Jozef Kovalik and Elias Ymer will fight against each other in the qualifications of the Hamburg European Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on M2. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elias Ymer who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elias Ymer is the pick to win this match.
Elias Ymer -> 1.86
Jozef Kovalik -> 1.87
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Prediction and head to head Jozef Kovalik vs. Elias Ymer
This will be the 4th time that Jozef Kovalik and Elias Ymer clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Ymer (see full H2H stats), but Kovalik leads 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they played, Kovalik won 7-5 3-6 6-4 in the semifinal in the Tulln Challenger back in 2022.
Jozef Kovalik
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-23 | 2-5 | 11-14 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-25 | 3-5 | 30-15 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 23-34 | 1-3 | 21-28 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-23 | 3-6 | 29-13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 31-27 | 0-1 | 26-20 | 5-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 159, Kovalik reached the qualifications after beating Pavel Kotov 6-3 5-7 6-4.
In the qualifications, Jozef defeated Kotov (6-3 5-7 6-4). During the match, Kovalik scored 110 points vs Kotov’s 96. The Slovakian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kovalik bagged 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Jozef Kovalik was extremely efficient on serve to win 76% (41/54) of his 1st serve and 58% (18/31) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. Jozef broke Kotov 4 times after converting 20% of his break points (4/20).
Kovalik has winning win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (327-256). 13-18 on clay in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Kovalik has an overall 253-163 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Jozef has a compiled 15-23 win-loss record in 2023, 13-18 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Hamburg
Elias Ymer
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36-32 | 12-8 | 16-20 | 7-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-32 | 7-15 | 6-9 | 8-7 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-41 | 10-13 | 24-17 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-32 | 12-11 | 20-15 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-29 | 9-9 | 20-11 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 166, Elias reached the qualifications after beating Ivan Gakhov 6-3 6-2.
In the qualifications, The Swede had a good straight sets win against Gakhov (6-3 6-2). During the match Ymer scored 60 points vs Gakhov’s 41. Elias was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.
About the serving games, Ymer recorded 2 aces and he was quite steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Elias Ymer lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Ymer put 43% of his first serves in, winning 83% (19/23) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (13/30) on the 2nd serve. Elias was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Gakhov 5 times.
The Swede has an overall 25-22 win-loss record in 2023, 16-10 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Hamburg
Ymer has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kovalik | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 31 | 17 |
| Pts | 110-96 | 60-41 |
| Total Points | 206 | 101 |
| Winners | 41 | 19 |
| %Winners | 37% | 32% |
Both Kovalik and Ymer played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Jozef Kovalik surrendered 1 set while Elias Ymer hasn’t dropped a set so far. Kovalik has played 1 set more than Ymer (3 vs 2). Therefore, Kovalik played 14 games more than Ymer. Jozef scored 41 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Elias made 19 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kovalik | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 2 |
| 1st in | 54/85 | 23/53 |
| %1st in | 64% | 43% |
| 1st pts | 41/54 | 19/23 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 18/31 | 13/30 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 43% |
Kovalik fired 3 aces . Ymer bagged 2 aces . Kovalik won 76% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Ymer won 83% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kovalik | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 5 |
| Converted | 4/20 | 5/5 |
| % Converted | 20% | 100% |
| Conceded | 9 | 5 |
| Saved | 6 | 3 |
| % Saved | 67% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 |
The Slovakian broke his opponent 4 times with a 20% conversion rate. Kovalik conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Swede broke his opponent 5 times with a 100% conversion rate. Elias conceded his serve twice and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Kovalik | |||
| Q1 Kotov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 5-7 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 31 | |
| pts | 110-96 | 110-96 | |
| Total points | 206 | 206 | |
| Winners | 41 | 41 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 54/85 | 54/85 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 41/54 | 41/54 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/31 | 18/31 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/20 | 4/20 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 20% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 9 | |
| Saved | 6/9 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Ymer | |||
| Q1 Gakhov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 60-41 | 60-41 | |
| Total points | 101 | 101 | |
| Winners | 19 | 19 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 23/53 | 23/53 | |
| % 1st in | 43% | 43% | |
| 1st pts | 19/23 | 19/23 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/30 | 13/30 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 43% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/5 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWLWWWLW
LWLLWWWWLW 
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