Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys will clash against each other in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 12:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.57
Madison Keys -> 2.41
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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 2nd time that Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Pegula won 6-4 7-5 in the quarter in San Diego back in 2022.
Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys – San Diego 14-October-2022
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3 (career-high), Pegula reached the 4th round after beating Camila Giorgi 6-2 6-2, Patricia Maria Tig 6-3 6-1 and Elina Svitolina 6-4 4-6 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The American defeated Svitolina (6-4 4-6 6-2). During the match, Pegula scored 89 points vs Svitolina’s 83. Pegula was very aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Regarding the service games, Pegula made 9 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Jessica Pegula was quite effective on serve to win 75% (40/53) of her 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jessica broke Svitolina 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (286-162). 32-8 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has an aggregate 173-86 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Australia where she beat Martina Trevisan in the final 6-4 6-2 and in Montreal where she overcame Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-0.
Pegula has an overall 46-14 win-loss record in 2023, 32-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, the American reached the 4th round after beating Arantxa Rus 6-2 6-4, Yanina Wickmayer 6-1 6-2 and Liudmila Samsonova 5-7 6-2 6-2.
In the 3rd round against Samsonova, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-2 6-2). During the match Keys scored 100 points vs Samsonova’s 78. Madison was pretty aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Keys blasted 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Madison Keys was extremely efficient on serve to win 79% (45/57) of her 1st serve and 52% (12/23) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Madison broke Samsonova 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where she overcame Lucia Bronzetti in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Eastbourne where she overcame Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-2 7-6(13).
Keys has a compiled 31-11 win-loss record in 2023, 17-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2017. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 60 | 61 |
| Pts | 224-173 | 226-169 |
| Total Points | 397 | 395 |
| Winners | 85 | 105 |
| %Winners | 38% | 46% |
Both Pegula and Keys played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula conceded 1 set, while Madison Keys lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Keys have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Pegula played 1 game less than Keys. Jessica scored 85 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Keys scored 105 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 7.3 | 4.3 |
| 1st in | 106/177 | 136/185 |
| %1st in | 60% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 85/106 | 105/136 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 36/71 | 28/49 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 57% |
Pegula scored 22 aces (7.3 per match). Keys managed to score 13 aces (4.3 per match). Pegula won 80% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 77% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 11 |
| Converted | 13/34 | 11/29 |
| % Converted | 38% | 38% |
| Conceded | 7 | 8 |
| Saved | 4 | 7 |
| % Saved | 57% | 88% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 |
Pegula broke her opponents 13 times with a 38% conversion rate. Jessica lost her serve 3 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 11 times with a 38% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve once and she saved 88% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | |||||
| R1 Giorgi |
R2 Maria Tig |
R3 Svitolina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 6-1 | 6-4 4-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 16 | 28 | 60 | |
| pts | 73-51 | 62-39 | 89-83 | 224-173 | |
| Total points | 124 | 101 | 172 | 397 | |
| Winners | 25 | 20 | 40 | 85 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 32% | 45% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 8 | 5 | 9 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 28/46 | 25/49 | 53/82 | 106/177 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 51% | 65% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 25/28 | 20/25 | 40/53 | 85/106 | |
| % 1st pts | 89% | 80% | 75% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 10/24 | 16/29 | 36/71 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 42% | 55% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 3 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/15 | 6/11 | 3/8 | 13/34 | |
| Converted % | 27% | 55% | 38% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1/3 | 2/3 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 33% | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Keys | |||||
| R1 Rus |
R2 Wickmayer |
R3 Samsonova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 5-7 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 15 | 28 | 61 | |
| pts | 73-61 | 53-30 | 100-78 | 226-169 | |
| Total points | 134 | 83 | 178 | 395 | |
| Winners | 33 | 27 | 45 | 105 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 51% | 45% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 44/59 | 35/46 | 57/80 | 136/185 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 76% | 71% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 33/44 | 27/35 | 45/57 | 105/136 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 77% | 79% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/15 | 8/11 | 12/23 | 28/49 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 73% | 52% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/13 | 4/4 | 4/12 | 11/29 | |
| Converted % | 23% | 100% | 33% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 1/1 | 3/4 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 75% | 92% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Cori GauffGauff (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Belinda BencicBencic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Peyton StearnsStearns – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Jessica PegulaPegula (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-4) – H2H and prediction
