Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi will play each other in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 2:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.007
Matteo Arnaldi -> 16.75

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi

There is no head to head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Carlos Alcaraz

Currently world no. 1 Carlos reached the 4^th round after beating Dominik Koepfer 6-2 3-2 ret., Lloyd Harris 6-3 6-1 7-6⁴ and Daniel Evans 6-2 6-3 4-6 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Evans (6-2 6-3 4-6 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 132 points vs Evans’s 106. Alcaraz was pretty aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz bagged 6 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was very effective on serve to win 73% (44/60) of his 1st serve and 70% (32/46) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Alcaraz broke Evans 6 times after converting 35% of his break points (6/17).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz has lost 1 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 6 years having won 80% of his matches (224-57). 19-3 on hard in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has an overall68-17 match record in the last 6 years on hard.

His best result of the year was conquering the title in Buenos Aires where he overcame Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Indian Wells where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Barcelona where he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where he overcame Jan-Lennard Struff in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and in London where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-4 and at the Wimbledon where he defeated Novak Djokovic in the final 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4.

Carlos has an aggregate 56-6 win-loss record in 2023, 19-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 61 (career-high), Arnaldi got to the 4^th round after beating Jason Murray Kubler 6-3 1-0 ret., Arthur Fils 3-6 7-5 7-6⁵ 5-7 6-4 and Cameron Norrie 6-3 6-4 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, Matteo had a good straight sets win against Norrie (6-3 6-4 6-3). During the match Arnaldi scored 96 points vs Norrie’s 73. Arnaldi was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaldi managed to score 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 65% of his first serves in, winning 68% (41/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 63% (20/32) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Norrie 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Matteo has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was conquering the title the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he overcame Raul Brancaccio in the final 6-1 6-2 and the Murcia Challenger where he overcame Borna Gojo in the final 6-4 7-6(4) and the Heilbronn Challenger where he beat Facundo Diaz Acosta in the final 7-6(4) 6-1.

Matteo has a compiled 42-20 win-loss record in 2023, 16-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Arnaldi
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	10	11
Tot Games	78	94
Pts	294-228	302-265
Total Points	522	567
Winners	110	131
%Winners	37%	43%

Both Alcaraz and Arnaldi played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set, while Matteo Arnaldi conceded 2 sets. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Arnaldi (10 vs 11). Therefore, Alcaraz played 16 games less than Arnaldi. Carlos scored 110 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo scored 131 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Arnaldi
Aces	14	20
Avg per match	4.7	6.7
1st in	151/243	185/283
%1st in	62%	65%
1st pts	110/151	131/185
%1st pts	73%	71%
2nd pts	61/92	58/98
%2nd pts	66%	59%

Alcaraz bagged 14 aces (4.7 per match). Arnaldi made 20 aces (6.7 per match). Alcaraz won 73% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Arnaldi
Won	14	11
Converted	14/38	11/19
% Converted	37%	58%
Conceded	19	14
Saved	16	9
% Saved	84%	64%
Times Broken	3	5

The Spaniard broke his opponents 14 times with a 37% conversion rate. Alcaraz lost his serve 3 times and he saved 84% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 11 times with a 58% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Koepfer	R2 Lloyd	R3 Evans	Total
Score	6-2 3-2 ret.	6-3 6-1 7-64	6-2 6-3 4-6 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	4	9
Tot Games	13	29	36	78
pts	53-35	109-87	132-106	294-228
Total points	88	196	238	522
Winners	20	46	44	110
%Winners	38%	42%	33%	37%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	6	14
Double Faults	0	1	4	5
1st in	24/33	67/104	60/106	151/243
% 1st in	73%	64%	57%	62%
1st pts	20/24	46/67	44/60	110/151
% 1st pts	83%	69%	73%	73%
2nd pts	6/9	23/37	32/46	61/92
% 2nd pts	67%	62%	70%	66%
Breaks
Won	3	5	6	14
Converted	3/11	5/10	6/17	14/38
Converted %	27%	50%	35%	37%
Conceded	2	10	7	19
Saved	2/2	9/10	5/7	16
Saved %	100%	90%	71%	87%
Times Broken	0	1	2	3

Arnaldi
	R1 Murray Kubler	R2 Fils	R3 Norrie	Total
Score	6-3 1-0 ret.	3-6 7-5 7-65 5-7 6-4	6-3 6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	5	3	10
Tot Games	10	56	28	94
pts	36-23	170-169	96-73	302-265
Total points	59	339	169	567
Winners	18	72	41	131
%Winners	50%	42%	43%	43%
SERVE
Aces	7	8	5	20
Double Faults	1	5	1	7
1st in	22/29	103/162	60/92	185/283
% 1st in	76%	64%	65%	65%
1st pts	18/22	72/103	41/60	131/185
% 1st pts	82%	70%	68%	71%
2nd pts	4/7	34/59	20/32	58/98
% 2nd pts	57%	58%	63%	59%
Breaks
Won	2	4	5	11
Converted	2/2	4/11	5/6	11/19
Converted %	100%	36%	83%	58%
Conceded	0	9	5	14
Saved	0/0	5/9	4/5	9
Saved %	–	56%	80%	45%
Times Broken	0	4	1	5

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Pierre-Hugues Herbert/Nicolas MahutHerbert/Nicolas Mahut – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (7-6⁰ 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Nicolas JarryJarry (6-1 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-7² 7-6⁸ 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-2 6-2 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (3-6 6-3 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Daniel EvansEvans (6-2 6-3 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-3 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Michael MmohMmoh (6-4 6-2 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (6-3 2-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (4-6 6-2 6-3 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Jakub MensikMensik (6-1 6-2 6-0) – See score progression
• Borna GojoGojo – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-4 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Laslo DjereDjere (4-6 4-6 6-1 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Ben SheltonShelton – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (6-4 3-6 6-2 6-0) – See score progression
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Dominic StrickerStricker – Benjamin BonziBonzi (2-6 7-5 7-6⁴ 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-1 6-0 3-6 6-3) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (4-2) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Jannik SinnerSinner (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Borna GojoGojo – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Andrey RublevRublev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – (0-0) – H2H and prediction