Jan-Lennard Struff and Aslan Karatsev will square off in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 8:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jan-Lennard Struff who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jan-Lennard Struff is the pick to win this match.
Jan-Lennard Struff -> 1.78
Aslan Karatsev -> 2.04
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Prediction and head to head Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Aslan Karatsev
This will be the 2nd time that Jan-Lennard Struff and Aslan Karatsev face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Karatsev (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Karatsev won 6-4 6-2 in the qualifications in Madrid back in April 2023.
Highlights Aslan Karatsev vs Jan-Lennard Struff – Madrid 25-April-2023
Jan-Lennard Struff
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 30-21 | 4-8 | 15-5 | 5-6 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-24 | 21-9 | 14-7 | 5-6 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-22 | 3-10 | 7-4 | 12-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-30 | 8-11 | 11-8 | 6-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 65, Struff got to the semifinal after defeating Luca Nardi 7-5 6-4, Lorenzo Sonego 6-3 6-1, Ben Shelton 4-6 7-64 7-5, Dusan Lajovic 6-72 6-3 6-3, Pedro Cachin 7-67 6-77 6-3 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-65 5-7 6-3.
In the quarter, Struff defeated Tsitsipas (7-65 5-7 6-3). During the match, Struff and Tsitsipas scored the same amount of points (107). However, the world no. 65 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Struff was quite aggressive to blast 64 winners.
Regarding the service games, Struff blasted 14 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Jan-Lennard Struff lost the serve once and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Struff put 68% of his first serves in, winning 77% (64/83) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (19/39) on the 2nd serve. Jan-Lennard was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Tsitsipas once.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The German started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has lost 4 set in this tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
Struff has positive match record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (325-260). 11-4 on clay in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Struff has an aggregate 126-80 record in the last years on clay.
The German’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Canberra Challenger,the Manama Challenger and the Phoenix Challenger.
Struff has an overall 33-12 win-loss record in 2023, 11-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Aslan Karatsev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-0 | 6-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 12-18 | 6-9 | 1-4 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 121, the Russian reached the semifinal after beating Raul Brancaccio 6-4 6-0, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4 6-2, Laslo Djere 7-65 7-5, Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-2 7-5, Alex De Minaur 6-3 4-6 6-4, Daniil Medvedev 7-61 6-4 and Zhizhen Zhang 7-63 6-4.
In the quarter, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Zhang (7-63 6-4). During the match Karatsev scored 73 points vs Zhang’s 61. Aslan was quite aggressive to blast 36 winners.
About the serving games, Karatsev managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Aslan Karatsev was exceptionally effective on serve to win 82% (36/44) of his 1st serve and 68% (15/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Aslan broke Zhang once after converting 50% of his break points (1/2).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Karatsev started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Karatsev’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Pune.
The Russian has an aggregate 15-8 win-loss record in 2023, 10-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Struff | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Set | 16 | 15 |
| Tot Games | 173 | 154 |
| Pts | 562-520 | 509-421 |
| Total Points | 1082 | 930 |
| Winners | 263 | 233 |
| %Winners | 47% | 46% |
Struff played 6 matches while Karatsev competed in 7 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jan-Lennard Struff conceded 4 sets, while Aslan Karatsev lost 1 set. Struff has played 1 set more than Karatsev (16 vs 15). Therefore, Struff played 19 games more than Karatsev. The German scored 263 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Karatsev scored 233 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Struff | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 45 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 7.5 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 334/553 | 308/480 |
| %1st in | 60% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 263/334 | 233/308 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 120/219 | 104/172 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 60% |
Struff managed to score 45 aces (7.5 per match). Karatsev recorded 23 aces (3.3 per match). Struff won 79% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Karatsev won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Struff | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 19 |
| Converted | 17/33 | 19/35 |
| % Converted | 52% | 54% |
| Conceded | 37 | 29 |
| Saved | 31 | 24 |
| % Saved | 84% | 83% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 5 |
Struff broke his opponents 17 times with a 52% conversion rate. The German lost his serve 6 times and he saved 84% of the break points that he conceded. Aslan broke his opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Karatsev conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.
| Struff | |||||||||
| Q1 Nardi |
Q3 Karatsev |
R1 Sonego |
R2 Shelton |
R3 Lajovic |
R4 Cachin |
1/4 Tsitsipas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-3 6-1 | 4-6 7-64 7-5 | 6-72 6-3 6-3 | 7-67 6-77 6-3 | 7-65 5-7 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 18 | 16 | 35 | 31 | 35 | 34 | 191 | |
| pts | 75-66 | – | 57-40 | 105-99 | 110-100 | 108-108 | 107-107 | 562-520 | |
| Total points | 141 | 0 | 97 | 204 | 210 | 216 | 214 | 1082 | |
| Winners | 31 | 18 | 50 | 44 | 56 | 64 | 263 | ||
| %Winners | 41% | 0% | 32% | 48% | 40% | 52% | 60% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||||||
| Aces | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 45 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | ||
| 1st in | 39/72 | / | 22/47 | 61/101 | 56/102 | 73/109 | 83/122 | 334/553 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 0% | 47% | 60% | 55% | 67% | 68% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 31/39 | / | 18/22 | 50/61 | 44/56 | 56/73 | 64/83 | 263/334 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 0% | 82% | 82% | 79% | 77% | 77% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/33 | / | 16/25 | 23/40 | 26/46 | 20/36 | 19/39 | 120/219 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 0% | 64% | 58% | 57% | 56% | 49% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | ||
| Converted | 3/7 | / | 4/6 | 2/5 | 3/9 | 4/5 | 1/1 | 17/33 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 0% | 67% | 40% | 33% | 80% | 100% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 37 | ||
| Saved | 6/7 | 0/ | 3/3 | 4/6 | 5/5 | 4/6 | 9/10 | 31 | |
| Saved % | 86% | – | 100% | 67% | 100% | 67% | 90% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | ||
| Karatsev | |||||||||
| Q1 Brancaccio |
Q3 Struff |
R1 Djere |
R2 Van De Zandschulp |
R3 De Minaur |
R4 Medvedev |
1/4 Zhang |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-0 | 6-4 6-2 | 7-65 7-5 | 6-2 7-5 | 6-3 4-6 6-4 | 7-61 6-4 | 7-63 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 18 | 25 | 20 | 29 | 23 | 23 | 154 | |
| pts | 63-44 | 63-43 | 85-78 | 70-54 | 86-85 | 69-56 | 73-61 | 509-421 | |
| Total points | 107 | 106 | 163 | 124 | 171 | 125 | 134 | 930 | |
| Winners | 26 | 28 | 38 | 26 | 45 | 34 | 36 | 233 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 44% | 45% | 37% | 52% | 49% | 49% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 37/60 | 34/51 | 53/88 | 36/56 | 61/95 | 43/64 | 44/66 | 308/480 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 67% | 60% | 64% | 64% | 67% | 67% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 26/37 | 28/34 | 38/53 | 26/36 | 45/61 | 34/43 | 36/44 | 233/308 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 82% | 72% | 72% | 74% | 79% | 82% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/23 | 11/17 | 21/35 | 13/20 | 17/34 | 14/21 | 15/22 | 104/172 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 65% | 60% | 65% | 50% | 67% | 68% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 4/7 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 19/35 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 43% | 67% | 57% | 60% | 100% | 50% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 29 | |
| Saved | 7/7 | 0/0 | 7/8 | 1/2 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 3/3 | 24 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 88% | 50% | 60% | 75% | 100% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
W
WWWWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Karen Khachanov/Andrey RublevKhachanov/Andrey Rublev – Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien RojerArevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Rohan Bopanna/Matthew EbdenBopanna/Matthew Ebden – Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin (5-7 7-63 10-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Borna CoricCoric (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (0-1) – H2H and prediction
