Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur will clash against each other in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 4:00 pm on LOUIS ARMSTRONG STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.444
Alex De Minaur -> 2.78
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex De Minaur
This will be the 7th time that Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur play each other. The head to head is 4-2 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, De Minaur won 7-6(7) 7-5 in the quarter in Toronto back in August 2023.
Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev – Toronto 11-August-2023
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-20 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-4 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Daniil got to the 4th round after defeating Attila Balazs 6-1 6-1 6-0, Christopher O Connell 6-2 6-2 6-76 6-2 and Sebastian Baez 6-2 6-2 7-66.
In the 3rd round, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Baez (6-2 6-2 7-66). During the match, Medvedev scored 115 points vs Baez’s 91. Medvedev was pretty aggressive to blast 53 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev scored 12 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve twice and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 62% of his first serves in, winning 72% (53/74) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (19/46) on the 2nd serve. Daniil broke Baez 6 times after converting 67% of his break points (6/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 59% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a great win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (475-189). 30-5 on hard in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has an aggregate 211-67 match record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he overcame Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he defeated Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Miami where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Rome where he beat Holger Rune in the final 7-5 7-5.
The Russian has a composed 52-11 win-loss record in 2023, 30-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47-18 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-6 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 13-10 | 6-5 | 0-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, the Australian reached the 4th round after defeating Timofey Skatov 6-2 3-6 6-1 7-5, Yibing Wu 6-1 6-2 6-1 and Nicolas Jarry 6-1 6-3 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Jarry (6-1 6-3 6-2). During the match De Minaur scored 86 points vs Jarry’s 54. The Australian was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, De Minaur struck 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Alex De Minaur was exceptionally effective on serve to win 85% (29/34) of his 1st serve and 63% (22/35) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Australian broke Jarry 6 times after converting 67% of his break points (6/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
De Minaur has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 59% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in Acapulco where he defeated Tommy Paul in the final 3-6 6-4 6-1.
Alex has an overall 36-18 win-loss record in 2023, 23-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 86 | 82 |
| Pts | 332-232 | 291-199 |
| Total Points | 564 | 490 |
| Winners | 132 | 95 |
| %Winners | 40% | 33% |
Both Medvedev and De Minaur played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev conceded 1 set, while Alex De Minaur conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and De Minaur have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Medvedev played 4 games more than De Minaur. The Russian scored 132 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Australian managed to score 95 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 32 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 10.7 | 3.7 |
| 1st in | 169/283 | 119/236 |
| %1st in | 60% | 50% |
| 1st pts | 132/169 | 95/119 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 55/114 | 70/117 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 60% |
Medvedev recorded 32 aces (10.7 per match). De Minaur struck 11 aces (3.7 per match). Medvedev won 78% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, De Minaur won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 22 | 21 |
| Converted | 22/43 | 21/41 |
| % Converted | 51% | 51% |
| Conceded | 17 | 8 |
| Saved | 13 | 4 |
| % Saved | 76% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 |
The Russian broke his opponents 22 times with a 51% conversion rate. Daniil dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. The Australian broke his opponents 21 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Australian conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||
| R1 Balazs |
R2 O |
R3 Baez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 6-0 | 6-2 6-2 6-76 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 37 | 29 | 86 | |
| pts | 81-36 | 136-105 | 115-91 | 332-232 | |
| Total points | 117 | 241 | 206 | 564 | |
| Winners | 31 | 48 | 53 | 132 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 35% | 46% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 8 | 12 | 12 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 10 | 7 | 20 | |
| 1st in | 36/54 | 59/109 | 74/120 | 169/283 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 54% | 62% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 31/36 | 48/59 | 53/74 | 132/169 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 81% | 72% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 27/50 | 19/46 | 55/114 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 41% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 8 | 6 | 22 | |
| Converted | 8/14 | 8/20 | 6/9 | 22/43 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 40% | 67% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 5 | 12 | 17 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 3/5 | 10/12 | 13 | |
| Saved % | – | 60% | 83% | 48% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| De Minaur | |||||
| R1 Skatov |
R2 Wu |
R3 Jarry |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 3-6 6-1 7-5 | 6-1 6-2 6-1 | 6-1 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 36 | 22 | 24 | 82 | |
| pts | 117-93 | 88-52 | 86-54 | 291-199 | |
| Total points | 210 | 140 | 140 | 490 | |
| Winners | 42 | 24 | 29 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 27% | 34% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 56/106 | 29/61 | 34/69 | 119/236 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 48% | 49% | 50% | |
| 1st pts | 42/56 | 24/29 | 29/34 | 95/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 83% | 85% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 26/50 | 22/32 | 22/35 | 70/117 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 69% | 63% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 7 | 6 | 21 | |
| Converted | 8/14 | 7/18 | 6/9 | 21/41 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 39% | 67% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Saved | 2/6 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 100% | 100% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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LLLWWWLWWW Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (4-2) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jannik SinnerSinner (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Borna GojoGojo – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Rinky HijikataHijikata – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Andrey RublevRublev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
