Marketa Vondrousova and Madison Keys will clash against each other in the quarter of the U.S. Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 12:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.82
Marketa Vondrousova -> 1.99
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Marketa Vondrousova vs. Madison Keys
There is no head to head record between Marketa Vondrousova and Madison Keys since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Marketa Vondrousova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-5 | 4-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 16-11 | 5-4 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-18 | 19-12 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-7 | 11-3 | 2-1 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-19 | 21-10 | 4-4 | 8-2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9 (career-high), Marketa reached the quarter after beating Na-Lae Han 6-3 6-0, Martina Trevisan 6-2 6-2, Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-2 6-1 and Peyton Stearns 6-73 6-3 6-2.
In the 4th round against Stearns, Vondrousova recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-73 6-3 6-2). During the match, Vondrousova scored 100 points vs Stearns’s 83. Vondrousova was pretty aggressive to blast 47 winners.
Regarding the service games, Vondrousova fired 9 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Marketa Vondrousova lost the serve 4 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Vondrousova put 78% of her first serves in, winning 64% (47/74) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. Marketa broke Stearns 7 times after converting 58% of her break points (7/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Vondrousova has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 60% of the points she played.
Vondrousova has a great win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of her matches (260-104). 19-7 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Vondrousova has a compiled 96-47 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title at the Wimbledon where she beat Ons Jabeur in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Czech has an aggregate 40-12 win-loss record in 2023, 19-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-9 | 19-3 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, the American reached the quarter after defeating Arantxa Rus 6-2 6-4, Yanina Wickmayer 6-1 6-2, Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2 and Jessica Pegula 6-1 6-3.
In the 4th round, The American had a good straight sets win against Pegula (6-1 6-3). During the match Keys scored 62 points vs Pegula’s 40. Madison was quite aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys fired 3 aces and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Madison Keys was very efficient on serve to win 77% (24/31) of her 1st serve and 54% (7/13) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The American broke Pegula 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Australia where she overcame Lucia Bronzetti in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Eastbourne where she defeated Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-2 7-6(13).
Keys has a composed 32-11 win-loss record in 2023, 18-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2017. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Vondrousova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 76 | 77 |
| Pts | 286-194 | 288-209 |
| Total Points | 480 | 497 |
| Winners | 116 | 129 |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% |
Both Vondrousova and Keys played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Marketa Vondrousova lost 1 set, while Madison Keys conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Vondrousova and Keys have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Vondrousova played 1 game less than Keys. Vondrousova scored 116 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Madison scored 129 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Vondrousova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 4 |
| 1st in | 172/235 | 167/229 |
| %1st in | 73% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 116/172 | 129/167 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 31/63 | 35/62 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 56% |
Vondrousova struck 16 aces (4 per match). Keys scored 16 aces (4 per match). Vondrousova won 67% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 77% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Vondrousova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 25 | 16 |
| Converted | 25/41 | 16/38 |
| % Converted | 61% | 42% |
| Conceded | 22 | 9 |
| Saved | 13 | 7 |
| % Saved | 59% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 2 |
Marketa broke her opponents 25 times with a 61% conversion rate. Vondrousova conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 16 times with a 42% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve twice and she saved 78% of the break points that she conceded.
| Vondrousova | ||||||
| R1 Han |
R2 Trevisan |
R3 Alexandrova |
R4 Stearns |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-2 6-1 | 6-73 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 16 | 15 | 30 | 76 | |
| pts | 62-31 | 66-44 | 58-36 | 100-83 | 286-194 | |
| Total points | 93 | 110 | 94 | 183 | 480 | |
| Winners | 21 | 23 | 25 | 47 | 116 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 35% | 43% | 47% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 29/44 | 33/48 | 36/48 | 74/95 | 172/235 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 69% | 75% | 78% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 21/29 | 23/33 | 25/36 | 47/74 | 116/172 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 70% | 69% | 64% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/15 | 11/15 | 3/12 | 10/21 | 31/63 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 73% | 25% | 48% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 25 | |
| Converted | 7/11 | 5/10 | 6/8 | 7/12 | 25/41 | |
| Converted % | 64% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 61% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 4/5 | 0/2 | 4/8 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 80% | 0% | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | |
| Keys | ||||||
| R1 Rus |
R2 Wickmayer |
R3 Samsonova |
R4 Pegula |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 5-7 6-2 6-2 | 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 15 | 28 | 16 | 77 | |
| pts | 73-61 | 53-30 | 100-78 | 62-40 | 288-209 | |
| Total points | 134 | 83 | 178 | 102 | 497 | |
| Winners | 33 | 27 | 45 | 24 | 129 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 51% | 45% | 39% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 44/59 | 35/46 | 57/80 | 31/44 | 167/229 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 76% | 71% | 70% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 33/44 | 27/35 | 45/57 | 24/31 | 129/167 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 77% | 79% | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/15 | 8/11 | 12/23 | 7/13 | 35/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 73% | 52% | 54% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 3/13 | 4/4 | 4/12 | 5/9 | 16/38 | |
| Converted % | 23% | 100% | 33% | 56% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 1/1 | 3/4 | 0/1 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 75% | 0% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLWWLWLL
LLWWLWWWWL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Cori GauffGauff – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Borna CoricCoric (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Kevin AndersonAnderson (6-4 5-7 7-66) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Juan Martin Del PotroMartin Del Potro – Milos RaonicRaonic (5-7 7-61 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- John IsnerIsner – Hyeon ChungChung (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Steve Johnson/Sam QuerreyJohnson/Sam Querrey – Juan-Sebastian Cabal/Robert FarahCabal/Robert Farah (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Madison KeysKeys (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
