Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova will face off in the final of the French Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 3:00 pm on Court PHILIPPE-CHATRIER. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.11
Karolina Muchova -> 6.6
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova
This will be the 2nd time that Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Muchova (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Muchova won 4-6 6-1 6-4 in the 1st round in Prague back in 2019.
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27-9 | 21-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Swiatek got to the final after defeating Cristina Bucsa 6-4 6-0, Claire Liu 6-4 6-0, Xinyu Wang 6-0 6-0, Lesya Tsurenko 5-1 ret., Cori Gauff 6-4 6-2 and Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-2 7-67.
In the semifinal, Iga had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (6-2 7-67). During the match, Swiatek scored 77 points vs Haddad Maia’s 66. Swiatek was pretty aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 4 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 61% of her first serves in, winning 72% (33/46) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (13/30) on the 2nd serve. Swiatek was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Haddad Maia 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Pole hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 60% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 80% of her matches (251-62). 18-2 on clay in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has a composed110-16 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Doha where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Stuttgart where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 6-4.
The Pole has an aggregate 34-6 win-loss record in 2023, 18-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Karolina Muchova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-7 | 10-6 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 21-7 | 15-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 43, the Czech reached the final after beating Maria Sakkari 7-65 7-5, Nadia Podoroska 6-3 0-6 6-3, Irina-Camelia Begu 6-3 6-2, Elina Avanesyan 6-4 6-3, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 7-5 6-2 and Aryna Sabalenka 7-65 6-75 7-5.
In the semifinal, Karolina defeated Sabalenka (7-65 6-75 7-5). During the match Muchova scored 126 points vs Sabalenka’s 115. Muchova was extremely aggressive to blast 49 winners.
About the serving games, Muchova scored 6 aces and she was very consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Karolina Muchova lost the serve 4 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 62% of her first serves in, winning 62% (49/79) of the points behind her 1st serve and 65% (31/48) on the 2nd serve. Muchova was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Sabalenka 5 times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4-tdFOVebQ
Overall Performance in this tournament
Muchova has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Muchova’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in at the French Open .
Karolina has an overall 25-7 win-loss record in 2023, 10-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 14 |
| Tot Games | 89 | 143 |
| Pts | 333-216 | 500-422 |
| Total Points | 549 | 922 |
| Winners | 120 | 175 |
| %Winners | 36% | 35% |
Both Swiatek and Muchova played 6 matches. At the moment, Karolina Muchova dropped 2 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Swiatek has played 2 set(s) less than Muchova (12 vs 14). Therefore, Swiatek played 54 games less than Muchova. Swiatek scored 120 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Muchova scored 175 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 1.2 | 2 |
| 1st in | 175/288 | 271/431 |
| %1st in | 61% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 120/175 | 175/271 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 62/113 | 97/160 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 61% |
Swiatek made 7 aces (1.2 per match). Muchova bagged 12 aces (2 per match). Swiatek won 69% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 65% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 29 | 29 |
| Converted | 29/39 | 29/63 |
| % Converted | 74% | 46% |
| Conceded | 28 | 36 |
| Saved | 20 | 18 |
| % Saved | 71% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 18 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 29 times with a 74% conversion rate. The Pole lost her serve 8 times and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded. The Czech broke her opponents 29 times with a 46% conversion rate. Muchova conceded her serve 18 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | ||||||||
| R1 Bucsa |
R2 Liu |
R3 Wang |
R4 Tsurenko |
1/4 Gauff |
1/2 Haddad Maia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-0 | 6-4 6-0 | 6-0 6-0 | 5-1 ret. | 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 7-67 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 89 | |
| pts | 60-38 | 64-43 | 50-17 | 22-11 | 60-41 | 77-66 | 333-216 | |
| Total points | 98 | 107 | 67 | 33 | 101 | 143 | 549 | |
| Winners | 22 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 21 | 33 | 120 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 33% | 36% | 23% | 35% | 43% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 32/50 | 32/58 | 21/34 | 11/17 | 33/53 | 46/76 | 175/288 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 55% | 62% | 65% | 62% | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | 21/32 | 18/21 | 5/11 | 21/33 | 33/46 | 120/175 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 66% | 86% | 45% | 64% | 72% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 13/26 | 7/13 | 5/6 | 15/20 | 13/30 | 62/113 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 50% | 54% | 83% | 75% | 43% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 29 | |
| Converted | 6/8 | 6/8 | 6/9 | 3/5 | 4/5 | 4/4 | 29/39 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 75% | 67% | 60% | 80% | 100% | 74% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 28 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 8/10 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 4/5 | 5/7 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 80% | – | 50% | 80% | 71% | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Muchova | ||||||||
| R1 Sakkari |
R2 Podoroska |
R3 Begu |
R4 Avanesyan |
1/4 Pavlyuchenkova |
1/2 Sabalenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 7-5 | 6-3 0-6 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 | 7-65 6-75 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 24 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 38 | 143 | |
| pts | 84-75 | 75-71 | 71-49 | 71-59 | 73-53 | 126-115 | 500-422 | |
| Total points | 159 | 146 | 120 | 130 | 126 | 241 | 922 | |
| Winners | 32 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 49 | 175 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 39% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 49/76 | 38/59 | 37/56 | 35/55 | 33/58 | 79/127 | 271/431 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 64% | 66% | 64% | 57% | 62% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 32/49 | 23/38 | 26/37 | 22/35 | 23/33 | 49/79 | 175/271 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 61% | 70% | 63% | 70% | 62% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/27 | 12/21 | 12/19 | 9/20 | 16/25 | 31/48 | 97/160 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 57% | 63% | 45% | 64% | 65% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 29 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/9 | 4/12 | 7/16 | 5/11 | 5/5 | 29/63 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 44% | 33% | 44% | 45% | 100% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 36 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 3/7 | 2/4 | 9/13 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 0% | 0% | 43% | 50% | 69% | 37% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | |
Head 2 Head
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