Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari will square off in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 4:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.35
Maria Sakkari -> 3.22
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Maria Sakkari
This will be the 9th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari face off. The head to head is 5-3 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-3 in the semifinal in Indian Wells back in March 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Sakkari – Indian Wells 17-March-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-11 | 30-6 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Sabalenka got to the semifinal after beating Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-4 7-5, Mirra Andreeva 6-3 6-1 and Mayar Sherif 2-6 6-2 6-1.
In the quarter against Sherif, The Belarussian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-2 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 81 points vs Sherif’s 70. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored 2 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 54% of her first serves in, winning 69% (33/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (17/41) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Sherif 6 times after converting 67% of her break points (6/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 67% of her matches (290-144). 7-1 on clay in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled55-33 record in the last 8 years on clay.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Aryna has a compiled 27-4 win-loss record in 2023, 7-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Maria Sakkari
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-16 | 12-7 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-25 | 26-17 | 5-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-23 | 21-12 | 8-5 | 4-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-20 | 23-13 | 9-4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-11 | 12-7 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9, Sakkari reached the semifinal after beating Arantxa Rus 6-4 6-4, Rebeka Masarova 3-6 6-3 6-3, Paula Badosa Gibert 6-4 6-4 and Irina-Camelia Begu 6-73 6-4 6-2.
In the quarter against Begu, The Greek recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-73 6-4 6-2). During the match Sakkari scored 109 points vs Begu’s 99. Sakkari was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Sakkari scored 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Maria Sakkari lost the serve 5 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 58% of her first serves in, winning 60% (32/53) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the 2nd serve. Maria broke Begu 8 times after converting 38% of her break points (8/21).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sakkari has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Maria’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Australia, Linz, Doha and Indian Wells.
Maria has a compiled 19-8 win-loss record in 2023, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 80 | 98 |
| Pts | 294-240 | 347-308 |
| Total Points | 534 | 655 |
| Winners | 104 | 132 |
| %Winners | 35% | 38% |
Both Sabalenka and Sakkari played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set, while Maria Sakkari lost 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Sakkari (9 vs 10). Therefore, Sabalenka played 18 games less than Sakkari. The Belarussian scored 104 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Sakkari struck 132 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 159/267 | 200/317 |
| %1st in | 60% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 104/159 | 132/200 |
| %1st pts | 65% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 56/108 | 66/117 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 56% |
Sabalenka scored 16 aces (4 per match). Sakkari struck 18 aces (4.5 per match). Sabalenka won 65% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Sakkari won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 18 |
| Converted | 21/39 | 18/46 |
| % Converted | 54% | 39% |
| Conceded | 23 | 40 |
| Saved | 13 | 31 |
| % Saved | 57% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 9 |
Aryna broke her opponents 21 times with a 54% conversion rate. Sabalenka lost her serve 10 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Maria broke her opponents 18 times with a 39% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 78% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R2 Cirstea |
R3 Camila Osorio Serrano |
R4 Andreeva |
1/4 Sherif |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-3 6-1 | 2-6 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 16 | 23 | 80 | |
| pts | 67-54 | 80-72 | 66-44 | 81-70 | 294-240 | |
| Total points | 121 | 152 | 110 | 151 | 534 | |
| Winners | 30 | 25 | 16 | 33 | 104 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 31% | 24% | 41% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 46/64 | 41/69 | 24/45 | 48/89 | 159/267 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 59% | 53% | 54% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 30/46 | 25/41 | 16/24 | 33/48 | 104/159 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 61% | 67% | 69% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 15/28 | 15/21 | 17/41 | 56/108 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 71% | 41% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 6/9 | 21/39 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 42% | 38% | 67% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 5/9 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 25% | 50% | 56% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | |
| Sakkari | ||||||
| R2 Rus |
R3 Masarova |
R4 Badosa |
1/4 Begu |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 3-6 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-73 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 27 | 20 | 31 | 98 | |
| pts | 70-57 | 104-100 | 64-52 | 109-99 | 347-308 | |
| Total points | 127 | 204 | 116 | 208 | 655 | |
| Winners | 29 | 42 | 29 | 32 | 132 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 40% | 45% | 29% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 41/63 | 66/104 | 40/59 | 53/91 | 200/317 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 63% | 68% | 58% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 29/41 | 42/66 | 29/40 | 32/53 | 132/200 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 64% | 73% | 60% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/22 | 18/38 | 14/19 | 20/38 | 66/117 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 47% | 74% | 53% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 18 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 5/14 | 2/3 | 8/21 | 18/46 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 36% | 67% | 38% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 40 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 17/20 | 3/3 | 5/10 | 31 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 85% | 100% | 50% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LLWWLWWLLL Tennis Scores in Madrid
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- Kevin KingKing – Daniel NguyenNguyen (7-62 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Petra MarticMartic (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (3-5) – H2H and prediction
