Illya Marchenko and Matija Pecotic will face off in the final of the Salinas Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 11:00 am on CANCHA CENTRAL A. GÓMEZ. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matija Pecotic who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Matija Pecotic is the pick to win this match.
Matija Pecotic -> 1.87
Illya Marchenko -> 1.88

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Prediction and head to head Illya Marchenko vs. Matija Pecotic

There is no head to head record between Illya Marchenko and Matija Pecotic since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Illya Marchenko

Ranked no. 328, the Ukrainian got to the final after beating Omni Kumar 3-6 6-3 6-4, Evgeny Donskoy 7-5 7-5, Rio Noguchi 6-3 3-6 7-6² and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 7-6⁰ 6-4.

In the semifinal, The Ukrainian had a good straight sets win against Mpetshi Perricard (7-6⁰ 6-4). During the match, Marchenko scored 80 points vs Mpetshi Perricard’s 64. Illya was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about the service games, Marchenko struck 11 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Illya Marchenko was quite efficient on serve to win 84% (36/43) of his 1st serve and 76% (13/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Marchenko broke Mpetshi Perricard once after converting 9% of his break points (1/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Illya has conceded 2 set in this competition to conquer 53% of the points he played.

Marchenko has good match record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (284-219). 13-3 on hard in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Marchenko has an aggregate 113-88 record in the last years on hard.

Marchenko’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in the Puerto Vallarta Challenger and the Salinas Challenger.

Marchenko has a composed 25-14 win-loss record in 2023, 13-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Salinas Challenger

Marchenko has never competed in this tournament before.

Matija Pecotic

Ranked no. 611, the Croatian reached the final after beating Andres Urrea 6-1 6-1, Blake Ellis 6-3 4-6 6-1, Tristan Schoolkate 7-5 7-6⁷, Dane Sweeny 7-6⁸ 6-1, Omar Jasika 6-3 7-5 and Altug Celikbilek 7-5 6-1.

In the semifinal, Matija had a good straight sets win against Celikbilek (7-5 6-1). During the match Pecotic scored 65 points vs Celikbilek’s 43. Matija was extremely aggressive to blast 22 winners.

About the serving games, Pecotic fired 4 aces and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Matija Pecotic lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Pecotic put 67% of his first serves in, winning 63% (22/35) of the points behind his 1st serve and 82% (14/17) on the 2nd serve. Matija broke Celikbilek 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Matija started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

Pecotic’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M15 Orange Park.

Matija has a compiled 16-8 win-loss record in 2023, 10-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Marchenko	Pecotic
Match played	4	6
Tot Set	10	13
Tot Games	106	125
Pts	345-304	456-356
Total Points	649	812
Winners	136	167
%Winners	39%	37%

Marchenko played 4 matches while Pecotic competed in 6 matches. Pecotic started his run from the qualifications while Marchenko had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Illya Marchenko conceded 2 sets, while Matija Pecotic lost 1 set. Marchenko has played 3 set(s) less than Pecotic (10 vs 13). Therefore, Marchenko played 19 games less than Pecotic. Marchenko scored 136 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Matija bagged 167 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Marchenko	Pecotic
Aces	31	23
Avg per match	7.8	3.8
1st in	181/319	261/399
%1st in	57%	65%
1st pts	136/181	167/261
%1st pts	75%	64%
2nd pts	74/138	90/138
%2nd pts	54%	65%

Marchenko recorded 31 aces (7.8 per match). Pecotic fired 23 aces (3.8 per match). Marchenko won 75% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Pecotic won 64% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Marchenko	Pecotic
Won	14	27
Converted	14/38	27/48
% Converted	37%	56%
Conceded	23	25
Saved	13	14
% Saved	57%	56%
Times Broken	10	11

The Ukrainian broke his opponents 14 times with a 37% conversion rate. Illya lost his serve 10 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. Matija broke his opponents 27 times with a 56% conversion rate. Pecotic conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded.

Marchenko
	R1 Kumar	R2 Donskoy	1/4 Noguchi	1/2 Mpetshi	Total
Score	3-6 6-3 6-4	7-5 7-5	6-3 3-6 7-62	7-60 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	10
Tot Games	28	24	31	23	106
pts	85-78	76-63	104-99	80-64	345-304
Total points	163	139	203	144	649
Winners	35	24	41	36	136
%Winners	41%	32%	39%	45%	39%
SERVE
Aces	8	5	7	11	31
Double Faults	5	3	1	3	12
1st in	46/90	35/64	57/105	43/60	181/319
% 1st in	51%	55%	54%	72%	57%
1st pts	35/46	24/35	41/57	36/43	136/181
% 1st pts	76%	69%	72%	84%	75%
2nd pts	24/44	12/29	25/48	13/17	74/138
% 2nd pts	55%	41%	52%	76%	54%
Breaks
Won	3	7	3	1	14
Converted	3/4	7/13	3/10	1/11	14/38
Converted %	75%	54%	30%	9%	37%
Conceded	7	6	10	0	23
Saved	5/7	1/6	7/10	0/0	13
Saved %	71%	17%	70%	–	40%
Times Broken	2	5	3	0	10

Pecotic
	Q1 Urrea	Q3 Ellis	R1 Schoolkate	R2 Sweeny	1/4 Jasika	1/2 Celikbilek	Total
Score	6-1 6-1	6-3 4-6 6-1	7-5 7-67	7-68 6-1	6-3 7-5	7-5 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	2	2	13
Tot Games	14	26	25	20	21	19	125
pts	60-33	89-68	92-88	72-61	78-63	65-43	456-356
Total points	93	157	180	133	141	108	812
Winners	24	35	35	27	24	22	167
%Winners	40%	39%	38%	38%	31%	34%	37%
SERVE
Aces	0	5	4	4	6	4	23
Double Faults	0	1	1	2	2	0	6
1st in	31/45	48/72	56/88	51/78	40/64	35/52	261/399
% 1st in	69%	67%	64%	65%	63%	67%	65%
1st pts	24/31	35/48	35/56	27/51	24/40	22/35	167/261
% 1st pts	77%	73%	63%	53%	60%	63%	64%
2nd pts	8/14	16/24	21/32	17/27	14/24	14/17	90/138
% 2nd pts	57%	67%	66%	63%	58%	82%	65%
Breaks
Won	5	4	3	5	5	5	27
Converted	5/5	4/11	3/7	5/6	5/11	5/8	27/48
Converted %	100%	36%	43%	83%	45%	63%	56%
Conceded	2	1	8	6	4	4	25
Saved	2/2	0/1	6/8	3/6	1/4	2/4	14
Saved %	100%	0%	75%	50%	25%	50%	75%
Times Broken	0	1	2	3	3	2	11

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Matija PecoticPecotic – Illya MarchenkoMarchenko (0-0) – H2H and prediction