Matteo Arnaldi and Arthur Fils will play each other in the qualifications of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 3:00 pm on COURT 8. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.43
Arthur Fils -> 2.67
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Arthur Fils
There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Arthur Fils since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-13 | 6-6 | 7-6 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 105, Matteo reached the qualifications after beating Filip Misolic 6-1 6-4.
In the qualifications, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Misolic (6-1 6-4). During the match, Arnaldi scored 65 points vs Misolic’s 49. The Italian was very aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Regarding the service games, Arnaldi recorded 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 67% of his first serves in, winning 65% (28/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 71% (15/21) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Misolic 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Arnaldi has a solid match record in the last 6 years having won 62% of his matches (155-94). 9-2 on clay in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Arnaldi has an overall101-50 record in the last 6 years on clay.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he overcame Raul Brancaccio in the final 6-1 6-2 and the Murcia Challenger where he beat Borna Gojo in the final 6-4 7-6(4).
Arnaldi has an aggregate 19-12 win-loss record in 2023, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
The Italian has never competed in this tournament before.
Arthur Fils
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-10 | 9-5 | 10-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-28 | 15-9 | 14-10 | 7-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-24 | 5-4 | 13-8 | 21-10 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 43-28 | 0-1 | 23-15 | 20-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-26 | 3-2 | 29-17 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 124, the French player reached the qualifications after defeating Reda Bennani 6-2 6-2.
In the qualifications, Arthur had a good straight sets win against Bennani (6-2 6-2). During the match Fils scored 59 points vs Bennani’s 37. Arthur was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about serving, Fils recorded 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Arthur Fils was exceptionally effective on serve to win 88% (22/25) of his 1st serve and 65% (11/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The French player broke Bennani 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).
His best result of the season was winning the title the Oeiras 2 Challenger where he beat Joris De Loore in the final 6-1 7-6(4).
The French player has an aggregate 15-5 win-loss record in 2023, 1-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Arnaldi | Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 16 |
| Pts | 65-49 | 59-37 |
| Total Points | 114 | 96 |
| Winners | 28 | 22 |
| %Winners | 43% | 37% |
Both Arnaldi and Fils played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Arnaldi and Fils have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Arnaldi played 1 game more than Fils. Arnaldi scored 28 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Arthur bagged 22 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Arnaldi | Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 6 |
| 1st in | 43/64 | 25/42 |
| %1st in | 67% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 28/43 | 22/25 |
| %1st pts | 65% | 88% |
| 2nd pts | 15/21 | 11/17 |
| %2nd pts | 71% | 65% |
Arnaldi fired 7 aces . Fils scored 6 aces . Arnaldi won 65% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 71% of the points. On the other side, Fils won 88% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Arnaldi | Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 4 |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/12 |
| % Converted | 60% | 33% |
| Conceded | 2 | 0 |
| Saved | 2 | 0 |
| % Saved | 100% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 |
Arnaldi broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. Arnaldi pretty effective on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 2 break points. Arthur broke his opponent 4 times with a 33% conversion rate. Arthur was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points.
| Arnaldi | |||
| Q1 Misolic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 65-49 | 65-49 | |
| Total points | 114 | 114 | |
| Winners | 28 | 28 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 7 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 43/64 | 43/64 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 28/43 | 28/43 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/21 | 15/21 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 71% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 3/5 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Fils | |||
| Q1 Bennani |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 16 | |
| pts | 59-37 | 59-37 | |
| Total points | 96 | 96 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 25/42 | 25/42 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 22/25 | 22/25 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 88% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/17 | 11/17 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 65% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 4/12 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWLLWWW
WWLWWLLWWW 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Fabio FogniniFognini – Oscar OtteOtte (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas – Ilya IvashkaIvashka (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jeremy ChardyChardy – Hugo GastonGaston (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jason Murray KublerMurray Kubler – Dusan LajovicLajovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Bernabe Zapata MirallesZapata Miralles (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marco CecchinatoCecchinato – Giulio ZeppieriZeppieri (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Kyle EdmundEdmund – Dominic ThiemThiem (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – David GoffinGoffin (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Kaichi UchidaUchida – Benoit PairePaire (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander BublikBublik – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Christian GarinGarin – Marc-Andrea HueslerHuesler (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Sebastian OfnerOfner (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Jurij RodionovRodionov (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Borna GojoGojo – Zsombor PirosPiros (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Marcos GironGiron (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Quentin HalysHalys (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Constant LestienneLestienne (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves – Andrea VavassoriVavassori (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori – Ugo HumbertHumbert (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Yibing WuWu – Alex MolcanMolcan (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maxime CressyCressy – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emilio NavaNava – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (1-0) – H2H and prediction
