Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will square off in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 6:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.32
Aryna Sabalenka -> 3.4
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
This will be the 8th time that Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka play each other. The head to head is 5-2 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on clay.
The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-3 6-4 in the final in Stuttgart back in April 2023.
Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka – Stuttgart 23-April-2023
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-8 | 21-6 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Pole got to the final after beating Julia Grabher 6-3 6-2, Bernarda Pera 6-3 6-2, Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-73 6-3, Petra Martic 6-0 6-3 and Veronika Kudermetova 6-1 6-1.
In the semifinal, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Kudermetova (6-1 6-1). During the match, Swiatek scored 59 points vs Kudermetova’s 36. Iga was pretty aggressive to blast 17 winners.
Regarding the service games, Swiatek wasn’t able to score even 1 ace throughout the match and she was quite steady in conceding no double faults. Iga Swiatek was very efficient on serve to win 71% (17/24) of her 1st serve and 68% (15/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Iga broke Kudermetova 5 times after converting 42% of her break points (5/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Iga has dropped 1 set in this competition to conquer 59% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 80% of her matches (242-60). 9-0 on clay in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has an overall101-14 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Doha where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Stuttgart where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 6-4.
Iga has an aggregate 25-4 win-loss record in 2023, 9-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31-5 | 23-4 | 8-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), the Belarussian reached the final after defeating Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-4 7-5, Mirra Andreeva 6-3 6-1, Mayar Sherif 2-6 6-2 6-1 and Maria Sakkari 6-4 6-1.
In the semifinal, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Sakkari (6-4 6-1). During the match Sabalenka scored 68 points vs Sakkari’s 49. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Sabalenka managed to score 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 69% of her first serves in, winning 71% (29/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (9/18) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Sakkari 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Adelaide where she beat Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Aryna has an aggregate 28-4 win-loss record in 2023, 8-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, she won this tournament once in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 95 | 97 |
| Pts | 320-225 | 362-289 |
| Total Points | 545 | 651 |
| Winners | 127 | 133 |
| %Winners | 40% | 37% |
Both Swiatek and Sabalenka played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek lost 1 set, while Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Swiatek and Sabalenka have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Swiatek played 2 games less than Sabalenka. Iga scored 127 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Aryna managed to score 133 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 20 |
| Avg per match | 1.8 | 4 |
| 1st in | 170/267 | 200/326 |
| %1st in | 64% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 127/170 | 133/200 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 61/97 | 65/126 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 52% |
Swiatek struck 9 aces (1.8 per match). Sabalenka scored 20 aces (4 per match). Swiatek won 75% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 67% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 25 |
| Converted | 21/40 | 25/49 |
| % Converted | 53% | 51% |
| Conceded | 11 | 29 |
| Saved | 7 | 18 |
| % Saved | 64% | 62% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 11 |
The Pole broke her opponents 21 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Pole dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. Aryna broke her opponents 25 times with a 51% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||||
| R2 Grabher |
R3 Pera |
R4 Alexandrova |
1/4 Martic |
1/2 Kudermetova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-73 6-3 | 6-0 6-3 | 6-1 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | 32 | 15 | 14 | 95 | |
| pts | 48-36 | 62-40 | 99-84 | 52-29 | 59-36 | 320-225 | |
| Total points | 84 | 102 | 183 | 81 | 95 | 545 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | 43 | 23 | 17 | 127 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 35% | 43% | 44% | 29% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 30/45 | 28/43 | 58/86 | 30/47 | 24/46 | 170/267 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 65% | 67% | 64% | 52% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 22/30 | 22/28 | 43/58 | 23/30 | 17/24 | 127/170 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 79% | 74% | 77% | 71% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/15 | 10/15 | 18/28 | 10/17 | 15/22 | 61/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 67% | 64% | 59% | 68% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 21 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/13 | 5/6 | 4/4 | 5/12 | 21/40 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 31% | 83% | 100% | 42% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 5/5 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | 33% | 100% | 100% | 47% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R2 Cirstea |
R3 Camila Osorio Serrano |
R4 Andreeva |
1/4 Sherif |
1/2 Sakkari |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-3 6-1 | 2-6 6-2 6-1 | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 16 | 23 | 17 | 97 | |
| pts | 67-54 | 80-72 | 66-44 | 81-70 | 68-49 | 362-289 | |
| Total points | 121 | 152 | 110 | 151 | 117 | 651 | |
| Winners | 30 | 25 | 16 | 33 | 29 | 133 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 31% | 24% | 41% | 43% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 46/64 | 41/69 | 24/45 | 48/89 | 41/59 | 200/326 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 59% | 53% | 54% | 69% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 30/46 | 25/41 | 16/24 | 33/48 | 29/41 | 133/200 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 61% | 67% | 69% | 71% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 15/28 | 15/21 | 17/41 | 9/18 | 65/126 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 71% | 41% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 25 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 6/9 | 4/10 | 25/49 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 42% | 38% | 67% | 40% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 29 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 5/9 | 5/6 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 25% | 50% | 56% | 83% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWLWW
WWWWWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Kevin KingKing – Roberto Cid SuberviCid Subervi (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (5-2) – H2H and prediction
