Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune will face off in the final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Holger Rune who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Holger Rune is the pick to win this match.
Holger Rune -> 1.73
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.11
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune
This will be the 2nd time that Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rune (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Rune won 6-3 6-4 in the quarter in Monte carlo back in April 2023.
Highlights Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev – Monte carlo 14-April-2023
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20-5 | 18-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Medvedev reached the final after beating Emil Ruusuvuori 6-4 6-2, Bernabe Zapata Miralles 3-6 6-1 6-3, Alexander Zverev 6-2 7-63, Yannick Hanfmann 6-2 6-2 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5 7-5.
In the semifinal, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Tsitsipas (7-5 7-5). During the match, Medvedev scored 69 points vs Tsitsipas’s 62. Medvedev was exceptionally aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Medvedev struck 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Medvedev put 58% of his first serves in, winning 83% (30/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (12/26) on the 2nd serve. Medvedev was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Tsitsipas 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil has surrendered 1 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Medvedev has an extraordinary record in the last 10 years having won 72% of his matches (461-183). 9-2 on clay in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has a compiled 76-42 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he overcame Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he beat Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Miami where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-5 6-3.
Medvedev has a compiled 38-5 win-loss record in 2023, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18-9 | 10-5 | 5-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 32-16 | 1-3 | 28-11 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7 (career-high), the Dane reached the final after defeating Arthur Fils 6-3 6-3, Fabio Fognini 6-4 6-2, Alexei Popyrin 6-4 5-7 6-4, Novak Djokovic 6-2 4-6 6-2 and Casper Ruud 6-72 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal against Ruud, The Dane recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-72 6-4 6-2). During the match Rune scored 102 points vs Ruud’s 90. Rune was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Talking about serving, Rune scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Holger Rune lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Rune put 63% of his first serves in, winning 61% (40/66) of the points behind his 1st serve and 74% (28/38) on the 2nd serve. Rune was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Ruud 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Dane has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was conquering the title in Munich where he beat Botic Van De Zandschulp in the final 6-4 1-6 7-6(3).
Holger has an overall 27-9 win-loss record in 2023, 13-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 104 | 125 |
| Pts | 355-289 | 426-357 |
| Total Points | 644 | 783 |
| Winners | 152 | 164 |
| %Winners | 43% | 38% |
Both Medvedev and Rune played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev conceded 1 set, while Holger Rune conceded 3 sets. Medvedev has played 2 set(s) less than Rune (11 vs 13). Therefore, Medvedev played 21 games less than Rune. Medvedev scored 152 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Dane fired 164 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 24 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| 1st in | 199/323 | 228/384 |
| %1st in | 62% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 152/199 | 164/228 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 57/124 | 95/156 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 61% |
Medvedev struck 24 aces (4.8 per match). Rune fired 11 aces (2.2 per match). Medvedev won 76% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Rune won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 23 | 19 |
| Converted | 23/47 | 19/49 |
| % Converted | 49% | 39% |
| Conceded | 20 | 23 |
| Saved | 11 | 17 |
| % Saved | 55% | 74% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 6 |
Medvedev broke his opponents 23 times with a 49% conversion rate. Medvedev dropped his serve 9 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded. Rune broke his opponents 19 times with a 39% conversion rate. The Dane conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||||
| R2 Ruusuvuori |
R3 Zapata Miralles |
R4 Zverev |
1/4 Hanfmann |
1/2 Tsitsipas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 3-6 6-1 6-3 | 6-2 7-63 | 6-2 6-2 | 7-5 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 25 | 21 | 16 | 24 | 104 | |
| pts | 58-47 | 80-69 | 80-63 | 68-48 | 69-62 | 355-289 | |
| Total points | 105 | 149 | 143 | 116 | 131 | 644 | |
| Winners | 25 | 33 | 36 | 28 | 30 | 152 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 41% | 45% | 41% | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 35/54 | 46/71 | 44/68 | 38/68 | 36/62 | 199/323 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 65% | 65% | 56% | 58% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 25/35 | 33/46 | 36/44 | 28/38 | 30/36 | 152/199 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 72% | 82% | 74% | 83% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/19 | 14/25 | 12/24 | 11/30 | 12/26 | 57/124 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 56% | 50% | 37% | 46% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 23 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 5/13 | 3/9 | 6/10 | 4/4 | 23/47 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 38% | 33% | 60% | 100% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 20 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 4/6 | 0/2 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 71% | 67% | 67% | 0% | 41% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Rune | |||||||
| R2 Fils |
R3 Fognini |
R4 Popyrin |
1/4 Djokovic |
1/2 Ruud |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 5-7 6-4 | 6-2 4-6 6-2 | 6-72 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | 32 | 26 | 31 | 125 | |
| pts | 69-47 | 59-45 | 111-105 | 85-70 | 102-90 | 426-357 | |
| Total points | 116 | 104 | 216 | 155 | 192 | 783 | |
| Winners | 25 | 22 | 43 | 34 | 40 | 164 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 37% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 31/53 | 28/53 | 59/96 | 44/78 | 66/104 | 228/384 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 53% | 61% | 56% | 63% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 25/31 | 22/28 | 43/59 | 34/44 | 40/66 | 164/228 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 79% | 73% | 77% | 61% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/22 | 13/25 | 24/37 | 17/34 | 28/38 | 95/156 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 52% | 65% | 50% | 74% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 4/8 | 2/15 | 5/10 | 4/4 | 19/49 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 13% | 50% | 100% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 23 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 5/6 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | 75% | 60% | 83% | 74% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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