% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 31 | |
| Converted | 5/14 | 4/5 | 6/11 | 5/7 | 6/7 | 5/10 | 31/54 | |
| Converted % | 36% | 80% | 55% | 71% | 86% | 50% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 38 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 2/3 | 7/10 | 7/10 | 3/4 | 1/4 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 43% | 67% | 70% | 70% | 75% | 25% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | |
Head 2 Head
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