Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will square off in the final of the Miami Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.74
Jannik Sinner -> 2.1
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 6th time that Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner clash against each other. The head to head is 5-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Medvedev won 5-7 6-2 6-2 in the final in Rotterdam back in February 2023.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner – Rotterdam 19-February-2023
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-10 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, the Russian reached the final after beating Roberto Carballes Baena 6-1 6-2, Alex Molcan w/o, Quentin Halys 6-4 6-2, Christopher Eubanks 6-3 7-5 and Karen Khachanov 7-65 3-6 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Russian defeated Khachanov (7-65 3-6 6-3).During the match, Medvedev scored less points (5) than Khachanov. In fact, the world no. 5 won 88 points vs Khachanov’s. That means that Medvedev was more focused during the important points. The Russian was quite aggressive to blast 48 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev managed to score 13 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (48/64) of his 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Russian broke Khachanov twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a terrific win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (451-181). 23-3 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an overall 204-65 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he overcame Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he overcame Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2.
The Russian has a compiled 28-3 win-loss record in 2023, 23-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-1 | 7-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Sinner reached the final after beating Laslo Djere 6-4 6-2, Grigor Dimitrov 6-3 6-4, Andrey Rublev 6-2 6-4, Emil Ruusuvuori 6-3 6-1 and Carlos Alcaraz 6-74 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal against Alcaraz, Jannik recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-74 6-4 6-2). During the match Sinner scored 117 points vs Alcaraz’s 100. Jannik was exceptionally aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Sinner struck 8 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Jannik Sinner lost the serve 3 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 63% of his first serves in, winning 68% (45/66) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (21/38) on the 2nd serve. Jannik broke Alcaraz 6 times after converting 50% of his break points (6/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jannik has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Montpellier where he defeated Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(3) 6-3.
The Italian has a compiled 21-4 win-loss record in 2023, 14-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 85 | 102 |
| Pts | 284-232 | 360-282 |
| Total Points | 516 | 642 |
| Winners | 140 | 135 |
| %Winners | 49% | 38% |
Medvedev played 4 matches while Sinner competed in 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev lost 1 set, while Jannik Sinner conceded 1 set. Medvedev has played 2 set(s) less than Sinner (9 vs 11). Therefore, Medvedev played 17 games less than Sinner. Medvedev scored 140 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Jannik made 135 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 32 | 25 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 5 |
| 1st in | 178/264 | 177/295 |
| %1st in | 67% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 140/178 | 135/177 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 46/86 | 64/118 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 54% |
Medvedev recorded 32 aces (8 per match). Sinner fired 25 aces (5 per match). Medvedev won 79% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 23 |
| Converted | 13/18 | 23/44 |
| % Converted | 72% | 52% |
| Conceded | 13 | 19 |
| Saved | 10 | 12 |
| % Saved | 77% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 7 |
Medvedev broke his opponents 13 times with a 72% conversion rate. Medvedev conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 23 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||||
| R2 Carballes Baena |
R3 Molcan |
R4 Halys |
1/4 Eubanks |
1/2 Khachanov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | w/o | 6-4 6-2 | 6-3 7-5 | 7-65 3-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | – | 18 | 21 | 31 | 85 | |
| pts | 54-30 | – | 66-48 | 76-61 | 88-93 | 284-232 | |
| Total points | 84 | – | 114 | 137 | 181 | 516 | |
| Winners | 24 | – | 32 | 36 | 48 | 140 | |
| %Winners | 44% | – | 48% | 47% | 55% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 3 | – | 7 | 9 | 13 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | – | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 31/47 | – | 39/53 | 44/71 | 64/93 | 178/264 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | – | 74% | 62% | 69% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 24/31 | – | 32/39 | 36/44 | 48/64 | 140/178 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | – | 82% | 82% | 75% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/16 | – | 7/14 | 12/27 | 16/29 | 46/86 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | – | 50% | 44% | 55% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | – | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | – | 3/4 | 4/6 | 2/4 | 13/18 | |
| Converted % | 100% | – | 75% | 67% | 50% | 72% | |
| Conceded | 1 | – | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | – | 0/0 | 5/6 | 4/6 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | – | 83% | 67% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Sinner | |||||||
| R2 Djere |
R3 Dimitrov |
R4 Rublev |
1/4 Ruusuvuori |
1/2 Alcaraz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-4 | 6-3 6-1 | 6-74 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 31 | 102 | |
| pts | 66-49 | 60-51 | 58-44 | 59-38 | 117-100 | 360-282 | |
| Total points | 115 | 111 | 102 | 97 | 217 | 642 | |
| Winners | 23 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 45 | 135 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 37% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 29/50 | 32/53 | 28/46 | 22/42 | 66/104 | 177/295 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 60% | 61% | 52% | 63% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 23/29 | 22/32 | 24/28 | 21/22 | 45/66 | 135/177 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 69% | 86% | 95% | 68% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/21 | 10/21 | 12/18 | 12/20 | 21/38 | 64/118 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 48% | 67% | 60% | 55% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 23 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/11 | 3/5 | 4/6 | 6/12 | 23/44 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 45% | 60% | 67% | 50% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 19 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 9/12 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 33% | – | 100% | 75% | 48% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWLWWL
LWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Miami
- Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Austin Krajicek/Nicolas MahutKrajicek/Nicolas Mahut (7-64 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-5) – H2H and prediction
