Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Baez will face off in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 9:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.063
Sebastian Baez -> 8.9
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Sebastian Baez
There is no head to head record between Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Baez since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-23 | 20-12 | 6-4 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Medvedev got to the 3rd round after defeating Attila Balazs 6-1 6-1 6-0 and Christopher O Connell 6-2 6-2 6-76 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Medvedev had a good straight sets win against O Connell (6-2 6-2 6-76 6-2). During the match, Medvedev scored 136 points vs O Connell’s 105. Daniil was very aggressive to blast 48 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev managed to score 12 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was quite efficient on serve to win 81% (48/59) of his 1st serve and 54% (27/50) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Medvedev broke O Connell 8 times after converting 40% of his break points (8/20).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 61% of the points he played.
Medvedev has an impressive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (474-189). 29-5 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an overall 210-67 match record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he overcame Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he overcame Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Miami where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Rome where he beat Holger Rune in the final 7-5 7-5.
The Russian has a compiled 51-11 win-loss record in 2023, 29-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Sebastian Baez
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-27 | 3-9 | 17-14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-28 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 32, Baez reached the 3rd round after defeating Borna Coric 7-5 7-5 6-1 and Felipe Meligeni Alves 6-76 6-4 6-4 ret..
In the 2nd round against Meligeni Alves, the Argentine had a free pass after Meligeni Alves retired on a 6-76 6-4 6-4 . scoreline.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Cordoba where he overcame Federico Coria in the final 6-1 3-6 6-3 and in Kitzbuhel where he beat Dominic Thiem in the final 6-3 6-1 and in Salem where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 6-4 6-3.
Baez has an aggregate 30-20 win-loss record in 2023, 8-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 57 | 64 |
| Pts | 217-141 | 223-197 |
| Total Points | 358 | 420 |
| Winners | 79 | 115 |
| %Winners | 36% | 52% |
Both Medvedev and Baez played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev lost 1 set, while Sebastian Baez conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Baez have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Medvedev played 7 games less than Baez. Medvedev scored 79 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Baez scored 115 winners (52%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 10 | 5 |
| 1st in | 95/163 | 168/227 |
| %1st in | 58% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 79/95 | 115/168 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 36/68 | 34/59 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 58% |
Medvedev scored 20 aces (10 per match). Baez struck 10 aces (5 per match). Medvedev won 83% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Baez won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 9 |
| Converted | 16/34 | 9/18 |
| % Converted | 47% | 50% |
| Conceded | 5 | 20 |
| Saved | 3 | 17 |
| % Saved | 60% | 85% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
Medvedev broke his opponents 16 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Russian lost his serve twice and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. The Argentine broke his opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. Baez conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | ||||
| R1 Balazs |
R2 O |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 6-0 | 6-2 6-2 6-76 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 37 | 57 | |
| pts | 81-36 | 136-105 | 217-141 | |
| Total points | 117 | 241 | 358 | |
| Winners | 31 | 48 | 79 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 35% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 8 | 12 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 10 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 36/54 | 59/109 | 95/163 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 54% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 31/36 | 48/59 | 79/95 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 81% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 27/50 | 36/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 8 | 8 | 16 | |
| Converted | 8/14 | 8/20 | 16/34 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 40% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 3/5 | 3 | |
| Saved % | – | 60% | 30% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Baez | ||||
| R1 Coric |
R2 Meligeni |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 7-5 6-1 | 6-76 6-4 6-4 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 33 | 64 | |
| pts | 109-91 | 114-106 | 223-197 | |
| Total points | 200 | 220 | 420 | |
| Winners | 57 | 58 | 115 | |
| %Winners | 52% | 51% | 52% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 81/112 | 87/115 | 168/227 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 76% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 57/81 | 58/87 | 115/168 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 67% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/31 | 18/28 | 34/59 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 64% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 4/8 | 9/18 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 13 | 20 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 11/13 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 85% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
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