Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will square off in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 9:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.39
Madison Keys -> 3
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 4th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-4 in the quarter in at the Wimbledon back in July 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys – Wimbledon 12-July-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), the Belarussian got to the semifinal after beating Maryna Zanevska 6-3 6-2, Jodie Anna Burrage 6-3 6-2, Clara Burel 6-1 6-1, Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-3 and Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-4.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Zheng (6-1 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 56 points vs Zheng’s 35. The Belarussian was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was quite efficient on serve to win 88% (23/26) of her 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sabalenka broke Zheng 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to win 61% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 68% of her matches (312-150). 29-5 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate183-81 match record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Adelaide where she defeated Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
The Belarussian has a composed 49-10 win-loss record in 2023, 29-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, the American got to the semifinal after defeating Arantxa Rus 6-2 6-4, Yanina Wickmayer 6-1 6-2, Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2, Jessica Pegula 6-1 6-3 and Marketa Vondrousova 6-1 6-4.
In the quarter, Keys had a good straight sets win against Vondrousova (6-1 6-4). During the match Keys scored 69 points vs Vondrousova’s 54. The American was quite aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys struck 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 9 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 70% of her first serves in, winning 69% (37/54) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (11/23) on the 2nd serve. Keys was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Vondrousova 3 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Australia where she beat Lucia Bronzetti in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Eastbourne where she overcame Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-2 7-6(13).
Keys has a composed 33-11 win-loss record in 2023, 19-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2017. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 81 | 94 |
| Pts | 306-198 | 357-263 |
| Total Points | 504 | 620 |
| Winners | 119 | 166 |
| %Winners | 39% | 46% |
Both Sabalenka and Keys played 5 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys dropped 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Keys (10 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 13 games less than Keys. The Belarussian scored 119 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The American made 166 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 20 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 4 |
| 1st in | 151/248 | 221/306 |
| %1st in | 61% | 72% |
| 1st pts | 119/151 | 166/221 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 49/97 | 46/85 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 54% |
Sabalenka made 20 aces (4 per match). Keys recorded 20 aces (4 per match). Sabalenka won 79% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 75% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 24 | 19 |
| Converted | 24/39 | 19/41 |
| % Converted | 62% | 46% |
| Conceded | 12 | 18 |
| Saved | 6 | 16 |
| % Saved | 50% | 89% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 2 |
Aryna broke her opponents 24 times with a 62% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 19 times with a 46% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve twice and she saved 89% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R1 Zanevska |
R2 Anna |
R3 Burel |
R4 Kasatkina |
1/4 Zheng |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-1 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 81 | |
| pts | 66-46 | 58-44 | 60-31 | 66-42 | 56-35 | 306-198 | |
| Total points | 112 | 102 | 91 | 108 | 91 | 504 | |
| Winners | 31 | 27 | 22 | 16 | 23 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% | 37% | 24% | 41% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 43/58 | 29/57 | 30/48 | 23/40 | 26/45 | 151/248 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 51% | 63% | 58% | 58% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 31/43 | 27/29 | 22/30 | 16/23 | 23/26 | 119/151 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 93% | 73% | 70% | 88% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 2/15 | 13/28 | 12/18 | 9/17 | 13/19 | 49/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 13% | 46% | 67% | 53% | 68% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 24 | |
| Converted | 6/7 | 3/4 | 5/10 | 7/11 | 3/7 | 24/39 | |
| Converted % | 86% | 75% | 50% | 64% | 43% | 62% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 12 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 100% | 100% | 40% | – | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Keys | |||||||
| R1 Rus |
R2 Wickmayer |
R3 Samsonova |
R4 Pegula |
1/4 Vondrousova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 5-7 6-2 6-2 | 6-1 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 15 | 28 | 16 | 17 | 94 | |
| pts | 73-61 | 53-30 | 100-78 | 62-40 | 69-54 | 357-263 | |
| Total points | 134 | 83 | 178 | 102 | 123 | 620 | |
| Winners | 33 | 27 | 45 | 24 | 37 | 166 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 51% | 45% | 39% | 54% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 44/59 | 35/46 | 57/80 | 31/44 | 54/77 | 221/306 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 76% | 71% | 70% | 70% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 33/44 | 27/35 | 45/57 | 24/31 | 37/54 | 166/221 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 77% | 79% | 77% | 69% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/15 | 8/11 | 12/23 | 7/13 | 11/23 | 46/85 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 73% | 52% | 54% | 48% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | |
| Converted | 3/13 | 4/4 | 4/12 | 5/9 | 3/3 | 19/41 | |
| Converted % | 23% | 100% | 33% | 56% | 100% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 18 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 1/1 | 3/4 | 0/1 | 9/9 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 75% | 0% | 100% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Cori GauffGauff – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-2) – H2H and prediction
