Daria Kasatkina and Lesya Tsurenko will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lesya Tsurenko who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Lesya Tsurenko is the pick to win this match.
Lesya Tsurenko -> 1.9
Daria Kasatkina -> 1.9
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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Lesya Tsurenko
This will be the 5th time that Daria Kasatkina and Lesya Tsurenko play each other. The head to head is 2-2 for Kasatkina and Tsurenko (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Kasatkina won 6-4 7-6(1) in the 1st round in Moscow back in 2018.
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22-13 | 12-8 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 7-8 | 5-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8 (career-high), the Russian reached the 3rd round after beating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-4 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Darya had a good straight sets win against Pavlyuchenkova (6-4 6-3). During the match, Kasatkina scored 70 points vs Pavlyuchenkova’s 55. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Regarding the service games, Kasatkina wasn’t able to score even 1 ace in the match and she committed only 3 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 83% of her first serves in, winning 66% (33/50) of the points behind her 1st serve and 30% (3/10) on the 2nd serve. Kasatkina broke Pavlyuchenkova 5 times after converting 42% of her break points (5/12).
Kasatkina has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (311-177). 4-2 on clay in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Kasatkina has a compiled 111-46 record in the last years on clay.
Darya’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Adelaide.
Kasatkina has an aggregate 9-10 win-loss record in 2023, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Lesya Tsurenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9-11 | 7-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-16 | 31-10 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 25-14 | 8-7 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-17 | 10-10 | 2-2 | 15-5 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-6 | 8-5 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 77, Lesya reached the 3rd round after defeating Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-3 and Jil Teichmann 3-6 6-2 6-4.
In the 2nd round against Belen Teichmann, The Ukrainian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-2 6-4). During the match Tsurenko scored 97 points vs Belen Teichmann’s 92. Lesya was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about serving, Tsurenko was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Lesya Tsurenko lost the serve 4 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Tsurenko put 68% of her first serves in, winning 67% (39/58) of the points behind her 1st serve and 37% (10/27) on the 2nd serve. Lesya broke Belen Teichmann 6 times after converting 46% of her break points (6/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Ukrainian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
The Ukrainian’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Hua Hin.
Lesya has an overall 23-6 win-loss record in 2023, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kasatkina | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 19 | 43 |
| Pts | 70-55 | 162-137 |
| Total Points | 125 | 299 |
| Winners | 33 | 61 |
| %Winners | 47% | 38% |
Kasatkina played 1 match while Tsurenko competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Lesya Tsurenko surrendered 1 set while Daria Kasatkina hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Kasatkina has played 3 set(s) less than Tsurenko (2 vs 5). Therefore, Kasatkina played 24 games less than Tsurenko. Kasatkina scored 33 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, The Ukrainian made 61 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kasatkina | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 0 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 0 |
| 1st in | 50/60 | 89/137 |
| %1st in | 83% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 33/50 | 61/89 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 3/10 | 19/48 |
| %2nd pts | 30% | 40% |
Kasatkina didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Tsurenko also didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Kasatkina won 66% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 30% of the points. On the other side, Tsurenko won 69% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 40% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kasatkina | Tsurenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 12 |
| Converted | 5/12 | 12/24 |
| % Converted | 42% | 50% |
| Conceded | 6 | 15 |
| Saved | 3 | 9 |
| % Saved | 50% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 6 |
The Russian broke her opponent 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Russian dropped her serve 3 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The Ukrainian broke her opponents 12 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Ukrainian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kasatkina | |||
| R2 Pavlyuchenkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 70-55 | 70-55 | |
| Total points | 125 | 125 | |
| Winners | 33 | 33 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 50/60 | 50/60 | |
| % 1st in | 83% | 83% | |
| 1st pts | 33/50 | 33/50 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 3/10 | 3/10 | |
| % 2nd pts | 30% | 30% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 5/12 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Tsurenko | ||||
| R1 Bronzetti |
R2 Belen Teichmann |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 3-6 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 27 | 43 | |
| pts | 65-45 | 97-92 | 162-137 | |
| Total points | 110 | 189 | 299 | |
| Winners | 22 | 39 | 61 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 40% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 31/52 | 58/85 | 89/137 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 68% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 22/31 | 39/58 | 61/89 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 67% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/21 | 10/27 | 19/48 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 37% | 40% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 12 | |
| Converted | 6/11 | 6/13 | 12/24 | |
| Converted % | 55% | 46% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 10 | 15 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 6/10 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | 120% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLWLWLWW
LLWLLWLLWL Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magda LinetteLinette (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Irina-Camelia BeguBegu – Shelby RogersRogers (7-5 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Cori GauffGauff (6-3 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (6-2 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elise MertensMertens – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Bernarda PeraPera (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Xiyu WangWang (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Petra MarticMartic – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Alycia ParksParks (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Maria SakkariSakkari (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Mayar SherifSherif (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Irina-Camelia BeguBegu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
