
Sho Shimabukuro and Gauthier Onclin will clash against each other in the qualifications of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 12:00 pm on Court 16. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sho Shimabukuro who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sho Shimabukuro is the pick to win this match.
Sho Shimabukuro -> 1.68
Gauthier Onclin -> 2.12
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Prediction and head to head Sho Shimabukuro vs. Gauthier Onclin
This will be the 2nd time that Sho Shimabukuro and Gauthier Onclin square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Shimabukuro (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Shimabukuro won 6-3 6-7(5) 7-5 in the qualifications in the Ilkley Challenger back in June 2023.
Sho Shimabukuro
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34-23 | 29-19 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 30-28 | 21-17 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-26 | 19-17 | 7-1 | 9-4 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-25 | 38-20 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 31-20 | 28-18 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 159, the Japanese reached the qualifications after beating Jan Choinski 6-3 6-3.
In the qualifications, Shimabukuro had a good straight sets win against Choinski (6-3 6-3). During the match, Shimabukuro scored 72 points vs Choinski’s 60. Shimabukuro was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Shimabukuro fired 2 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Sho Shimabukuro was quite efficient on serve to win 77% (23/30) of his 1st serve and 57% (25/44) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Shimabukuro broke Choinski 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Shimabukuro has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 64% of his matches (200-111). 16-13 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Shimabukuro has an overall154-82 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title the Nonthaburi 3 Challenger where he overcame Arthur Cazaux in the final 6-2 7-5 and the Tunis Challenger where he overcame Geoffrey Blancaneaux in the final 6-4 6-4.
Shimabukuro has a composed 32-19 win-loss record in 2023, 16-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
The Japanese has never competed in this tournament before.
Gauthier Onclin
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-29 | 8-9 | 18-11 | 1-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-27 | 27-11 | 19-13 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-25 | 1-2 | 15-10 | 23-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 54-26 | 10-8 | 36-15 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-23 | 18-6 | 10-13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4-2 |
Ranked no. 205, Onclin reached the qualifications after beating Marco Trungelliti 6-3 6-4.
In the qualifications, Onclin had a good straight sets win against Trungelliti (6-3 6-4). During the match Onclin scored 67 points vs Trungelliti’s 56. The Belgian was quite aggressive to blast 14 winners.
Talking about serving, Onclin bagged 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Gauthier Onclin lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Onclin put 53% of his first serves in, winning 48% (14/29) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (17/26) on the 2nd serve. Gauthier broke Trungelliti 6 times after converting 67% of his break points (6/9).
Gauthier’s best result of the year was getting to the final in M15 Bressuire.
Onclin has an overall 36-18 win-loss record in 2023, 1-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shimabukuro | Onclin |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 19 |
| Pts | 72-60 | 67-56 |
| Total Points | 132 | 123 |
| Winners | 23 | 14 |
| %Winners | 32% | 21% |
Both Shimabukuro and Onclin played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Shimabukuro and Onclin have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Shimabukuro played 1 game less than Onclin. The Japanese scored 23 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, Onclin bagged 14 winners (21%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shimabukuro | Onclin |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 2 |
| 1st in | 30/74 | 29/55 |
| %1st in | 41% | 53% |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 14/29 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 48% |
| 2nd pts | 25/44 | 17/26 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 65% |
Shimabukuro made 2 aces . Onclin blasted 2 aces . Shimabukuro won 77% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Onclin won 48% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shimabukuro | Onclin |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 6 |
| Converted | 3/8 | 6/9 |
| % Converted | 38% | 67% |
| Conceded | 9 | 6 |
| Saved | 9 | 3 |
| % Saved | 100% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
The Japanese broke his opponent 3 times with a 38% conversion rate. Shimabukuro pretty solid on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 9 break points. Gauthier broke his opponent 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Belgian conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Shimabukuro | |||
| Q1 Choinski |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 72-60 | 72-60 | |
| Total points | 132 | 132 | |
| Winners | 23 | 23 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 30/74 | 30/74 | |
| % 1st in | 41% | 41% | |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 23/30 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/44 | 25/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 3/8 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 9 | |
| Saved | 9/9 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Onclin | |||
| Q1 Trungelliti |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 67-56 | 67-56 | |
| Total points | 123 | 123 | |
| Winners | 14 | 14 | |
| %Winners | 21% | 21% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 29/55 | 29/55 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 14/29 | 14/29 | |
| % 1st pts | 48% | 48% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/26 | 17/26 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 65% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 6/9 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
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