Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune will play each other in the semifinal of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 3:30 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.53
Holger Rune -> 2.51
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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune
This will be the 2nd time that Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Rune (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Rune won 5-7 6-4 5-2 ret. in the semifinal in Sofia back in 2022.
Highlights Holger Rune vs Jannik Sinner – Sofia 01-October-2022
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-0 | 7-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8 (career-high), the Italian reached the semifinal after beating Diego Schwartzman 6-0 3-1 ret., Hubert Hurkacz 3-6 7-66 6-1 and Lorenzo Musetti 6-2 6-2.
In the quarter, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Musetti (6-2 6-2). During the match, Sinner scored 60 points vs Musetti’s 37. Jannik was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sinner scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults. Jannik Sinner was very effective on serve to win 77% (24/31) of his 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Musetti 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Sinner has a solid match record in the last 6 years having won 69% of his matches (233-103). 3-0 on clay in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Sinner has a compiled69-33 match record in the last 6 years on clay.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Montpellier where he defeated Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3.
The Italian has a compiled 24-5 win-loss record in 2023, 3-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-11 | 9-5 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9, Holger reached the semifinal after beating Dominic Thiem 6-2 6-4, Matteo Berrettini w/o and Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter, Holger had a good straight sets win against Medvedev (6-3 6-4). During the match Rune scored 61 points vs Medvedev’s 49. Holger was extremely aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Rune scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Holger Rune was very efficient on serve to win 74% (20/27) of his 1st serve and 72% (18/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Holger broke Medvedev 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Holger hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
The Dane’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Montpellier and Acapulco.
Rune has a compiled 16-7 win-loss record in 2023, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sinner | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 55 | 37 |
| Pts | 208-144 | 125-99 |
| Total Points | 352 | 224 |
| Winners | 73 | 48 |
| %Winners | 35% | 38% |
Sinner played 3 matches while Rune competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner surrendered 1 set while Holger Rune hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Sinner has played 4 sets more than Rune (8 vs 4). Therefore, Sinner played 18 games more than Rune. The Italian scored 73 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Holger scored 48 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sinner | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 0.5 |
| 1st in | 95/169 | 62/108 |
| %1st in | 56% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 73/95 | 48/62 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 45/74 | 29/46 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 63% |
Sinner made 6 aces (2 per match). Rune made 1 ace (0.5 per match). Sinner won 77% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Rune won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sinner | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 6 |
| Converted | 12/22 | 6/14 |
| % Converted | 55% | 43% |
| Conceded | 13 | 4 |
| Saved | 11 | 3 |
| % Saved | 85% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 |
The Italian broke his opponents 12 times with a 55% conversion rate. Jannik dropped his serve twice and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded. Rune broke his opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. Holger conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Sinner | |||||
| R2 Schwartzman |
R3 Hurkacz |
1/4 Musetti |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 3-1 ret. | 3-6 7-66 6-1 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 10 | 29 | 16 | 55 | |
| pts | 40-11 | 108-96 | 60-37 | 208-144 | |
| Total points | 51 | 204 | 97 | 352 | |
| Winners | 10 | 39 | 24 | 73 | |
| %Winners | 25% | 36% | 40% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 12/25 | 52/89 | 31/55 | 95/169 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 58% | 56% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 10/12 | 39/52 | 24/31 | 73/95 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 75% | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/13 | 21/37 | 14/24 | 45/74 | |
| % 2nd pts | 77% | 57% | 58% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/12 | 4/6 | 12/22 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 33% | 67% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 8 | 5 | 13 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/8 | 5/5 | 11 | |
| Saved % | – | 75% | 100% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rune | |||||
| R2 Thiem |
R3 Berrettini |
1/4 Medvedev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | w/o | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | – | 19 | 37 | |
| pts | 64-50 | – | 61-49 | 125-99 | |
| Total points | 114 | – | 110 | 224 | |
| Winners | 28 | – | 20 | 48 | |
| %Winners | 44% | – | 33% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | – | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 35/56 | – | 27/52 | 62/108 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | – | 52% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 28/35 | – | 20/27 | 48/62 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | – | 74% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/21 | – | 18/25 | 29/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | – | 72% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | – | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | – | 3/5 | 6/14 | |
| Converted % | 33% | – | 60% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 2 | – | 2 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | – | 1/2 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LWLWWWWWLL Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Fabrice Martin/Andreas MiesMartin/Andreas Mies – Wesley Koolhof/Neal SkupskiKoolhof/Neal Skupski (5-7 6-3 10-7) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-1 7-65) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-1 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrey RublevRublev – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (2-4) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-1) – H2H and prediction
