Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva will face off in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.25
Mirra Andreeva -> 3.96
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
There is no head to head record between Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), the Belarussian reached the 4th round after beating Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3 and Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-4 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Camila Osorio Serrano (6-4 7-5). During the match, Sabalenka scored 80 points vs Camila Osorio Serrano’s 72. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 59% of her first serves in, winning 61% (25/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 54% (15/28) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Camila Osorio Serrano 5 times after converting 42% of her break points (5/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 67% of her matches (288-144). 5-1 on clay in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a composed53-33 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she overcame Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Sabalenka has an overall 25-4 win-loss record in 2023, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Mirra Andreeva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 34-16 | 18-9 | 16-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-9 | 7-4 | 23-4 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-9 | 21-5 | 18-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 194 (career-high), Mirra got to the 4th round after beating Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-3 6-4, Beatriz Haddad Maia 7-66 6-3 and Magda Linette 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Linette (6-3 6-3). During the match Andreeva scored 68 points vs Linette’s 48. Mirra was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
About the serving games, Andreeva fired 3 aces and she was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Mirra Andreeva lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Andreeva put 64% of her first serves in, winning 68% (25/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 67% (14/21) on the 2nd serve. Andreeva broke Linette 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mirra hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was winning the title the W60 Chiasso where she overcame Celine Naef in the final 1-6 7-6(3) 6-0 and the W60 Bellinzona where she beat Fiona Ferro in the final 2-6 6-1 6-4.
Andreeva has a composed 16-0 win-loss record in 2023, 16-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
The Russian has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 41 | 59 |
| Pts | 147-126 | 224-180 |
| Total Points | 273 | 404 |
| Winners | 55 | 91 |
| %Winners | 37% | 41% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Andreeva competed in 3 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Andreeva (4 vs 6). Therefore, Sabalenka played 18 games less than Andreeva. The Belarussian scored 55 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Mirra managed to score 91 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 5.5 | 3.7 |
| 1st in | 87/133 | 131/210 |
| %1st in | 65% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 55/87 | 91/131 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 24/46 | 44/79 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 56% |
Sabalenka scored 11 aces (5.5 per match). Andreeva struck 11 aces (3.7 per match). Sabalenka won 63% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Andreeva won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 11 |
| Converted | 10/17 | 11/23 |
| % Converted | 59% | 48% |
| Conceded | 12 | 16 |
| Saved | 7 | 12 |
| % Saved | 58% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 4 |
Aryna broke her opponents 10 times with a 59% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. Andreeva broke her opponents 11 times with a 48% conversion rate. The Russian conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R2 Cirstea |
R3 Camila Osorio Serrano |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 41 | |
| pts | 67-54 | 80-72 | 147-126 | |
| Total points | 121 | 152 | 273 | |
| Winners | 30 | 25 | 55 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 31% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 46/64 | 41/69 | 87/133 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 59% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 30/46 | 25/41 | 55/87 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 61% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 15/28 | 24/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/12 | 10/17 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 42% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 4 | 12 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 1/4 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 25% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Andreeva | |||||
| R1 Annie |
R2 Haddad Maia |
R3 Linette |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-66 6-3 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 18 | 59 | |
| pts | 64-50 | 92-82 | 68-48 | 224-180 | |
| Total points | 114 | 174 | 116 | 404 | |
| Winners | 32 | 34 | 25 | 91 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 37% | 37% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 47/67 | 47/85 | 37/58 | 131/210 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 55% | 64% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 32/47 | 34/47 | 25/37 | 91/131 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 72% | 68% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/20 | 17/38 | 14/21 | 44/79 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 45% | 67% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/12 | 4/6 | 11/23 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 33% | 67% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 4/6 | 3/4 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 67% | 75% | 113% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
LWWWWLWLWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Bernarda PeraPera (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (7-63 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Xiyu WangWang (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Alycia ParksParks (7-63 6-1) – See score progression
- Petra MarticMartic – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-3 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Cori GauffGauff (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Mayar SherifSherif – Caroline GarciaGarcia (7-62 6-3) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magda LinetteLinette (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Rebeka MasarovaMasarova (3-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Irina-Camelia BeguBegu – Shelby RogersRogers (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Bernarda PeraPera (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Xiyu WangWang (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Petra MarticMartic – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-3 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (6-4 7-6(2)) – See score progression
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Alycia ParksParks (7-6(3) 6-1) – See score progression
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (7-6(3) 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Petra MarticMartic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Martina TrevisanTrevisan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Irina-Camelia BeguBegu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Mayar SherifSherif – Elise MertensMertens (0-0) – H2H and prediction
