Alex De Minaur and Aslan Karatsev will face off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:30 pm on STADIUM 3. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.51
Aslan Karatsev -> 2.56
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Aslan Karatsev
This will be the 2nd time that Alex De Minaur and Aslan Karatsev play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, De Minaur won 6-4 7-6(5) in the 2nd round in Sofia back in 2020.
Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Aslan Karatsev – Sofia 11-November-2020
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35-12 | 15-5 | 10-5 | 4-1 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 13-10 | 6-5 | 0-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, Alex reached the 3rd round after beating Marco Cecchinato 6-4 7-65.
In the 2nd round, De Minaur had a good straight sets win against Cecchinato (6-4 7-65). During the match, De Minaur scored 78 points vs Cecchinato’s 69. De Minaur was exceptionally aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Regarding the service games, De Minaur wasn’t able to score even 1 ace in the course of the match and he committed only 1 double fault. Alex De Minaur was extremely effective on serve to win 82% (40/49) of his 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Australian broke Cecchinato once after converting 20% of his break points (1/5).
De Minaur has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 63% of his matches (287-169). 3-2 on clay in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, De Minaur has an aggregate54-43 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Acapulco where he beat Tommy Paul in the final 3-6 6-4 6-1.
De Minaur has an overall 15-8 win-loss record in 2023, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Aslan Karatsev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 36-11 | 7-4 | 17-2 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 121, Aslan reached the 3rd round after beating Raul Brancaccio 6-4 6-0, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4 6-2, Laslo Djere 7-65 7-5 and Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-2 7-5.
In the 2nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Van De Zandschulp (6-2 7-5). During the match Karatsev scored 70 points vs Van De Zandschulp’s 54. Karatsev was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
About the serving games, Karatsev recorded 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Aslan Karatsev was pretty efficient on serve to win 72% (26/36) of his 1st serve and 65% (13/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Aslan broke Van De Zandschulp 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to win 56% of the points he played.
Karatsev’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Pune.
Aslan has a composed 12-8 win-loss record in 2023, 7-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 23 | 79 |
| Pts | 78-69 | 281-219 |
| Total Points | 147 | 500 |
| Winners | 40 | 118 |
| %Winners | 51% | 42% |
De Minaur played 1 match while Karatsev competed in 4 matches. Karatsev started his run from the qualifications while De Minaur had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. De Minaur has played 6 set(s) less than Karatsev (2 vs 8). Therefore, De Minaur played 56 games less than Karatsev. Alex scored 40 winners (51% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian scored 118 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 2.8 |
| 1st in | 49/73 | 160/255 |
| %1st in | 67% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 40/49 | 118/160 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 15/24 | 58/95 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 61% |
De Minaur didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Karatsev blasted 11 aces (2.8 per match). De Minaur won 82% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Karatsev won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 1 | 13 |
| Converted | 1/5 | 13/26 |
| % Converted | 20% | 50% |
| Conceded | 7 | 17 |
| Saved | 7 | 15 |
| % Saved | 100% | 88% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
De Minaur broke his opponent once with a 20% conversion rate. The Australian was rock solid on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 7 break points. Karatsev broke his opponents 13 times with a 50% conversion rate. Aslan conceded his serve twice and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | |||
| R2 Cecchinato |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 23 | |
| pts | 78-69 | 78-69 | |
| Total points | 147 | 147 | |
| Winners | 40 | 40 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 51% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 49/73 | 49/73 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 40/49 | 40/49 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/24 | 15/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/5 | 1/5 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 20% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 7/7 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Karatsev | ||||||
| Q1 Brancaccio |
Q3 Struff |
R1 Djere |
R2 Van De Zandschulp |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-0 | 6-4 6-2 | 7-65 7-5 | 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 18 | 25 | 20 | 79 | |
| pts | 63-44 | 63-43 | 85-78 | 70-54 | 281-219 | |
| Total points | 107 | 106 | 163 | 124 | 500 | |
| Winners | 26 | 28 | 38 | 26 | 118 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 44% | 45% | 37% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 37/60 | 34/51 | 53/88 | 36/56 | 160/255 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 67% | 60% | 64% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 26/37 | 28/34 | 38/53 | 26/36 | 118/160 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 82% | 72% | 72% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/23 | 11/17 | 21/35 | 13/20 | 58/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 65% | 60% | 65% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 4/7 | 13/26 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 43% | 67% | 57% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 17 | |
| Saved | 7/7 | 0/0 | 7/8 | 1/2 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 88% | 50% | 238% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWWWLWW
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Dusan LajovicLajovic – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Pedro CachinCachin – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Borna CoricCoric – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Andrey RublevRublev (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Zhizhen ZhangZhang – Cameron NorrieNorrie (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Bernabe Zapata MirallesZapata Miralles (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Christian GarinGarin (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Alexander ZverevZverev (1-3) – H2H and prediction
