Jan Choinski and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will square off in the final of the Meerbusch Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on VOBA MEERBUSCH COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jan Choinski who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jan Choinski is the pick to win this match.
Jan Choinski -> 1.86
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.89

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Jan Choinski vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli

This will be the 2^nd time that Jan Choinski and Camilo Ugo Carabelli square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Choinski (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.

The last time that they fought against each other, Choinski won 6-0 6-0 in the final in M15 Santo Domingo back in 2019.

Jan Choinski

Ranked no. 148 (career-high), the German reached the final after beating Nicola Kuhn 7-6⁴ 6-4, Louis Wessels 6-2 6-7⁰ 7-6⁵, Dimitar Kuzmanov 2-6 7-5 6-3 and Titouan Droguet 6-1 6-4.

In the semifinal, Choinski had a good straight sets win against Droguet (6-1 6-4). During the match, Choinski scored 61 points vs Droguet’s 40. Choinski was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Regarding the service games, Choinski struck 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jan Choinski was extremely effective on serve to win 82% (32/39) of his 1st serve and 53% (8/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jan broke Droguet 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The German has lost 2 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Choinski has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (328-207). 24-13 on clay in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Choinski has a compiled 179-99 match record in the last years on clay.

The German’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in M25 Nussloch,the Cherbourg Challenger,the Mexico City Challenger,the San Luis Potosi Challenger and the Meerbusch Challenger.

Jan has an overall 35-25 win-loss record in 2023, 24-13 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Meerbusch Challenger

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Ranked no. 171, Camilo got to the final after defeating Tibo Colson 6-2 6-2, Ergi Kirkin 6-1 6-4, Benjamin Hassan 7-6² 1-6 6-2 and Manuel Guinard 7-6⁵ 6-0.

In the semifinal, Camilo had a good straight sets win against Guinard (7-6⁵

6-0). During the match Ugo scored 75 points vs Guinard’s 52. The Argentine was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.

About the serving games, Ugo scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Camilo Ugo Carabelli was very effective on serve to win 74% (31/42) of his 1st serve and 56% (14/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Ugo broke Guinard 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Argentine has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The Argentine’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Piracicaba Challenger and the Meerbusch Challenger.

The Argentine has an aggregate 25-18 win-loss record in 2023, 25-17 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Choinski	Ugo
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	9
Tot Games	103	80
Pts	327-291	288-234
Total Points	618	522
Winners	135	124
%Winners	41%	43%

Both Choinski and Ugo played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jan Choinski conceded 2 sets, while Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost 1 set. Choinski has played 1 set more than Ugo (10 vs 9). Therefore, Choinski played 23 games more than Ugo. Jan scored 135 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Ugo recorded 124 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Choinski	Ugo
Aces	8	7
Avg per match	2	1.8
1st in	191/310	186/264
%1st in	62%	70%
1st pts	135/191	124/186
%1st pts	71%	67%
2nd pts	68/119	44/78
%2nd pts	57%	56%

Choinski fired 8 aces (2 per match). Ugo struck 7 aces (1.8 per match). Choinski won 71% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Ugo won 67% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Choinski	Ugo
Won	15	16
Converted	15/30	16/29
% Converted	50%	55%
Conceded	24	25
Saved	15	19
% Saved	63%	76%
Times Broken	9	6

The German broke his opponents 15 times with a 50% conversion rate. The German lost his serve 9 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Ugo broke his opponents 16 times with a 55% conversion rate. Ugo conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.

Choinski
	R1 Kuhn	R2 Wessels	1/4 Kuzmanov	1/2 Droguet	Total
Score	7-64 6-4	6-2 6-70 7-65	2-6 7-5 6-3	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	3	2	10
Tot Games	23	34	29	17	103
pts	79-68	107-103	80-80	61-40	327-291
Total points	147	210	160	101	618
Winners	27	40	36	32	135
%Winners	34%	37%	45%	52%	41%
SERVE
Aces	0	4	1	3	8
Double Faults	1	1	2	2	6
1st in	44/66	55/102	53/88	39/54	191/310
% 1st in	67%	54%	60%	72%	62%
1st pts	27/44	40/55	36/53	32/39	135/191
% 1st pts	61%	73%	68%	82%	71%
2nd pts	11/22	26/47	23/35	8/15	68/119
% 2nd pts	50%	55%	66%	53%	57%
Breaks
Won	5	4	3	3	15
Converted	5/9	4/11	3/6	3/4	15/30
Converted %	56%	36%	50%	75%	50%
Conceded	8	9	6	1	24
Saved	4/8	7/9	3/6	1/1	15
Saved %	50%	78%	50%	100%	70%
Times Broken	4	2	3	0	9

Ugo
	R1 Colson	R2 Kirkin	1/4 Hassan	1/2 Guinard	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	6-1 6-4	7-62 1-6 6-2	7-65 6-0
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	16	17	28	19	80
pts	62-42	60-41	91-99	75-52	288-234
Total points	104	101	190	127	522
Winners	26	31	36	31	124
%Winners	42%	52%	40%	41%	43%
SERVE
Aces	1	4	1	1	7
Double Faults	1	1	1	3	6
1st in	38/49	47/59	59/89	42/67	186/264
% 1st in	78%	80%	66%	63%	70%
1st pts	26/38	31/47	36/59	31/42	124/186
% 1st pts	68%	66%	61%	74%	67%
2nd pts	6/11	7/12	17/30	14/25	44/78
% 2nd pts	55%	58%	57%	56%	56%
Breaks
Won	5	4	3	4	16
Converted	5/9	4/6	3/8	4/6	16/29
Converted %	56%	67%	38%	67%	55%
Conceded	5	5	11	4	25
Saved	4/5	4/5	8/11	3/4	19
Saved %	80%	80%	73%	75%	77%
Times Broken	1	1	3	1	6

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Jan ChoinskiChoinski (0-1) – H2H and prediction