Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova will fight against each other in the semifinal of the French Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 3:00 pm on Court Philippe-CHATRIER. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.31
Karolina Muchova -> 3.46
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Karolina Muchova
This will be the 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 7-5 7-6(4) in the semifinal in Zhuhai back in 2019.
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34-6 | 23-4 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Aryna reached the semifinal after beating Marta Kostyuk 6-3 6-2, Iryna Shymanovich 7-5 6-2, Kamilla Rakhimova 6-2 6-2, Sloane Stephens 7-65 6-4 and Elina Svitolina 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Svitolina (6-4 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 76 points vs Svitolina’s 67. Sabalenka was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace during the match and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 59% of her first serves in, winning 64% (23/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 72% (18/25) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Svitolina 3 times after converting 33% of her break points (3/9).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5jWssXpvr8
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 67% of her matches (297-145). 14-2 on clay in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a compiled62-34 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she overcame Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
Sabalenka has an aggregate 34-5 win-loss record in 2023, 14-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Karolina Muchova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-7 | 10-6 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 21-7 | 15-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 43, Muchova reached the semifinal after defeating Maria Sakkari 7-65 7-5, Nadia Podoroska 6-3 0-6 6-3, Irina-Camelia Begu 6-3 6-2, Elina Avanesyan 6-4 6-3 and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 7-5 6-2.
In the quarter, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Pavlyuchenkova (7-5 6-2). During the match Muchova scored 73 points vs Pavlyuchenkova’s 53. The Czech was extremely aggressive to blast 23 winners.
About the serving games, Muchova was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karolina Muchova lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 57% of her first serves in, winning 70% (23/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 64% (16/25) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Pavlyuchenkova 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwkBDGOYcfw
Overall Performance in this tournament
Karolina has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Karolina has an overall 24-7 win-loss record in 2023, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 96 | 105 |
| Pts | 345-271 | 374-307 |
| Total Points | 616 | 681 |
| Winners | 145 | 126 |
| %Winners | 42% | 34% |
Both Sabalenka and Muchova played 5 matches. At the moment, Karolina Muchova dropped 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Muchova (10 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 9 games less than Muchova. Aryna scored 145 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech bagged 126 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1st in | 191/287 | 192/304 |
| %1st in | 67% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 145/191 | 126/192 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 49/96 | 66/112 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 59% |
Sabalenka recorded 12 aces (2.4 per match). Muchova fired 6 aces (1.2 per match). Sabalenka won 76% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 66% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 59% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 24 |
| Converted | 20/44 | 24/58 |
| % Converted | 45% | 41% |
| Conceded | 16 | 23 |
| Saved | 9 | 9 |
| % Saved | 56% | 39% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 14 |
Aryna broke her opponents 20 times with a 45% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 7 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded. Muchova broke her opponents 24 times with a 41% conversion rate. Karolina conceded her serve 14 times and she saved 39% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R1 Kostyuk |
R2 Shymanovich |
R3 Rakhimova |
R4 Stephens |
1/4 Svitolina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 7-5 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 | 7-65 6-4 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 20 | 16 | 23 | 20 | 96 | |
| pts | 62-45 | 72-53 | 58-39 | 77-67 | 76-67 | 345-271 | |
| Total points | 107 | 125 | 97 | 144 | 143 | 616 | |
| Winners | 29 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 23 | 145 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 46% | 52% | 39% | 30% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 40/57 | 39/55 | 37/51 | 39/63 | 36/61 | 191/287 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 71% | 73% | 62% | 59% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 29/40 | 33/39 | 30/37 | 30/39 | 23/36 | 145/191 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 85% | 81% | 77% | 64% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/17 | 5/16 | 6/14 | 11/24 | 18/25 | 49/96 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 31% | 43% | 46% | 72% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 5/10 | 4/7 | 4/9 | 3/9 | 20/44 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 50% | 57% | 44% | 33% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 50% | 100% | 40% | 0% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Muchova | |||||||
| R1 Sakkari |
R2 Podoroska |
R3 Begu |
R4 Avanesyan |
1/4 Pavlyuchenkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 7-5 | 6-3 0-6 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 24 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 105 | |
| pts | 84-75 | 75-71 | 71-49 | 71-59 | 73-53 | 374-307 | |
| Total points | 159 | 146 | 120 | 130 | 126 | 681 | |
| Winners | 32 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 126 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 32% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 49/76 | 38/59 | 37/56 | 35/55 | 33/58 | 192/304 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 64% | 66% | 64% | 57% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 32/49 | 23/38 | 26/37 | 22/35 | 23/33 | 126/192 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 61% | 70% | 63% | 70% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/27 | 12/21 | 12/19 | 9/20 | 16/25 | 66/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 57% | 63% | 45% | 64% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 24 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/9 | 4/12 | 7/16 | 5/11 | 24/58 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 44% | 33% | 44% | 45% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 23 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 3/7 | 2/4 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 0% | 0% | 43% | 50% | 30% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-1) – H2H and prediction
