Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will fight against each other in the final of the Western & Southern Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Novak Djokovic who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Novak Djokovic is the pick to win this match.
Novak Djokovic -> 1.66
Carlos Alcaraz -> 2.22
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic
This will be the 4th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Alcaraz won 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4 in the final in at the Wimbledon back in July 2023.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic – Wimbledon 16-July-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-4 | 13-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Alcaraz got to the final after beating Jordan Thompson 7-5 4-6 6-3, Tommy Paul 7-66 6-70 6-3, Max Purcell 4-6 6-3 6-4 and Hubert Hurkacz 2-6 7-64 6-3.
In the semifinal against Hurkacz, Carlos recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 7-64 6-3).During the match, Alcaraz scored less points (2) than Hurkacz. In fact, the world no. 1 won 98 points vs Hurkacz’s. That means that Alcaraz was more focused during the important points. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz recorded 2 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 66% of his first serves in, winning 68% (41/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (20/31) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Hurkacz once after converting 9% of his break points (1/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos has dropped 4 set in this event to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 6 years having won 80% of his matches (221-56). 16-2 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a composed65-16 win-loss record in the last 6 years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Buenos Aires where he defeated Cameron Norrie in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Indian Wells where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Barcelona where he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where he overcame Jan-Lennard Struff in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and in London where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 6-4 and at the Wimbledon where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4.
Alcaraz has an aggregate 53-5 win-loss record in 2023, 16-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Novak Djokovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11-4 | 8-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-7 | 19-3 | 18-3 | 11-1 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-5 | 26-1 | 11-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Djokovic reached the final after beating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-4 ret., Gael Monfils 6-3 6-2, Taylor Fritz 6-0 6-4 and Alexander Zverev 7-65 7-5.
In the semifinal, The Serbian had a good straight sets win against Zverev (7-65 7-5). During the match Djokovic scored 83 points vs Zverev’s 77. The Serbian was pretty aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Djokovic blasted 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Novak Djokovic was exceptionally effective on serve to win 80% (41/51) of his 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Djokovic broke Zverev twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Serbian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Adelaide where he beat Sebastian Korda in the final 6-7(8) 7-6(3) 6-4 and at the Australian Open where he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 7-6(5) and at the French Open where he beat Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(1) 6-3 7-5.
Djokovic has an aggregate 37-5 win-loss record in 2023, 19-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, he won this tournament twice in 2018 and 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 125 | 68 |
| Pts | 442-414 | 232-169 |
| Total Points | 856 | 401 |
| Winners | 155 | 94 |
| %Winners | 35% | 41% |
Both Alcaraz and Djokovic played 4 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz conceded 4 sets while Novak Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 4 sets more than Djokovic (12 vs 8). Therefore, Alcaraz played 57 games more than Djokovic. Carlos scored 155 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Djokovic made 94 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 17 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 226/369 | 116/195 |
| %1st in | 61% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 155/226 | 94/116 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 85/143 | 48/79 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 61% |
Alcaraz managed to score 17 aces (4.3 per match). Djokovic blasted 10 aces (2.5 per match). Alcaraz won 69% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Djokovic won 81% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 13 |
| Converted | 15/60 | 13/19 |
| % Converted | 25% | 68% |
| Conceded | 20 | 10 |
| Saved | 9 | 6 |
| % Saved | 45% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 4 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 15 times with a 25% conversion rate. The Spaniard dropped his serve 11 times and he saved 45% of the break points that he conceded. Novak broke his opponents 13 times with a 68% conversion rate. Novak conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R2 Thompson |
R3 Paul |
1/4 Purcell |
1/2 Hurkacz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 4-6 6-3 | 7-66 6-70 6-3 | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | 2-6 7-64 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 35 | 29 | 30 | 125 | |
| pts | 110-102 | 133-122 | 101-90 | 98-100 | 442-414 | |
| Total points | 212 | 255 | 191 | 198 | 856 | |
| Winners | 31 | 48 | 35 | 41 | 155 | |
| %Winners | 28% | 36% | 35% | 42% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 17 | |
| 1st in | 47/86 | 67/103 | 52/89 | 60/91 | 226/369 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 65% | 58% | 66% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 31/47 | 48/67 | 35/52 | 41/60 | 155/226 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 72% | 67% | 68% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/39 | 17/36 | 23/37 | 20/31 | 85/143 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 47% | 62% | 65% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/17 | 6/23 | 3/9 | 1/11 | 15/60 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 26% | 33% | 9% | 25% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 2/6 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 33% | 33% | 50% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Djokovic | ||||||
| R2 Davidovich Fokina |
R3 Monfils |
1/4 Fritz |
1/2 Zverev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 ret. | 6-3 6-2 | 6-0 6-4 | 7-65 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 10 | 17 | 16 | 25 | 68 | |
| pts | 34-22 | 62-39 | 53-31 | 83-77 | 232-169 | |
| Total points | 56 | 101 | 84 | 160 | 401 | |
| Winners | 10 | 22 | 21 | 41 | 94 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 35% | 40% | 49% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 12/29 | 27/46 | 26/40 | 51/80 | 116/195 | |
| % 1st in | 41% | 59% | 65% | 64% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 10/12 | 22/27 | 21/26 | 41/51 | 94/116 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 81% | 81% | 80% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/17 | 12/19 | 9/14 | 16/29 | 48/79 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 63% | 64% | 55% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 4/5 | 5/5 | 2/6 | 13/19 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 80% | 100% | 33% | 68% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 3/4 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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