Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys will clash against each other in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 12:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.57
Madison Keys -> 2.41

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 2^nd time that Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Pegula won 6-4 7-5 in the quarter in San Diego back in 2022.

Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys – San Diego 14-October-2022

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 3 (career-high), Pegula reached the 4^th round after beating Camila Giorgi 6-2 6-2, Patricia Maria Tig 6-3 6-1 and Elina Svitolina 6-4 4-6 6-2

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In the 3^rd round, The American defeated Svitolina (6-4 4-6 6-2). During the match, Pegula scored 89 points vs Svitolina’s 83. Pegula was very aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Regarding the service games, Pegula made 9 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Jessica Pegula was quite effective on serve to win 75% (40/53) of her 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jessica broke Svitolina 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points she played.

Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (286-162). 32-8 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has an aggregate 173-86 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Australia where she beat Martina Trevisan in the final 6-4 6-2 and in Montreal where she overcame Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-0.

Pegula has an overall 46-14 win-loss record in 2023, 32-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 17, the American reached the 4^th round after beating Arantxa Rus 6-2 6-4, Yanina Wickmayer 6-1 6-2 and Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2.

In the 3^rd round against Samsonova, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-2 6-2). During the match Keys scored 100 points vs Samsonova’s 78. Madison was pretty aggressive to blast 45 winners.

About the serving games, Keys blasted 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Madison Keys was extremely efficient on serve to win 79% (45/57) of her 1st serve and 52% (12/23) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Madison broke Samsonova 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where she overcame Lucia Bronzetti in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Eastbourne where she overcame Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-2 7-6(13).

Keys has a compiled 31-11 win-loss record in 2023, 17-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2017. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Keys
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	7
Tot Games	60	61
Pts	224-173	226-169
Total Points	397	395
Winners	85	105
%Winners	38%	46%

Both Pegula and Keys played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula conceded 1 set, while Madison Keys lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Keys have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Pegula played 1 game less than Keys. Jessica scored 85 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Keys scored 105 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Keys
Aces	22	13
Avg per match	7.3	4.3
1st in	106/177	136/185
%1st in	60%	74%
1st pts	85/106	105/136
%1st pts	80%	77%
2nd pts	36/71	28/49
%2nd pts	51%	57%

Pegula scored 22 aces (7.3 per match). Keys managed to score 13 aces (4.3 per match). Pegula won 80% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Keys
Won	13	11
Converted	13/34	11/29
% Converted	38%	38%
Conceded	7	8
Saved	4	7
% Saved	57%	88%
Times Broken	3	1

Pegula broke her opponents 13 times with a 38% conversion rate. Jessica lost her serve 3 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 11 times with a 38% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve once and she saved 88% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
	R1 Giorgi	R2 Maria Tig	R3 Svitolina	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	6-3 6-1	6-4 4-6 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	16	16	28	60
pts	73-51	62-39	89-83	224-173
Total points	124	101	172	397
Winners	25	20	40	85
%Winners	34%	32%	45%	38%
SERVE
Aces	8	5	9	22
Double Faults	2	3	2	7
1st in	28/46	25/49	53/82	106/177
% 1st in	61%	51%	65%	60%
1st pts	25/28	20/25	40/53	85/106
% 1st pts	89%	80%	75%	80%
2nd pts	10/18	10/24	16/29	36/71
% 2nd pts	56%	42%	55%	51%
Breaks
Won	4	6	3	13
Converted	4/15	6/11	3/8	13/34
Converted %	27%	55%	38%	38%
Conceded	1	3	3	7
Saved	1/1	1/3	2/3	4
Saved %	100%	33%	67%	67%
Times Broken	0	2	1	3

Keys
	R1 Rus	R2 Wickmayer	R3 Samsonova	Total
Score	6-2 6-4	6-1 6-2	5-7 6-2 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	18	15	28	61
pts	73-61	53-30	100-78	226-169
Total points	134	83	178	395
Winners	33	27	45	105
%Winners	45%	51%	45%	46%
SERVE
Aces	5	4	4	13
Double Faults	2	1	1	4
1st in	44/59	35/46	57/80	136/185
% 1st in	75%	76%	71%	74%
1st pts	33/44	27/35	45/57	105/136
% 1st pts	75%	77%	79%	77%
2nd pts	8/15	8/11	12/23	28/49
% 2nd pts	53%	73%	52%	57%
Breaks
Won	3	4	4	11
Converted	3/13	4/4	4/12	11/29
Converted %	23%	100%	33%	38%
Conceded	3	1	4	8
Saved	3/3	1/1	3/4	7
Saved %	100%	100%	75%	92%
Times Broken	0	0	1	1

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Xinyu WangWang (6-3 5-7 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Milos RaonicRaonic – Jeremy ChardyChardy (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Borna CoricCoric – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-6² 4-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Fernando VerdascoVerdasco (6-0 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Hyeon ChungChung – Joao SousaSousa (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• John IsnerIsner – Marin CilicCilic (7-6⁰ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Kevin AndersonAnderson – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (7-6³ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Juan Martin Del PotroMartin Del Potro – Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Cori GauffGauff (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Belinda BencicBencic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Peyton StearnsStearns – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Jessica PegulaPegula (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-4) – H2H and prediction