Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Western & Southern Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.48
Karolina Muchova -> 2.65
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Karolina Muchova
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova fight against each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Muchova won 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5 in the semifinal in at the French Open back in June 2023.
Highlights Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka – French Open 08-June-2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4-tdFOVebQ
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-5 | 14-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), the Belarussian reached the semifinal after beating Ann Li 7-5 2-6 6-4, Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-3 and Ons Jabeur 7-5 6-3.
In the quarter, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Jabeur (7-5 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 74 points vs Jabeur’s 59. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka managed to score 9 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 62% of her first serves in, winning 65% (28/43) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (11/26) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Jabeur 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has dropped 1 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 67% of her matches (307-149). 24-4 on hard in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a composed178-80 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
The Belarussian has an overall 44-9 win-loss record in 2023, 24-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Karolina Muchova
33 - 11win/loss
8
8
LWWWWWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-8 | 6-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2019 | 38-14 | 25-9 | 6-2 | 3-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, Muchova got to the semifinal after defeating Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-73 6-1 6-4, Petra Martic 6-3 3-6 6-3, Maria Sakkari 6-3 2-6 6-3 and Marie Bouzkova 3-0 ret..
In the quarter against Bouzkova, Muchova had a free pass after Bouzkova retired on a 3-0 . scoreline.
Muchova’s best result of the season was reaching the final in at the French Open .
The Czech has an overall 32-11 win-loss record in 2023, 22-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 69 | 86 |
| Pts | 233-196 | 298-260 |
| Total Points | 429 | 558 |
| Winners | 84 | 121 |
| %Winners | 36% | 41% |
Sabalenka played 3 matches while Muchova competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 1 set, while Karolina Muchova conceded 3 sets. Sabalenka has played 4 set(s) less than Muchova (7 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 17 games less than Muchova. Sabalenka scored 84 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Karolina bagged 121 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 123/207 | 174/266 |
| %1st in | 59% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 84/123 | 121/174 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 44/84 | 50/92 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 54% |
Sabalenka bagged 15 aces (5 per match). Muchova struck 10 aces (2.5 per match). Sabalenka won 68% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 70% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 15 |
| Converted | 15/27 | 15/34 |
| % Converted | 56% | 44% |
| Conceded | 20 | 20 |
| Saved | 10 | 12 |
| % Saved | 50% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 8 |
Aryna broke her opponents 15 times with a 56% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 10 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Muchova broke her opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. Muchova conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Li |
R3 Kasatkina |
1/4 Jabeur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 2-6 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 18 | 21 | 69 | |
| pts | 93-92 | 66-45 | 74-59 | 233-196 | |
| Total points | 185 | 111 | 133 | 429 | |
| Winners | 32 | 24 | 28 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 36% | 38% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 2 | 6 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 47/90 | 33/48 | 43/69 | 123/207 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 69% | 62% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 32/47 | 24/33 | 28/43 | 84/123 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 73% | 65% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/43 | 9/15 | 11/26 | 44/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 60% | 42% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 5/9 | 6/10 | 15/27 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 56% | 60% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 | 9 | 20 | |
| Saved | 1/5 | 4/6 | 5/9 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 20% | 67% | 56% | 48% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| Muchova | ||||||
| R1 Haddad Maia |
R2 Martic |
R3 Sakkari |
1/4 Bouzkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-73 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 3-6 6-3 | 6-3 2-6 6-3 | 3-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 27 | 26 | 3 | 86 | |
| pts | 105-92 | 99-90 | 82-76 | 12-2 | 298-260 | |
| Total points | 197 | 189 | 158 | 14 | 558 | |
| Winners | 38 | 35 | 41 | 7 | 121 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 35% | 50% | 58% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 55/85 | 55/96 | 55/75 | 9/10 | 174/266 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 57% | 73% | 90% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 38/55 | 35/55 | 41/55 | 7/9 | 121/174 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 64% | 75% | 78% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/30 | 26/41 | 6/20 | 1/1 | 50/92 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 63% | 30% | 100% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | |
| Converted | 7/17 | 3/10 | 4/6 | 1/1 | 15/34 | |
| Converted % | 41% | 30% | 67% | 100% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 20 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 7/9 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 78% | 40% | – | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLWLWWLW
Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Alycia Parks/Taylor TownsendParks/Taylor Townsend – Storm Hunter/Elise MertensHunter/Elise Mertens (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Lucas PouillePouille – Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic (6-3 6-74 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
- James Cerretani/Leander PaesCerretani/Leander Paes – Damir Dzumhur/Filip KrajinovicDzumhur/Filip Krajinovic (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Malek JaziriJaziri (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Cori GauffGauff (7-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction
