Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will fight against each other in the quarter of Wimbledon for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:00 pm on Court 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.44
Madison Keys -> 2.79
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys face off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on grass.
The last time that they played each other, Keys won 6-4 1-6 7-5 in the 2nd round in Berlin back in 2021.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka – Berlin 16-June-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 49-12 | 33-7 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Aryna got to the quarter after beating Panna Udvardy 6-3 6-1, Varvara Gracheva 2-6 7-5 6-2, Anna Blinkova 6-2 6-3 and Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-0.
In the 4th round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Alexandrova (6-4 6-0). During the match, Sabalenka scored 59 points vs Alexandrova’s 40. Sabalenka was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 7 aces and she was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was pretty effective on serve to win 77% (24/31) of her 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Belarussian broke Alexandrova 4 times after converting 36% of her break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 67% of her matches (302-147). 5-1 on grass in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an overall32-17 match record in the last 8 years on grass.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she overcame Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
Sabalenka has a composed 39-7 win-loss record in 2023, 5-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Wimbledon
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-11 | 7-5 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 18, Keys got to the quarter after defeating Sonay Kartal 6-0 6-3, Viktorija Golubic 7-5 6-3, Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-1 and Mirra Andreeva 3-6 7-64 6-2.
In the 4th round against Andreeva, Madison recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-64 6-2). During the match Keys scored 104 points vs Andreeva’s 97. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 51 winners.
About the serving games, Keys bagged 3 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 4 times and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 71% of her first serves in, winning 68% (51/75) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (14/30) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Andreeva 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Australia where she defeated Lucia Bronzetti in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Eastbourne where she defeated Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-2 7-6(13).
The American has a composed 25-8 win-loss record in 2023, 9-0 on grass (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 77 | 83 |
| Pts | 279-209 | 315-247 |
| Total Points | 488 | 562 |
| Winners | 113 | 149 |
| %Winners | 41% | 47% |
Both Sabalenka and Keys played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set, while Madison Keys surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Keys have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Sabalenka played 6 games less than Keys. Aryna scored 113 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Keys blasted 149 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 33 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 8.3 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 148/234 | 196/279 |
| %1st in | 63% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 113/148 | 149/196 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 42/86 | 36/83 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 43% |
Sabalenka made 33 aces (8.3 per match). Keys struck 10 aces (2.5 per match). Sabalenka won 76% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 16 |
| Converted | 17/43 | 16/35 |
| % Converted | 40% | 46% |
| Conceded | 12 | 31 |
| Saved | 7 | 25 |
| % Saved | 58% | 81% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 6 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 17 times with a 40% conversion rate. Aryna dropped her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 16 times with a 46% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 81% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R1 Udvardy |
R2 Gracheva |
R3 Blinkova |
R4 Alexandrova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | 2-6 7-5 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 28 | 17 | 16 | 77 | |
| pts | 62-37 | 88-80 | 70-52 | 59-40 | 279-209 | |
| Total points | 99 | 168 | 122 | 99 | 488 | |
| Winners | 21 | 38 | 30 | 24 | 113 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 43% | 43% | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 33 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 26/43 | 45/72 | 46/73 | 31/46 | 148/234 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 63% | 63% | 67% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 21/26 | 38/45 | 30/46 | 24/31 | 113/148 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 84% | 65% | 77% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/17 | 9/27 | 12/27 | 9/15 | 42/86 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 33% | 44% | 60% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/16 | 5/9 | 4/11 | 17/43 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 25% | 56% | 36% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 12 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 0/3 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 0% | 71% | – | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Keys | ||||||
| R1 Kartal |
R2 Golubic |
R3 Kostyuk |
R4 Andreeva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-3 | 7-5 6-3 | 6-4 6-1 | 3-6 7-64 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 21 | 17 | 30 | 83 | |
| pts | 71-49 | 71-52 | 69-49 | 104-97 | 315-247 | |
| Total points | 120 | 123 | 118 | 201 | 562 | |
| Winners | 29 | 36 | 33 | 51 | 149 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 51% | 48% | 49% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 41/59 | 39/55 | 41/60 | 75/105 | 196/279 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 71% | 68% | 71% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 29/41 | 36/39 | 33/41 | 51/75 | 149/196 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 92% | 80% | 68% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 6/16 | 6/19 | 14/30 | 36/83 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 38% | 32% | 47% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 3/6 | 5/7 | 4/10 | 16/35 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 71% | 40% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 31 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 2/3 | 10/11 | 8/12 | 25 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 91% | 67% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWWW
LWWLWWLLWW Tennis Scores – Wimbledon
- Daniel Dutra Da SilvaDutra Da Silva – Mariano KestelboimKestelboim (1-6 6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Facundo ArguelloArguello – Juan Ignacio AmealIgnacio Ameal (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Hugo DellienDellien – Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza (7-65 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Martin CuevasCuevas – Franco Emanuel EgeaEmanuel Egea (4-6 6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Elena RybakinaRybakina (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction
