Matteo Arnaldi and Facundo Diaz Acosta will play each other in the final of the Heilbronn Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.52
Facundo Diaz Acosta -> 2.45
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta
This will be the 2nd time that Matteo Arnaldi and Facundo Diaz Acosta clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Diaz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they played, Diaz won 7-6(6) 6-2 in the final in M25 Eupen back in 2021.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28-22 | 16-11 | 10-9 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 106, the Italian reached the final after beating Norbert Gombos 7-5 6-3, Marko Topo 2-6 6-3 6-1, Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 1-6 6-4 7-5 and Pedro Martinez Portero 7-64 7-5.
In the semifinal, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Martinez Portero (7-64 7-5). During the match, Arnaldi scored 99 points vs Martinez Portero’s 87. Matteo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about the service games, Arnaldi recorded 12 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 63% of his first serves in, winning 76% (39/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (15/30) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Martinez Portero 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has lost 2 set in this competition to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Arnaldi has a solid match record in the last 6 years having won 63% of his matches (164-97). 18-5 on clay in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Arnaldi has a composed110-53 win-loss record in the last 6 years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he beat Raul Brancaccio in the final 6-1 6-2 and the Murcia Challenger where he overcame Borna Gojo in the final 6-4 7-6(4).
Arnaldi has a compiled 28-15 win-loss record in 2023, 18-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Heilbronn Challenger
Matteo has never competed in this tournament before.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-18 | 3-7 | 16-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 50-25 | 4-4 | 46-20 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-21 | 0-1 | 31-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-30 | 7-4 | 36-26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 22-12 | 10-7 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 137, Facundo reached the final after defeating Oscar Otte 6-4 6-71 6-1, Maxime Janvier 6-1 3-6 7-65, Akira Santillan 7-5 6-3 and Rudolf Molleker 7-5 6-3.
In the semifinal, Facundo had a good straight sets win against Molleker (7-5 6-3). During the match Diaz scored 72 points vs Molleker’s 63. Facundo was pretty aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about serving, Diaz scored 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Facundo Diaz Acosta lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Diaz put 57% of his first serves in, winning 59% (24/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (18/31) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Molleker 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Savannah Challenger where he overcame Tristan Boyer in the final 6-3 6-1 and the Oeiras 4 Challenger where he defeated Aleksandar Vukic in the final 6-4 6-3.
The Argentine has an aggregate 28-12 win-loss record in 2023, 25-10 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Arnaldi | Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 99 | 101 |
| Pts | 327-301 | 341-302 |
| Total Points | 628 | 643 |
| Winners | 129 | 142 |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% |
Both Arnaldi and Diaz played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matteo Arnaldi dropped 2 sets, while Facundo Diaz Acosta surrendered 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Arnaldi and Diaz have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Arnaldi played 2 games less than Diaz. The Italian scored 129 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Facundo fired 142 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Arnaldi | Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 23 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 174/304 | 204/319 |
| %1st in | 57% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 129/174 | 142/204 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 64/130 | 69/115 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 60% |
Arnaldi made 23 aces (5.8 per match). Diaz struck 13 aces (3.3 per match). Arnaldi won 74% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Diaz won 70% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Arnaldi | Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 14 |
| Converted | 15/28 | 14/32 |
| % Converted | 54% | 44% |
| Conceded | 21 | 18 |
| Saved | 10 | 12 |
| % Saved | 48% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 6 |
Arnaldi broke his opponents 15 times with a 54% conversion rate. Arnaldi lost his serve 11 times and he saved 48% of the break points that he conceded. Diaz broke his opponents 14 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Gombos |
R2 Topo |
1/4 Munar Clar |
1/2 Martinez Portero |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | 2-6 6-3 6-1 | 1-6 6-4 7-5 | 7-64 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 24 | 29 | 25 | 99 | |
| pts | 69-54 | 73-70 | 86-90 | 99-87 | 327-301 | |
| Total points | 123 | 143 | 176 | 186 | 628 | |
| Winners | 28 | 25 | 37 | 39 | 129 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 34% | 43% | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 36/62 | 37/72 | 50/89 | 51/81 | 174/304 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 51% | 56% | 63% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 28/36 | 25/37 | 37/50 | 39/51 | 129/174 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 68% | 74% | 76% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/26 | 21/35 | 15/39 | 15/30 | 64/130 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 60% | 38% | 50% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/6 | 4/9 | 3/6 | 15/28 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 67% | 44% | 50% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 21 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 1/3 | 4/9 | 3/5 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 33% | 44% | 60% | 47% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | |
| Diaz | ||||||
| R1 Otte |
R2 Janvier |
1/4 Santillan |
1/2 Molleker |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-71 6-1 | 6-1 3-6 7-65 | 7-5 6-3 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 29 | 21 | 21 | 101 | |
| pts | 96-85 | 97-89 | 76-65 | 72-63 | 341-302 | |
| Total points | 181 | 186 | 141 | 135 | 643 | |
| Winners | 45 | 39 | 34 | 24 | 142 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 40% | 45% | 33% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 63/101 | 55/83 | 45/63 | 41/72 | 204/319 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 66% | 71% | 57% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 45/63 | 39/55 | 34/45 | 24/41 | 142/204 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | 76% | 59% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/38 | 20/28 | 9/18 | 18/31 | 69/115 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 71% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 2/10 | 3/8 | 5/9 | 14/32 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 20% | 38% | 56% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 18 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 0/1 | 4/5 | 4/7 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 0% | 80% | 57% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
