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Why Naomi Osaka can lose the world no.1 rank after Indian Wells

Naomi is going to try to defend her 2018 title in Indian Wells even if that may not be enough. See why.

4 March 2019

Naomi Osaka has started her breakthrough in 2018 after she won the title in Indian Wells.

One year later, the Japanese is aiming at defending that title hoping to preserve her world no.1.

Why Naomi may lose the world no.1 rank

After “stripping” last years’ Indian Wells points there are 5 players that can claim the world no.1 status after competing in the desert as follows.

		R128	R64	R32	R16	1/4	1/2	Fin	Winner
Player	Points	10	35	65	120	215	390	650	1000
1- Osaka	5871	5881	5906	5936	5991	6086	6261	6521	6871
2- Kvitova	5540	5550	5575	5605	5660	5755	5930	6190	6540
3- Halep	5337	5347	5372	5402	5457	5552	5727	5987	6337
4- Stephens	5212	5222	5247	5277	5332	5427	5602	5862	6212
5- Pliskova	4930	4940	4965	4995	5050	5145	5320	5580	5930

There are all sorts of scenarios, but let’s analyze the most plausible.

Osaka

Naomi will remain world no.1 is she defends her title or if she is the runner-up, but Kvitova doesn’t win the tournament.

If Naomi reaches the semifinal, she will stay no.1 unless both Kvitova and Halep do not win the titles.

If Naomi reaches only the quarters, she will remain no.1 unless Kvitova reaches the final and Halep or Stephens win the tournament.

To understand the complexity of the situation, Osaka may even retain the top spot of the rankings if she loses in the first round, and none of the other top5 players gets to the semifinal (except for Petra Kvitova).

Kvitova

Petra will become the new world no.1 if she wins the title or she reaches the final, but she doesn’t lose to Osaka or Halep or Stephens and Osaka doesn’t reach the semifinal.

Halep

Simona will be back to world no.1 if she wins the title and Osaka is not the runner-up. If Simona is the runner-up, she can also be ranked no.1 if Osaka doesn’t get to the 4th round and Kvitova and Stephens do not win the title.

Again all sort of scenarios are open, and 5 women will have a shot at the top spot.

Game on.

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